Study: Israel Could Survive Nuclear War with Iran
A new study says that Israel could survive a nuclear war with Iran. So far the good news. The bad news? The death toll would be incredible: “it could lead to the death of between 16- 28 million Iranian civilians, and 200-800 thousand Israelis.”
It’s one of the main reasons that the Mullahs have to be prevented from developing nuclear weapons: it’s not just about Israel’s safety, it’s also about the safety of the Iranian people themselves. Some will, I am sure, say that the Mullahs won’t attack Israel if they’re 100% sure they’ll lose. Personally I’m not so sure about that. If one looks at what these people believe – and especially at what Ahmadinejad believes – it becomes quickly clear that they actually might be willing to risk it all. Remember: extremists seldom think rationally.
Rationally, they should never even think about attacking Israel. Sadly, however, these people are driven by an extremist ideology. They believe that the killed Iranians would be ‘martyrs,’ and that such a war could potentially lead to Armageddon, which would – of course – mean that God Himself will come to the rescue.
The Iranian people themselves, on the other hand, probably disagree, which is why it’s important for Iran to become a bit more of a democracy than it currently is.
One thing I found interesting: it seems that some American conservatives are gloating over the study. Although it certainly fills me with joy to know that Israel could survive a nuclear war, the prospect of millions of Iranian deaths accomplishes just the opposite. As such, I find some reactions troubling. For instance (of course we shouldn’t pretend that these bloggers at whose blogs these comments were left agree with the sentiment expressed in them. Gaius is a friend, and I know he wouldn’t root for the complete and utter destruction of Iran, but one of his commenters certainly does. Why is that relevant? Because even if bloggers themselves don’t agree with it, quite some readers still seem to cherish the thought of an Iran destroyed by nuclear weapons):
1. And, if you look at the map at the link provided, Iraq is squarely sandwiched between the two “Ground Zeroes” … putting our troops who would be deployed there, right in the middle of the lovely fallout from both sides … not to mention those survivors fleeing from both regions. Would make chaos look like high society …
It’s a lovely thought, eh?
2. Maybe one of the Nukes will go off course and head to saudi arabia…
3. “Maybe one of the Nukes will go off course and head to saudi arabia” A-friggen-men brother!….
The last comment is actually left by the owner of the blog himself, which clearly shows that he is an extremist.
Scary stuff.
It should be mentioned that I still don’t think Ah… actually said that about wiping blah-blah. It might be a mistranslation. Also, I am not so sure the mullahs are so detached from reality.
But there is no doubt that there is a chance (which is enough), and that there is no underestimating the nuttiness of religious extremists. So I’m all for Israel going at some nuclear installations as long as they are willing to not be arbitrary.
"One thing I found interesting: it seems that some American conservatives are gloating over the study."
"Yuhurr if they turn into a glass parking lot, that’ll show ‘em." For being so approving of anything "manly" or "mature" many milbloggers are quite quick to just sublimate everything or fill it with base emotions, throwing big words around without thinking about the implications.
Go read Cordesman’s study before you jump to conclusions. He looks(estimates) at Iran actually having a nuke, with the next steps being boosting and thermonuclear devices with missile improvements. The JP article also addressed the report.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847416688&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
http://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_pubs&task=view&id=4172
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/071119_iran.is&nuclearwar.pdf
All the links above sing with the choir, maybe a reading of the report is warranted. The CSIS study does some technical analysis and comes to the conclusion that Israel would survive, while Iran wouldn’t survive a nuclear war. Fro Ynet:
The Iranians would lose over 30% of their population, the Israelis less than 20%. A few accurate Israelis thermonuclear devices would create an EMF pulse that would destroy Irans civial infrastucture, the Iranians lower yield nukes couldn’t do similar damage. Israel’s existing orbital sattelites could target and assess damage, Iran doesn’t have the capabilities.
Bottom line, name one war where Iran initiated the first strike. Now what about Israel? Their first strikes were in response to Arab armies gathering at the borders, Iran has no borders or ballastic capabilities at this point.
Having different values, particularly relative valuations, and being rational aren’t contradictory. I think it’s quite possible that Iran’s leaders could value the lives of the ordinary Iranian people lightly. Off topic: Michael, how about <a href="http://theglitteringeye.com/?p=3380">sharing a little of your Christmas</a> with us?
My first thought is "who creates these studies, how accurate and useful are they, and who do they serve? The thought of calculating a nuclear holocaust is frightening. I don’t think the average Iranian person (like you or I) has any wish to go to war with Israel or any other country. Much like Vietnam, the majority of their population very young, and far removed from the war or hostage taking incident..I view them (typical Iranians) as normal, forward thinking people, who are confused about their own leadership and the leaders of the countries that oppose them. Face it, Iranians don’t live in caves..they are a country of young people, many unemployed (many enjoying it) and some going to school as long as they can get away with it. They have computers, internet access and access to information outside of their state run propaganda machines..much like us. A few years back, I’ve had the pleasure to chat online with several Iranian people in Yahoo chat forums. After the initial "feeling out" stage, I found them not much different than chatting with anyone else. The whole purpose of this was to see how they felt about the world around them. Like Americans, many didn’t agree with their own countries leadership but also thought the leaders of most other countries were out of touch reality as well. They pretty much thought the US were "bullies" (we never spoke of Israel), they viewed GWB much like many of us do.. a cowboy. The impression I was left with was these aren’t the same people wanting to wipe Israel off the map, they wanted jobs, more spending money, and to left alone. Sure, maybe Ahmadinejad is a crackpot..but I don’t think he speaks for the majority of Iranians. I know the Bush administration doesn’t speak for me.