Here’s an interesting scenario: Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire, and the race is open in South Carolina, where McCain will finish either first or second. The result? Giuliani 0 for 3. McCain 1 for 3. Huckabee 1 or 2 for 3. Romney 1 for 3. Thompson: three strikes, he’s out.
O, then there’s also Michigan of course where it’ll be either Huckabee or Romney.
If McCain wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, he’ll force Romney to get out of the race. If Huckabee would, then, win Iowa and Michigan it would an incredibly close, and exciting race, between a comeback kid and the surprise hit. All the attention would focus on these two, while Romney, Giuliani and Thompson will be ignored.
Of course, the scenario above is possible, but it doesn’t seem likely. Huckabee and Romney will divide the early states, it seems, between the two of them and – if so – McCain will be down and out, same goes for Thompson. It will then be a race between the two former Governors, with a possible comeback from Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
But that the scenario above is considered says all we need to know about the race for the Republican nomination: it’s still wide open. Anything could happen.
Meanwhile, one gets the impression that Huckabee and McCain get along quite well: when McCain’s campaign heard that Romney would put out an ad attacking Huckabee, it responded by saying that it’s a pity that Romney goes negative and that he, instead, should imitate the behavior and campaign style of the Senator.
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Can McCain win? No. Unfortunately. Too many Reps carry a strong, visceral dislike for him- a carryover from his independence during the first GWB term.
Making predictions again, kreiz?
Caught in the act! Rats. It’s a tough habit to break, Christine, to be sure. But this time, I’m sure I’m right!
It’s correct because my analysis is soundly grounded on the irrefutable Kreiz Presumption: if there’s a candidate I like, he/she is too moderate to win a nomination. That Presumption never fails. This year, it happens to be McCain/Biden.
lol, ahhh. But you also think highly of Romney, right?
That’ll be a problem for Romney.
Kreiz, from now on, oppose the candidate you agree with. Perhaps that’ll work.
A reverse Kreiz presumption with a twist? Hmm… I’ll ponder it, but it sounds like an Olympic dive or a foo-foo drink.
I do like Romney’s even-tempered manner, among other things, though Tully has pointed out that there’s a canine exception to it.
"If McCain wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, he’ll force Romney to get out of the race. If Huckabee would, then, win Iowa and Michigan it would an incredibly close, and exciting race, between a comeback kid and the surprise hit. All the attention would focus on these two, while Romney, Giuliani and Thompson will be ignored."
I crossed my fingers so hard they turned into a double helix, and I now type with one hand (which is something I never usually do).
We don’t want to know what your doing with the other hand.
I had figured McCain would have been done with much earlier than now.
It is a better race with him still in it though.
Huckabee may very well win Iowa, but Romney will win New Hampshire in a walk, with Giuliani and McCain fighting over 2nd place. Nevada is a slugout between Giuliani and Romney, as is Michigan, with Huckabee a poor third in NV and way back in the pack in Michigan. Thompson gets a win in SC or he’s done for–and the polling says it’s too late. Florida is all Rudi’s.
Super Tuesday will determine the front-runner. McCain is just piling up chips to play with at the poker game of the RNC at this point, as is Thompson. Huckabee has to win Iowa just to stay in the game–if he doesn’t take it, his funding will dry up and vanish. Even if he does take it, it’s all uphill for him. Rudi and Mitt are the contenders.