Just to add something to Dyre’s post: yes, that one poll has McCain in the lead, but other polls have Romney in the lead. In fact, I think it’s best to say that the two are probably tied while Mitt is surging. The trend is in his favor, which is a very important development (polls aren’t always accurate about %, but they are good indicators of trends). And Giuliani’s done.
PoliGazette Comments Policy
PoliGazette encourages comments from all viewpoints, especially those that disagree.
Comments submitted must, however, adhere to the following standards. Comments that violate
these standards may be edited or deleted without notice at the sole discretion of the editors.
Commenters who repeatedly or egregiously violate these standards or who attempt to argue
publicly with editors regarding the comments policy may be banned from commenting further.
(1) Comments should address the substantive content of the post. Comments that repeatedly
or blatantly misrepresent the content of the post or of others' comments are not welcome. Comments that
respond to something other than which the contributor or commenter may have said are irrelevant and should
not be posted.
(2) Comments should avoid vulgarity as well as racial, ethnic, religious, or sexual bigotry.
(3) Comments should not personally attack the character, personal integrity, or professional
reputation of any PoliGazette contributor or of other commenters.
(4) Comments should reflect the contributions of the commenters themselves and should not
include extensive cut-and-paste reproductions of others' words except insofar as necessary to supplement
the commenter's own arguments. Link spam, trackback spam, and propaganda spam will be instantly deleted.
(5) Public figures are considered open to all substantive criticism of their policies and statements.
Comments that present objectively false factual information about public figures (i.e. "Obama is a Muslim") or
that attack public figures by attacking their families are not welcome. Comments that merely repeat
slogans for or against a candidate without engaging in substantive comment are not welcome.
Questions or challenges to these policies or their application should be directed to the editors
by email only.
On Twitter
I just looked at the graph of RCP averages since May of last year* and they seem to tell a slightly different story. For the bulk of that time McCain and Romney have been within a few points. Around September Romney started to climb and pulled a bit above McCain. His rise has been fairly stable over that time with a drop in early January that now looks like a hiccup as his numbers are back to about where his trend since September would place him. In January after his showing in Iowa and NH McCain made up all of that ground and more leaping into a several point lead over Romney. Now they are more or less tied. There is still considerable volatility but it seems that both are moving up, but McCain’s movement is more dramatic.
* at OTB
Mitt is surging. It appears that the race is coming down to a Leiberman Republican or a true conservative. If Mitt wins Florida then the nomination will go to Mitt. If not, he is likely done.
By the way, the only reason Huckabee has had any attention at all was due to the anti-mormon sentiment among evangelicals in Iowa. Hopefully the bias is fading.