Lieberman Endorses John McCain
Senator John McCain is having a great week: first two important newspaper endorse him, now Senator Joe Lieberman – the independent – does so as well. Several bloggers / experts such as James Joyner, Roger L. Simon and Marc Ambinder believe that this means that McCain is back.
The Republican race becomes increasingly exciting. Many people – including myself – had declared McCain’s campaign dead a couple of months ago. It now seems, however, that McCain may very well become the comeback kid.
Well, to a degree that is.
As it is, endorsements don’t equal electoral successes. You can talk about a McCain comeback when (and if) McCain starts rising in the polls in important states and when he wins in at least one of those states. If he finishes second in New Hampshire and doesn’t win any other early state, well, it’s a Huckabee-Romney race. What we can say, however, is that McCain is now in the position that he could make a comeback.
And that’s quite an accomplishment.
Meanwhile, we have to wonder what the Huckabee-surge and a possibly McCain-surge will mean for the larger race. Patrick Ruffini has a great post up in that regard concluding that the Republican nomination is now Romney’s to lose.
The race began as McCain-Romney. After, Rudy! Fred! Huck! it would be a particularly cruel joke on the punditocracy should it end that way. But given the depths to which McCain has had to sink to rekindle the flame, he would face Romney in a much weakened state. Indeed, it would be deeply ironic if McCain manages to weaken his good friend Rudy Giuliani in New Hampshire, only to be hand the nomination to Mitt Romney, his arch-nemesis. In this way, a vote for McCain in New Hampshire is a vote for Romney.
So, unless Rudy manages to turn the election into a referendum on leadership-in-a-time-of-crisis in the next three weeks, at least how it stands now, say hello to Mitt Romney as our nominee.
As I see it, it’s a Romney-Huckabee race right now, with the possibility of a McCain comeback and a Giuliani offensive. Many moderates and traditional conservatives will, I think, rally around Romney at this moment in an attempt to stop Huckabee. For McCain to make a comeback, he’ll have to convince Republican voters that he too can stop Huckabee.
And Giuliani? Ruffini is right: he has to change the tone of the debate or he’ll be in trouble.
Also be sure to read this post by co-blogger Dan Pawson.
Interesting that Ruffini thinks this race started as Romney-McCain. When was the last time you could reasonably say, "I don’t know if Rudy is running for president"? 2003? 2004?
Dan: I agree with that. I think you can’t possibly say that it was a Romney-McCain race from the get-go. You’re right to point that out. It was more of a McCain-Giuliani-Romney race.
Rudy has been running so long though that it has become a forgotten reality. Romney vs. Huckabee has only added to this, and now that he’s apparently withdrawing from NH, it makes Rudy even more forgettable.
His Florida strategy is interesting, albeit unlikely to work.
Good on Lieberman and good for McCain. Obviously a better race with McCain staying in it.