The latest Des Moines Register poll indicates that Iowa Independents prefer the Democratic candidates over the Republican ones.

“Turnout for the Democrats is projected to be higher than Republicans, perhaps double,” DRM reports.

If this is true, not just for Iowa, but also for the rest of the nation, the Republicans will have a major problem later this year. They’ll have to reach out to Independents. For the Democrats, of course, this is good news, especially if Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster pointed out that the Democrats seem to have succeeded - in Iowa at least - in energizing the base and Independents at the same time: “It isn’t always true that what energizes your base energizes the independent swing voters. But the Democrats are finding their footing and finding that what energizes our base energizes independents.”

Frankly, I’m not so sure about that. If Obama becomes the nominee, the base will undoubtedly vote for him, but I don’t know whether they’ll do so in a passionate manner or in a “well, he’s better than the other guy” way. If one looks at liberal bloggers it quickly becomes clear that Obama’s support isn’t coming from the liberal base at this point in time, but from moderate Democrats and Independent voters. In fact, he’s heavily criticized by before mentioned base.

Blue Texan is busily celebrating the DRM poll over at FireDogLake, but I think that Democrats have to be cautious. Very cautious. As I see it, Independents aren’t siding with the Democrats because they think so highly of Bill Clinton’s party, but because they’re disappointed in the GOP. If the Republican Party, however, changes it ways - or better, becomes truly fiscally - at least - conservative, while reaching out to moderates on other issues, Independents will return.