It seems that John McCain will win Florida in the general elections. At least, he would win if the elections were held today. In the latest poll, he beats Barack Obama with 47% against 37%, and Hillary Clinton with 49% against 40%. In what’s clearly a bad sign for Obama, there’s this: “About 80% of Republicans are behind McCain. Only 66% of Democrats are behind Obama and 72% are backing Clinton in one-one-one match-ups with McCain.”
In other words, Florida Democrats aren’t willing to get behind Obama. 17% of them say they’ll vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic candidate. Another 17%, also significant, say they’re undecided in such a match up.
13% say so “with regard to McCain-Clinton.”
That’s significant, but as MSNBC points out, one should also keep in mind that “[t]hose numbers though could be a reflection of McCain being the presumptive nominee and Obama and Clinton still engaged in a fight for the nomination.”
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Hard to say what these numbers indicate while Obama and Clinton are still scrapping. Seems to me McCain’s numbers have gone up across the board as the disaffected portion of GOP has undertaken to talk themselves into the guy who has won the nomination. He’s probably gotten an anti-NYT bump as well. We’ll know a lot better how the general election is shaping up once both dance cards have been inked.
Those numbers are only for today. Floridas economy is heading the way of Michigan and California. Housing starts are terrible. Homes sales are worse. If the economy continues to slide while Republicans run Florida and the POTUS, Democrats may have more at the polls come November. In 2000 the vote was very close, the seperation in the hundreds. Why will 2008 be different?
If I were a Clinton supporter, there would be an enormous incentive to claim in a poll I would vote for McCain over Obama. Electability has become one of the arguments this primary season. If a lie to a poll will help my preferred candidate look more electable, why not go for it?
That may not be the motivation for the answers this poll was getting. But I sure wouldn’t bet against it.
Obama has not devoted any resources to Florida, and hasn’t campaigned much in the state. So, the results seem a bit premature.
Kritter: as far as I know that’s not correct. He has spend millions in Florida, more than Hillary if I’m not mistaken.
Obama’s ad before the Florida primary was a national ad, it wasn’t targeted to Florida. Obamama and Billary were supposed to avoid Florida, but Billary flew in to claim a victory. McCain has current media exposure and Crist campaigning for him in Florida. Seems the locals were upset at Charlie when he stood up a United Way charity fund raiser, which he committed to earlier, to hob nob with McCain in Arizona. He back tracked and snubbed his buddy John.
First, I wouldn’t count Obama out anywhere, because his pattern has been one of coming from behind and decimating the double-digit leads of his opposition (as he has consistently done against Hillary)
Secondly, He has done very well in states where he has a large organization and where he has been able to make many appearances. As Rudi noted, he didn’t campaign actively in Florida–while John McCain did.
Just so you know, I am actually for Clinton-but Obamamania is knocking her out. If he can do that well against a machine like the Clintons’, I’m wondering how he will fare in November against a GOP candidate who has alienated part of his base, and who has struggled to raise funds.