Ohio and Texas Polls Update
The latest Ohio and Texas polls are good news for Senator Hillary Clinton. As we all know, she had a double digit lead in both states once, but that lead had almost disappeared in Ohio in recent weeks and had completely disappeared in Texas. In fact, Barack Obama led Clinton in Texas polls only a week ago (in some by as much as 4% – 6%).
In recent days, Clinton was closing the gap in Texas. According to McClatchy, Obama’s lead in this state – quite a Clinton stronghold it has to be said – has (just about) disappeared. McClatchy has Obama in first place with 46% followed by Clinton with 45%, only 1% less.
In Ohio the situation is even more positive for Clinton: “Under the most optimistic, traditional Democratic primary turnout scenario, she is winning big” there, according to a Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll. With such a turnout she’ll win with 56% against 40% (for Obama). That’s a huge gap. In the most – for Clinton that is – negative scenario, she still leads, albeit with single digits.
A McClatchy Poll has it much closer, yet it also has Clinton in the lead (with 4%).
If these elections have taught us anything it’s that polls have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. They’re simply not as reliable as they once were… and that says a lot according to many of my American friends. But I still maintain that although polls may not have the exact numbers correctly, they’re generally good at detecting and perhaps even predicting trends. The trends, then, are hopeful for Clinton.
In Ohio the trend has Obama closing in on Clinton for weeks… yet it seems he has run into an eight feet brick wall. He has closed the gap to some 4%-6% but doesn’t seem to be able to come closer.
Texas trends are also speaking in Clinton’s favor. They have her closing the gap with Obama, thus rising in the polls.
There’s no need for Clinton to give up yet, and Obama’s campaign’s calls on Clinton to withdraw from the race were, certainly, premature. Clinton hasn’t won Ohio and Texas yet, and she may very well lose one, or perhaps even both of them, but we won’t know that until election day (March 4).
One can’t help but wonder what this all means for November. The author of this article can’t help but get the impression that John McCain is having the time of his life. He has used the past month to unite the party, to suck up to the conservative base, and to solidify his lead. He’s now truly considered to be the Republican nominee and he’s behaving as such.
Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama continue to fight against each other, and thereby weakening each other. No matter who comes out at top, it seems to me that he or she will be weaker than McCain going into the general elections. Yes, there will still be time to turn that around, but the Democratic candidate – it seems to me – may very well have to fight an uphill battle.
Luckily for the Democrats, the media are on their side.
admin: You might be….mistaken if you think insulting people is the way to win them over to your side. Edit your comment to exclude personal insult and it will be welcome here.
"Luckily for the Democrats, the media are on their side."
How so? Media are all over the spectrum. Various media entities have lied and spread unsubstantiated innuendo about all of the candidates, at one time or another. Obama has clearly gotten it the worst, with falsehoods told about him:
The "Muslim" school. He might be a Muslim. He’s not a Christian. Where’s his flag pin? He hasn’t worked with Republicans in the Senate. He’s never passed legislation. He "plagiarized." He hadn’t answered the question about Farrakhan. He had a Cuban Guevara flag on his campaign headquarters’ wall. Comparisons to Hitler. Comparisons to Saddam. Comparisons to bin Laden. A comparison to David Duke. His wife is a black militant. His church is separatist. He refused to disclose earmarks. He’s never visited a factory. He hasn’t outlined plans for fighting terrorism or paying for health care. He wouldn’t be running if he wasn’t half-black. He said he’d invade Pakistan. He made a little girl cry. There are discrepancies in his book. He’s like a serial killer. He compared himself to Christ. He’s a wuss. He’s a pothead. He’s dodged all the tough interviews. He and his wife don’t sleep in the same bed. He was endorsed by Castro. He doesn’t support the troops. Despite reams of info on his website and mentioning policy in speeches, he lacks "substance."
Ironically, in actual fact, it’s media coverage of this horserace that lacks substance. I’m glad that Obama’s doing well regardless, even though he’s not my ideal candidate.
Either Obama or Hillary are better than what we’ve lived with for 8 years… They are both bright, intelligent and can delivery a speach (right there, their ahead!!!!)… and lets face it, all politicians are crooked, they always have been – that’s just an ugly truth. It’s part of the smooze they need to give….
Personally, I feel that law-abiding Americans have lost their rights….. the right to discipline their children (I don’t mean abuse – but then you’d have to ‘define’ it first), the right to speak their mind – everything now is terrorism. People are afraid to say or do anything and we live in a government managing people with fear.
I am against forcing people to pay for health care. It is a RIGHT to get it at a reasonable cost for those wanting it…. However, if I choose not to go to a dr or dont’ believe in medicine or choose to die in my own home if I have a disease – that is also my right.
Seems to me that our medical care will be determined by the gov’t… how far will they go… what we eat? – how we live? Good intentions pave the road to hell. I don’t like smoking – but whether it’s good or bad, people have the right to smoke – especially in their own home. We are just losing so much freedom, doesn’t even feel like the same country anymore……..Oh, and the people who aren’t US citizens, get our benefits but don’t have to pay into them….. what’s wrong with that picture.
I’d like to know why the press is not saying anything about the fraud trial between the Clintons and Peter Paul. …. Shouldn’t the press be demanding Hillary release her tax returns? For someone that claims that the press is "against" her…they seem to be giving her any easy ride.
I think you’re right. Something has happened in the last 72 hours which is suggests a trend towards Hillary. I don’t know if it is the red phone ad, Obama slipping up over NAFTA or something else.
I have to give her credit, she has stayed on message and Barack has been seeming a little arrogant (there is plenty of time to spar with John McCain AFTER you secure the nomination).
I don’t think casting Hillary Clinton as the defeated has done him any favours. People love nothing more than to root for the underdog….