It’s McCain vs. Romney
It’s truly McCain versus Romney in New Hampshire. Will McCain be able to make a comeback and surprise enemies and friends?
The latest polls clearly show that the primary of New Hampshire will be a thriller: John McCain has closed in on Mitt Romney. He’s now withing 3 percentage points.
28% of likely Republican voters say they support Romney, according to the Globe, while 25% say they will vote for McCain. Last month, 32% of those voters said they’d vote for the former governor of Massachusetts, against only 17% who said they’d vote for the Senator from Arizona.
If McCain wins in New Hampshire, he’s definitely back. The main questions will then be whether he’ll have enough money to compete on Super Tuesday and whether he’ll be able to win in one or two other states before that big day arrives. We will also have to wonder whether Romney can still win the nomination in that case. If he wins in Iowa, he can overcome losing in NH. If he loses in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s got a problem.
The question is between whom the race will then be. Support for Giuliani has decreased significantly, but there are quite some states in which he could win. Thompson should do well, but he has disappointed. If Huckabee wins in Iowa, he’ll surely be one of the main candidates, if McCain wins in NH, he’ll suddenly have a real shot at winning as well. Romney, meanwhile, will still be competitive in some other states and he’ll have all the money he needs to compete on Super Tuesday.
In other words: if Huckabee wins Iowa, while McCain surprises in New Hampshire, well, we’ll probably see a brokered convention. Those two victories would turn the world upside down.
Those who want more security, in that regard, should hope that Romney wins both Iowa and NH. If he does, he’ll instantly be the frontrunner.
Those of us, however, who enjoy a good thriller every now and then (like me) should hope that Romney does well in both states, but that McCain wins in Iowa. Personally, I’d favor a Romney win in Iowa and a McCain win in New Hampshire: suddenly.
Of course I’m prejudiced: these are also the two Republican candidates I think most highly of.
Round-up:
Susan Duclos calls these elections “The Bend Over election.” She explains:
I hear quite a bit about voting for someone that can “reach across the aisle” and work with the opposite party, but that, in politic speak, means somebody that will bend over so that bad legislation can be jammed through the two houses and then signed by a president.
We all lose.
Dan Riehl adds to the poll numbers I already gave:
Romney is seen as the strongest leader over McCain 30 – 25 while McCain is seen as more trustworthy 30 – 23. But, and this is important, when it comes to beating the Democrat nominee in the Fall, Romney wins hands down 34 – 10 over McCain. That’s a big number.
In terms of being able to bring needed change, Romney leads McCain 32 – 18.
Booman: “Anyone who thinks the bigfoot press doesn’t have the biggest say in who our presidents are, is loopy on dope. John Edwards needs to learn how to butter up the press corp a lot better if he wants to be the president…sad, but true.”
Dr. Steven Taylor: “I think that McCain may well be the last man standing on the GOP side when all is said and done. Part of it is that I simply have a hard time seeing any of the other candidates actually winning the nomination, aside from McCain.”
More here.
In response to the false allegations and double standards used against Mike Huckabee by the so-called conservative “Elite Talk Show Hosts” and writers, consider the following;Did the current President and their elected pals in the US Congress uphold their responsibility by holding the line on spending starting in the early 90s? Did the “Elite Talk Show Hosts” and writers help vote them out of office by working night and day mocking their names as dreadfully has they have smeared Mike Huckabee’s name, only after his rise in the polls? Their “Talking Points” propaganda warfare used against a fellow conservative who could very well be more of a conservative than they are provides a good look at their true colors.Comments like “tax and spender”, “not a conservative”, and “soft on immigration” are merely “Talking Points” without specifics and offered in the style of propaganda as Dictators who employ the same tactics to spread only their message with little facts or specifics and/or direct rebuttal from the opposing candidate/s.I have seen enough and prefer not to lessen or watch Rush Limbaugh, Michael Reagan, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham until after the 2008 election. I prefer my news and entertainment “UN-FILTERED!”
I don’t like either McCain or Romney, but I hate Guliani. So I guess I’d take this to be good news.
If you think the Bush policies didn’t go nearly far enough, vote for Guliani.
I’m thinking McCain all the time!
Also, what’s up with political polarization:
http://americanpowerblog.blogspot.com/2007/12/politics-of-political-polarization.html