Huckabee Leads in Iowa, South Carolina and Michigan
As PoliGazette reported a couple of days ago, the surprise of these elections could very well be Governor Mike Huckabee. He’s leading in Iowa, he’s leading in South Carolina, he’s closing the gap with Giuliani and Florida and now, Rasmussen reports, he’s also leading in Michigan, a state that Mitt Romney should be able to win (since his father represented Michigan).
The top three are all virtuall tied, though: 21% of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan say they support Huckabee, against 20% who day Romney and 19% who say Rudy Giuliani.
Michigan’s primary is scheduled for January 15, twelve days after the Iowa Caucus. In other words: the results of Iowa will, undoubtedly, play a role in Michigan. If Huckabee wins Iowa, he could very well win both South Carolina and Michigan as well.
And suddenly, he will be the frontrunner.
On the other hand, of course, the race is tight in those states. If Romney he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and he will win New Hampshire according to the polls) he has a good chance of winning in Michigan as well. And he might do well in South Carolina. Even if Romney only wins New Hampshire and Michigan he will still have a shot at winning the nomination (after all, he’s got the money to go all the way). The first states may be divided between Huckabee and Romney and before Florida ever comes up it may have developed into a two-men race.
And it will then be a question of who can go all the way? Money-wise, I say Romney. Message wise: probably both.
And then Giuliani has to make a spectacular comeback: which is possible, but which is also becoming increasingly difficult each day because he’s losing his lead in virtually every state and nationally as well.
More at AOL’s Political Machine, where Dave writes: “This is a serious blow to both McCain and Romney.” You can say that again.
The race for the Republican nomination continues to be the most exciting one.
Rick Moran also wrote a post about Huckabee, from a slightly less objective angle: “Stop the Huckaboom!”
He’s right to point out that Huckabee doesn’t have a very fiscally conservative record (compared to some of the other candidates). It’s, that and his overly religious talk, one of the things that would probably make me not vote for him in the Republican nomination. On the other hand, it’s less simple than the Club for Growth says it is. He didn’t just raise taxes, etc., he actually Governed very fiscally responsible. And for all the right’s talk about Bill Clinton, and the criticism of him, he was much more fiscally responsible than the ‘conservative’ Bush.
More at Donklephant.
H/t Memeorandum.
Huckabee is more of a wingtard than his ole country boy image has shown.
He will relish those Corporate dollars in his pocket like all the rest of them do.
Larry: I beg to disagree about that. I think that Huckabee is, in that regard, truly different.
No, I wouldn’t worry about him being in the pocket of Wall Street if I were you.
<blockquote>No, I wouldn’t worry about him being in the pocket of Wall Street if I were you.</blockquote
But I would worry about him being in the murdering rapists’ lobby…
…Yeah…
Michael…
I had warned you a few weeks back that the tragedy surrounding Dumond’s parole would rear its ugly head and become a negating factor in Huck’s campaign. The more Huck is perceived as front runner the more this story will appear. If he is nominated, Dumond will become this election’s cycle Willie Horton…
Now some may complain that this is mud slinging, but the reality is that this goes to Huck’s judgment. And politically motivated intervention in the business of a supposedly independent parole board demonstrates poor judgment…
Jim: I think that it will most surely be used against him and I think that if Obama wins the nomination and Huckabee does the same, Obama will win (with relative ease).
I think that Clinton is the woman to beat Giuliani and possibly Romney.
Other than that, I think that Obama may be the best choice if Huckabee wins, McCain wins, Thompson wins and, to a lesser degree, Romney as well (I think he probably loses from both).