Israel challenges report on nukes
The latest NIE assessment hasn’t made Israel, America’s main ally in the region, very happy. “Israeli officials yesterday disputed the conclusions of Monday’s surprise U.S. assessment of Iran’s nuclear program, citing ‘clear and solid intelligence’ that Iran is continuing to develop nuclear weapons to threaten Israel and Europe.”
One Israeli official is quoted as saying: “We have no doubt. If one looks at the investment, if one looks at the nature of the project, if you look at the cost to the Iranian economy, there is no logical explanation other than that the Iranian program is not benign.”
Israel also continues to insist that Iran may have a nuclear weapon within two years time, whereas the NIE states that Iran can’t develop them until 2013. In other words: there’s a major difference of opinion between these two allies. Frankly, we’ve got to ask ourselves ‘whose intelligence is better?’ One wonders in how far Israel and the US are sharing their intel.
US intelligence agencies made a mistake with regards to Iraq. They clearly want to prevent repeating that mistake.
Yuval Steinitz, a Likud Party legislator who sits on the parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee said: “Until now, there were no sharp differences in interpretation. I don’t know of any piece of intelligence that supports this conclusion. It seems to me that this report repeats the mistake of Iraq, but taking it to the opposite conclusion.”
He added: “We have a lot of very clear and solid intelligence, that to my best understanding, clearly shows that the Iranians are developing nuclear weapons today, as they did two years ago. This is not a matter of speculation, but this is about solid intelligence.”
Defense minister Ehud Barak said: “It looks like Iran stopped its program to create an atom bomb in 2003 for a certain time, but as far as we know, it has since probably renewed it. There are differences in the assessments of different organizations in the world about this, and only time will tell who is right.”
Well, yes, but this is one of the cases in which it’s quite disastrous to rely on inaccurate information.
It seems to me that this debate may carry on for a while. As it is, it seems that the NIE is very clear about Iran’s program and that there’s no reason to rush to war. On the other hand, if Israel is correct it seems to me that she should share most of her intelligence with the US… if the US isn’t with Israel on this one, she has a problem. On the other hand, perhaps the US has information that ‘proves’ that the Israeli intelligence isn’t accurate. In that case Israel can stop worrying… for a while.
h/t Instapundit.
The onus is on the contradictors this time – I guess there is a point to bring up things like the cost to the Iranian economy, and it is also important to remember that all the NIE report does is show that the wolf isn’t on the horizon or visibly approaching, but it does not say it isn’t behind it.
The NIE report does however suggest that the current shepherder and his more unquestioning, rumor-spreading supporters are a bunch of attention-seeking, manipulative little tykes who should be kept away from any lupine intelligence-related matters.
I would also like to point out that the prospect of a nuke aimed at Israel by any leader is a bit too out there even Ah… is the subject matter. OTOH, many left-wingers like to say how plenty of the more insane “judeo-christian” Bush supporters happily expect Armageddon and rapture and whatnot when they push for attacks in the middle east – why couldn’t such religious insanity apply to that bastard in Iran as well as those nuts in the “think”-tanks and conference halls?
This is one of those instances where nothing has changed but everything has. The report is an assessment; the facts haven’t changed but our manner of connecting the dots has. Israel, however, continues to connect them the way we were doing before this came out. Frankly I think the Israelis are right to question whether the US intel community is doing a 180 in reaction to being wrong about Iraq- this has been my concern about the direction of American policy in general, because people seem very prone to the logical fallacy that if one course of action was wrong then the opposite one is better. Logically, of course, you can learn from mistakes but then you have to start all over again without prejudicing your decisions one way or the other. The polar opposite of a wrong position is certainly not always the correct one either, because few things (especially things that are complex) are arranged in neat dichotomies.
One reason the report changes everything is that it certainly deflates the more hawkish wing of the Bush administration, making it virtually impossible that an attack will be ordered. That may be a relief to many, but the problem is that it also deflates the chances for a peaceful resolution because the diplomatic route has relied on the threat of use of force being on the table. Europe has cooperated with sanctions and policies to isolate Iran, primarily BECAUSE they sought to diffuse the situation and prevent war. Will they continue to back this route, knowing that Iran’s current suspension of the program could very well be a ruse or a stalling tactic (waiting till conditions once again become favorable to restart the program)? Or will Europe begin to relax- which may very well lead to Iran restarting the program when eyes are diverted?
Another interesting aspect though is the way the Bush administration is handling this. Some are speculating that the declassification was intentional, that it signals the first step toward Washington opening talks with Tehran. Perhaps.
Or, it could be a way to give political cover to the US, and perhaps covertly we will end up backing Israel in an attack. If that were to happen, there’d be plausible deniability- “No, the US was not involved because as everyone knows, our intelligence indicated there was no need for an attack. If our good friend Israel had other information and acted on that, well, we can’t criticize them for defending themselves like that”
For all the hype there isn’t one report of Iran’s acquisition of component materials or super high speed electronics and computers like Pakistan in the 1980’s and 1990’s. ACW speculate that the new evidence is either an Iranian general defector or recent photos gathered by MSM.