Fred Thompson: McCain’s Worst Enemy
Will Fred Thompson kill McCain’s campaign? He just might:
John Dowd represented Sen. John McCain in his darkest hour, the “Keating Five” scandal. He supported McCain the first time he ran for president in 2000 and signed up to be a major fundraiser for him in this year’s presidential race. But when former senator Fred D. Thompson began thinking about running, the Washington lawyer changed his mind.
For McCain (Ariz.), who started off as the favorite to win the Republican nomination but now trails former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in most polls, Dowd’s move signals yet another threat to his struggling campaign. As Thompson (Tenn.) builds his team of major fundraisers such as Dowd, the challenge for McCain will be to collect the millions of dollars necessary to maintain a nationwide campaign and convince Republicans that he is their best bet to retain the White House.
“I am very sorry to see what’s happened to John,” Dowd said in an interview. “I don’t think his campaign is being well run. It’s been over-managed. He blew through $8 1/2 million. It’s a difficult thing to leave a friend and go to another friend. But we lost the John McCain I knew.”
With the second-quarter deadline for reporting money raised only weeks away, Thompson’s decision to become a candidate comes at a particularly bad time for McCain. After the initial fundraising results this year showed him behind former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Giuliani, McCain reorganized his fundraising staff and promised that the results would become apparent on June 30.
But now Thompson is aggressively pitching himself to conservatives uncomfortable with Giuliani, McCain and Romney, and hoping that he will be seen as a viable — and fresh — alternative to the current Republican field when he announces his candidacy early next month. He has already lined up the backing of a number of prominent Republicans, including George P. Bush, a nephew of President Bush.
I am not sure whether the support of the latter is a good thing or not.
No, I am just kidding of course. It will surely help Thompson in some ways. It will give him more credibility; it will result in the support of Bush loyalists; it will result in more $.
As far as I am concerned, McCain destroyed his own chances already. He tried to appeal to social conservatives, which caused more moderate Republicans to break with him; he’s betting on Iraq / the surge, which I am afraid will not help him; we have McCain-Feingold; and now we have McCain co-signing an incredibly unpopular immigration bill.
Of course, he also made a fool out of himself by bragging about strawling through Baghdad wearing a bullet proof vest, surrounded by 100 troops, backed by a couple of helicopters flying overhead as well.
It will be interesting to see what a Fred Thompson candidacy will do to the other candidates. Quite some people argued that Thompson would hurt Romney the most. Now, the mood seems to change: most people / analysts now seem to believe that Thompson will hurt everybody, of course, but, according to them, McCain will suffer the most.
Thompson will have a great start, but he has his weaknesses as well. He is vulnerable, as are all the other candidates.
Also, to make something clear: if I were American I would be endorsing Mitt Romney. Of course, being a Dutchman, and not an American, makes it a bit silly for me to endorse anyone, which is why I will refrain from doing so. In the end, I think that America will be quite well off anyway – whether Romney, Thompson, Giuliani Clinton or Obama will win; they are all great candidates.
Personally, I think McCain is the one who has proven that he will stand up for his beliefs on immigration, torture and the war, even when they dont’ resonate with the public. True, he has had to bridge the gap between himself and the agents of intolerance, but I believe that he hated himself for doing it.
How much easier it would have been to have Thompson’s advantages. Thompson is well-known by his tough-guy tv role, so he doesn’t have to campaign hard. Thompson is beating McCain in the quest to court the conservative base, even though he has done much less than McCain to earn their support.
Conservatives will always view McCain with suspicion, while at the same time, perceiving Thompson, a genial good ol boy from Tennessee, as one of their own- the natural substitute for George Allen whose act of self-destruction took him out of the race for the nomination. Thompson can just take tough positions and not worry about a recent voting record requiring him to make the tough calls.
If I were Republican though, I would vastly prefer McCain. He believes in his vision for America, and is not just another Reagan clone.
Thompson isn’t a major threat to McCain. McCain is a major threat to McCain… the single biggest threat, in fact. Thompson is simply being Conservative, which will invariably beat someone like McCain.
Wanna know why Bush won the Republican primary in 2000, and not John McCain? It’s rather simple; Bush, Liberal has he can be, was by far the preferable choice to conservatives, as compared to John McCain.
This is further confirmed, currently, by Rudy Giuliani, who happens to be leading McCain in the polls by a significant margin at the moment. Once again, Giuliani as liberal as he is, and has a history of being, is to the right of John McCain. He is therefore more popular among voters…. And in the race between Thompson and Giuliani, Thompson wins for the same reason.
Bottom line: McCain’s worst threat is McCain.
Information about Fred Thompson can be found at: Fred Thompson
Information about John McCain can be found at: John McCain
Information about other Republican Presidential candidates can be found at: Republican Presidential candidates
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Why does every Republican candidate have to pretend to have conservative values? There are many moderate Republicans who don’t care that much about abortion or the party’s hard line on gay rights. A candidate like McCain or Giuliani should be able to run as themselves, not as a faux Reaganite.
Polling seems to suggest Thompson hurts McCain and Giuliani the most but it is hard to sort out the recent disenchantment with Giuliani’s efforts to explain his being for and against abortion at the same time and the backlash over McCain’s efforts to provide visas for those who came to the U.S. illegally.
Romney holds steady though. There is some evidence his supporters are more loyal in their support. His political star is rising steadily and not in one shot of interest, like Giuliani’s and Thompson’s. It will be interesting to see how high Thompson can get with an announcement and how fast it will fall.
By the way, I vote for go ahead and endorse Romney!
Timo: I agree with you about Romney’s potential.
lol – i’m sure you do.
Kim: I agree with that, but how is Giuliani, for instance, behaving like a faux Reaganite? He has taken a pro-choice stance; he is tough on terror, yes, but that’s him… what’s fake reagan about him?
2008 PREDICTION
GORE – EDWARDS
THOMPSON – MC CAIN
2008 WINNERS
THOMPSON – MC CAIN
UNBEATABLE COMBO