John McCain: Frontrunner
The latest CNN polls show that the man who started off as the Republican frontrunner, but who then fell back tremendously, John McCain is frontrunner once again.
McCain has the support of 34 percent of registered Republicans in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Friday. That’s a 21-point jump from the last CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken in December, well before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary earlier this month.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa Republican caucuses, is in second place in the new survey, with 21 percent of those registered Republicans polled supporting him for the GOP nomination
Former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani is in third place with 18%, he’s followed closely by Mitt Romney with 14%.
This poll clearly shows just how important New Hampshire was. If Mitt Romney would’ve won in the Granite State, he would undoubtedly have the support of perhaps as much as 20% of Republicans nationwide. Since McCain won, however, he is the one who’s surging.
This is good news for McCain and it confirms the notion that McCain would quickly become the Republican frontrunner. Especially in combination with the knowledge that he’s also leading in the polls in South Carolina and Florida. O, and he’s also do well in Michigan.
As Ed Morrissey points out however, “[a] few caveats are in order about the CNN poll. The sample isn’t exactly sturdy. It only includes 397 registered Republicans, not likely primary voters. This doesn’t make for a reliable predictive model, but at least one can see some trends that won’t make the rest of the campaigns terribly happy.”
But the Michigan and Florida polls look more reliable and they also indicate that McCain is surging.
The conclusion: at this point in time, John McCain is the Republican frontrunner. He’s one of the few candidates that could convince the conservative coalition to rally behind him. He is, in a way, a logical compromise candidate. In my opinion not the best compromise candidate (I think that Romney and Fred Thompson are better compromise candidates), but a reasonably good one nonetheless.
O, and as Pete Abel said on PoliGazette Radio yesterday, moderate Republicans probably welcome this development. McCain could convince conservatives to vote for him and his nomination would probably make RLC Republicans quite happy.
Do these polls mean that the race is over? No. Absolutely not. Rudy Giuliani can still make a comeback, Romney may actually win in Michigan, Huckabee could win in South Carolina… no. Nothing has been decided yet.
Oh yeah, let’s just cut taxes but not spending. OVER 50% OF THE INCOME TAX IS USED TO PAY INTEREST ON THE DEBT. What kind of simpleminded poltroon cuts taxes without reducing the debt so we don’t have to pay it anymore?!?! Only Dr Paul has really given thought to this problem, apparently. He knows that just like individual credit card debt, paying the minimum payment is MADNESS! His message hasn’t changed either – stop expanding our money supply. See, when we buy imports SOMETHING has to go over there. When it isn’t goods, it’s money. We just keep printing more and more money, so we can get the goods without shipping any of OUR goods over there. It’s just that simple. If you’re not enjoying the $3.00 gas and $5.00 milk and fresh fruit that costs more than steak, it’s just as simple as voting for Dr. Paul in the primaries. Besides, he’s the only one running that could beat ANY Democrat.
According to Matt Tabbai of Rolling Stone, the big political story this year is how fractured both parties are- with the result being that the primaries are wide open. I think he’s right. McCain’s surging right now, but that could easily change if Huckabee rallies in SC and FL. I can easily foresee a muddled Super Tuesday, with Romney lurking in the background.
Political parties are no longer top-down institutions where the elites direct their minions how to vote. If there’s a coalescing process around McCain developing, it’s percolating from the bottom-up- presumably outside of the GOP’s evangelical base. I think it’s too early to discern that right now.
On rereading, your caveat stood out- at this point in time. Used to think this was a bit of overlawyering- but in today’s political climate, it’s an absolute must. Romney’s apparent surge in MI polling shows that.
Kreiz: exactly. Remember: I think that we’ve learned that it’s not a prediction of future votes as much as it is a sample of what people might do if they had to vote today (or better: yesterday or even the day before). The other polls put Romney (firmly) in the lead in Michigan, and if he wins… who knows what happens. Will conservatives flock to him? Will conservatives vote for Romney and will McCain’s support be based still on independents? And if so, what will huckabee supporters do? Will they stand by their man? If so, it continues to be a three-men race. O, and then there’s South Carolina. Can Thompson win there? If so, it’s a four-men race. And Florida, what’ll happen there?