Hillary Campaign: We’re Gonna Win in Iowa
UPDATE: a newly released Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll puts Barack Obama firmly in the lead. He leads Edwards in the poll by 4%, Hillary by 7%.
Marc Ambinder reports that “Hillary Clinton’s team has revised its turnout model. The same senior campaign source who projected a turnout of 140,000 voters is now predicting that 150,000 voters will show.” Not only that, the source also says that, “according to the turnout model the campaign is employing, Clinton will finish a strong first on the strength of turnout from Democrats.”
Obama’s campaign also believes that 150,000 will show up, but Obama chief strategist Axelrod believes that the increase in voter turnout will be because independents go out to vote in large numbers this time around.
The battle is on. We’ll see who’s right later today. Clinton’s challenge is to get as many Democrats out to vote as possible, Obama has to focus on independents (and even moderate Republicans). The question is: whose supporters will show up? A high turn-out does not mean that Obama will win, not automatically at least, because it might also very well mean that Clinton has succeeded in getting registered Democrats to the polls.
Only a couple of hours and we’ll know!
Ed Morrissey predicts: “For the Democrats, I think this poll has it correct, and it finishes Obama-Edwards-Clinton. The Republicans wind up with Huckabee beating Romney by three points, and John McCain finishes third, followed by Thompson and then Paul.”
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Newsflash! John Doe’s campaign predicts their candidate will win!
Update at 11.
Lynx: lol, really?
On the other hand, if she doesn’t win, but if Obama wins, it’ll be a major defeat if she’s saying she’ll win even on the day of the primary. She could also say: "we’re satisfied if we aren’t far behind" or something like that or "we expect it be very close. We need everyone to go out and vote."
Actually the Clinton campaign said that yesterday. Downplayed expectations, I don’t really view it as newsworthy though as every Candidate has to say – we’ll exceed expectations yet at the same time say We accomplished what we wanted.
Hillary will win the nomination, but she’ll lose in Iowa. That’s conventional wisdom. She was never consistently strong in the polls. You have a senator from a neighboring state and a former senator that made Iowa his second home after the 2004 election.
Obama and Edwards must occupy the top spots. Hillary has less to lose.