McCain Leads in Florida Polls
But only within the margin of error. According to recent poll by the St. Petersburg Times Romney and McCain are now statistically tied after Thompson exited the race. Apparently two out of the seven percent of Thompson supporters went McCain’s way. Why? I’ve given this a lot of thought and I am convinced that there is only one possible explanation for their defecting to McCain.
They just really dig geezers.
In truth I think it has to do with authenticity. Because whether or not you love or hate Thompson you have to admit that he is what he is. The same can be said for McCain. So while Romney picked up the three percent of Reagan loving conservatives that want to back a potential winner that isn’t John McCain. McCain picked up the two percent of supporters that want a leader rather than a politician. End result? A tie. However with Giuliani and Huckabee tied for third place at fifteen percent all McCain has to do is siphon off enough Rudy supporters to eke out a win. And that’s actually a possibility.
Cross posted at Dyre Portents











If Romney and McCain are statistically tied, that’s not McCain leading.
Check the link and you’ll find that McCain leads by the margin of error. As a rule I always factor that in the negative when it comes to the poll winner.
Dyre: it’s worth noting that 2% went to McCain, but 3% to Romney.
It’s way too close to call right now.
I agree about the authenticity factor though; I’ve come to realize that that’s an important ingredient for me. I’d rather differ on some issues or philosophy with a more authentic person, than have the same degree of difference from someone who seems to be telling people what they want to hear. I guess that’s because one thing I value in a leader is a person who’s willing to do the right thing even when it’s not the popular thing; if you elect someone who governs by the polls (or by calculating how his base will react to any particular decision), then you’ve negated the effect of representational government which isn’t supposed to be a direct democracy.
Isn’t it a bit more complicated than that? After all Huck and Capt 911 are both in free fall and those supporters are going somewhere.
I’ve also read that there’s still great fluidity among the people reporting that they support one candidate or another. If I remember correctly, something like 50% of those reporting that they’ll vote for Mitt or for McCain still say they may change their minds- so other than trends I don’t see how you can make any assessment whatsoever about the final outcome at this point.
Thanks for pointing that out Michael. Fixed.
As Michael surmised, the GOP nomination is still wide-open. Obviously, a Romney FL win would be huge- it’s probably a must-win for Mitt. A McCain win would be big but not absolutely necessary. Can’t help wondering if a narrow FL McCain win will translate to huge Super Tuesday momentum. Guess it’s still a win, right?
John McCain standing next to Obama or Hillary in the general elec is going to have the Bob Dole effect. I hope the florida voters keep that in mind.
I don’t get how Fl. is a must win for Mitt. Fl. is a GOP only show and a winner take all. Independents have buoyed McCain. Mitt out of all of them can survive $$ wise till Super Tues. and could win Fl.
Florida’s not a must-win for Romney, he just has to be close, and not come in third or fourth. He’s been building a solid and VERY well-funded organization. It’s close to a must-win for McCain because his bankroll is getting awfully thin. Without the cash infusions a win would bring he’s gonna be really scrounging for the cash to compete effectively against Romney on Super Tuesday.
Florida IS a must-win for Giuliani. It’s the key piece to his Super Tuesday strategy. Without the FL mo’ he’ll wash out. Huckabee is already a goner.
McCain’s two sons are serving this country. As a pilot, John McCain proudly served. He undeniably loves the United States. He respects the rule of law and understands the complexities and dangers facing our world. I, for one, will sleep a lot better at night knowing that President John McCain’s steady hand is at the helm.Let’s give him a chance. He’s earned it.
Valerie,
Please don’t think that you have to be in the military to love or serve our country. Though I have a great deal of respect for our soldiers, serving in the militry is certainly not the qualifier. Being nominated to run as the President of the United States is an awfully big reward for serving in the military or having a military family as you would suggest with your, "He has earned it" statement.
Did you know that after Mitt Romney "cleaned up" the 379 million dollar Olympic deficit, and made a 100 million dollar profit, and donated a million dollars of his own funds to the venture that he donated his 825,000.00 salary to charity? Every penny. A shallow person may suggest that he is so rich that he probably didn’t even notice it. However, nearly a million dollars is NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS! He worked his behind off as the CEO to reroute the 2002 Olympics and was in no way obligated to give his salary to anybody, but he did! So he worked for free. I wonder why? Possibly for love of his country. Possibly because service is part of the Romney character which if you were to actually research this candidate you would find out that he has served his community, church, and country in multiple capacities.
I would also like to point out that John McCain has been the Senator of Arizona for twenty-two years. Arizona is the most overrun state in the US with illegals. I know the frustration of citizens in the border states because I live in Texas. Try getting into the emergency room here. My last wait with a sick child on a weekend was nine hours! NINE HOURS!!!That is before my child was even seen by a doctor, or nurse. I have insurance and yet I can not get out of the hospital without writting a check for my co-ay and my deductible. The non-English speaking illegal family that was directly acrossed from me was not only provided an interpreter at tax payer expense, they walked out without pulling a penny out of their pocket.
John McCain’s idea of fixing this infuriating problem is to provide amnesty for 20 million people who broke our laws by sneaking into our country in the first place! He cozies up with Kennedy, the most liberal of the liberals, to create the "perfect" amnesty plan!
PLEASE…DON’T TELL ME JOHN MCCAIN HAS EARNED ANYTHING! HE SHOULD HAVE HIS BUTT KICKED!!