Obama and Romney Lead in New Hampshire
According to the last Rasmussen Reports polls, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are on course to win the primaries of New Hampshire. Romney has a very comfortable lead. The race on the Democratic side is more exciting: where Hillary Clinton should win New Hampshire with relative ease according to most pundits, she’s now trailing Barack Obama by 3%.
Among Likely Republican Caucusgoers in New Hampshire, 33% say they’ll vote for the former governor of Massachusetts. 18% of those polled say they support John McCain, while 15% support Giuliani. Not only that, Mitt Romney is also the #1 second choice for most voters, which is important because quite some voters indicate they could change their mind.
In other words, it could very well be that Romney isn’t just going to win in New Hampshire, he could very well blow the opposition away, which would undo much of the damage caused to his campaign by a possible Huckabee victory in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Clinton’s in real trouble. If Obama wins both in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll have created the momentum necessary to win the Democratic nomination. To a degree this would make sense: Romney and Obama are to a large degree the same kind of candidate, whereas Clinton and Giuliani resemble each other as well.
Obama has done what many considered to be impossible: he has forced Clinton on the defense. Can she adjust? If she can’t, she’ll lose.
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For the first time, I’m thinking that Obama could beat Hillary and win the nomination. Not only is he gaining Big Mo in IA, NH and SC- he has significant cash to challenge Clinton on Super Tuesday. (This is in direct contrast to Huckabee’s GOP chances- where he’s gaining Mo but lacks the Super Tuesday cash to back it up).
Both Clinton and Giuliani have announced strategies to concentrate on the big, populous, urban states, and Iowans and New Hampshirites obviously don’t like that attitude, so it’s no surprise that both of them will trail in those states. And it’s a good illustration of why the electoral college system and our staggered primaries make sense- no doubt all of the candidates would focus on the coastal (blue) states if the race were counted on the popular vote.
Yuckabee!