Polls: It’s On in South Carolina

December 7th, 2007 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:
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Huckabee leads comfortably in South Carolina, while Clinton and Obama are virtually tied.

The latest Rasmussen polls show that Hillary Clinton isn’t just battling with Barack Obama in Iowa, she’s also having a tough time in South Carolina: 36% of likely Democratic voters in that state say they support Clinton, while 34% say they support Obama. The Republican race is less close but equally surprising: Huckabee doesn’t just lead in Iowa now, he also leads in SC.

25% of likely Republican voters in South Carolina say they support the former Baptist Preacher and former Governor of Arkansas, while 18% say they support Mitt Romney. The same percentage say they support Senator Fred Thompson, for whom South Carolina is a must win state.

With regards to the Democratic race it’s important to remember that Clinton had a 10 point lead only one month ago. That lead has now all but disappeared. The reasons: support for Clinton has steadily declined while “Obama’s overall level of support has remained relatively steady.” Furthermore, “Obama’s showing has improved significantly among black voters. He now attracts 51% of the African-American vote in South Carolina while Clinton picks up just 27%.” One month ago, both candidates attracted the support of approximately 45% of African-Americans in South Carolina.

Huckabee’s rise, then, comes from Evangelical Christians and conservatives. “He attracts from 37% of Evangelical Christians and 29% of conservatives. Thompson currently earns 20% of the Evangelical vote while Romney is supported by 15%.” Romney, on the other hand, attracts more support from moderate elements within the Republican Party.

A month ago, Thompson was leading among Evangelical Christians while Romney was leading among Christians of other protestant denominations. That has now changed: Huckabee is leading in both categories.

The good news for Romney and Thompson? It seems that South Carolina voters will be influenced by the results in other states. The bad news for both? It seems that Huckabee will do very well in at the very least Iowa. When that happens, he’s on his way to success in South Carolina.

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