Edwards Leads in Iowa, so Does Huckabee
Here are some recent polls: Edwards is – according to one poll – now leading in Iowa, while Clinton and Obama are tied in South Carolina and Clinton has a comfortable lead in Missouri. Governor Mike Huckabee is leading quite comfortably in Missouri as well, while he and Romney are tied in Sout Carolina, just like Obama and Clinton.
The results of the latest Insider Advantage Poll (via Open Left) are:
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 26% (fixed)
Obama: 24% (fixed)
Other: 12%
Unsure: 7%
This poll is great news for Edwards – if he doesn’t win in Iowa, his campaign is over – reasonable news for Clinton and bad, horrible news for Obama. If Obama wants to beat Clinton he has to create momentum. He has to do so by beating her in Iowa. And not just by beating her but also by beating all the other Democratic candidates.
The best possible scenario for Clinton? Winning in Iowa. The second best possible scenario? Edwards winning.
Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics also has a poll up (also Insider Advantage), but then about the Republican primaries. It shows that the difference between Romney and Huckabee in Iowa is decreasing. It’s only 2% at this point in time, according to this poll. This means that Huckabee and Romney could still both win in Iowa. If Huckabee loses there, his chances of winning the nomination diminish, basically. If Romney loses Iowa, he’ll fight back in New Hampshire and it’ll be on in South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, etc.
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Funny how Edwards get almost no media coverage despite doing so well in the polls. Same goes for Huckabee in the polls and Ron Paul and his fundraising. Greenwald has some idea why:
Edwards certainly should – he’s been there since 04 and never left it.
But I think if Edwards places 1st, and Obama makes 2nd – Clinton can still struggle out but it will give Obama a nice jolt.