Today, the people of New Hampshire will let the country – and the world – know who they want to be both parties’ nominees. What’s at stake?
Later today, the people of New Hampshire will cast their votes. They will tell the country and the world who they believe should represent both parties. The favorite among Democrats is Barack Obama, the slight favorite among Republicans is John McCain. In this post I’ll take a look at what a McCain victory, and a Romney victory, will mean. What’s at stake?
As I see it the answer to that question is relatively simple. If McCain wins, Romney’s campaign will be put on life support. It would require a miracle for him to make comeback.
The interesting thing about Romney is that he’s one of only two candidates who can appeal to all kinds of conservative voters (together with Fred Thompson). If he loses today, Republicans will basically have the choice limited to a moderate Republican (McCain), a social conservative (Huckabee) and a fiscal conservative but socially liberal Republican (Rudy Giuliani). Of course, Thompson would still be there as a solid conservative choice, but he seems to be unable to create momentum.
New Hampshire Republicans will decide about the direction the GOP will take. Will the GOP nominate a solid, all-around conservative, or will they nominate either a moderate or someone who’s unacceptable to at least one of the conservative groups?
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I have to disagree, at least in part, about the Republican side. A win or very close second in New Hampshire would certainly help Romney’s cause, but a more distant second, or even third doesn’t (in my opinion only) put him on life support yet. Several viable candidates are lying in the grass and could seize huge numbers of delegates on super duper Tuesday. The only way I see this changing is if somebody picks up real momentum before Feb. 5th. And to have real momentum, they need to put together at least two and preferably thee wins in the early states. If the early GOP primaries keep going to different candidates (one for huck, one for McCain, one for Romney…) then everyone in play still has a shot on Feb. 5. That includes Rudy, Mitt, McCain and even Huckabee.
I wouldn’t count out Thompson. Romney is not an across-the-board conservative. He’s flipped on abortion, and he’s soft on taxes. A win for McCain in NH is good for Thompson. It’ll weaken Romney further, and then SC voters will have to decide between Huckabee, Romney and Thompson. Huck is his main opposition, there. Romney’s religion will be a liability there, not an asset. Thus, if Thompson can finish first or second in SC after a McCain win in NH, he’s in good shape to rally for Super Teusday. Guiliani’s long-haul strategy (expounded in a "leak" to National Review Online) will fail, because he won’t have enough in NH and SC to generate momentum. But if Rudy does pull off a coup in Florida, though, and Thompson has a good showing in SC and in other places on Super Tues, then we’ve got an open covention, it would seem.
Michael,
Congratulations on always placing very well on google! It makes me read you a good deal lately. Do you agree that Romney will lose in Michigan to Huckabee as a populist or McCain as a favorite of indie/democrats since Obama is not on the ballot there?
The MSM is ignoring the fact that the night of Iowa Thompson said he was going to S.C. He will win that state. When he does he will get his Newsweek cover. The attacks? The first marriage (which ended after they had raised their children and in such a way that his first wife supports him fully), indolent lymphoma (not lifethreatening) lazy (50 events in 17 days in Iowa and career accomplishments most would dream of) have all already happened and have not stuck. The media hates Fred because they thought Romney was Souter and would be more like Guiliani than Thompson. Fred Thompson does believe the process to elect the President is broken in terms of the punditocracy and the "debates" that have become 20 second responses to a talking snowman, but he does want it and he will pick up the support of those who bought Romney on electability, especially after he wins S.C.
Will Rudy fade entirely? No. He and Senator Thompson will split February 05, with Thompson picking up a good number of California delegates and sweeping the South.