The Latest Ohio and Texas Polls
Open Left has the latest Ohio and Texas polls. As usual, you should take them with a (huge?) grain of salt. But, also as usual, it should be pointed out that most polls – especially when combined – are valuable in so far that they can depict trends reasonably accurately. So, with that in mind, lets take a look at the numbers:
A wave of new Ohio polls was just released, all showing Clinton ahead:
Survey USA: Clinton 54%–44% Obama
PPP: Clinton 51%–42% Obama
Rasmussen: Clinton 50%–44% Obama
Q-poll: Clinton 49%–45% Obama
Clinton appears to have Ohio in hand. The new, nine-poll average in the state shows her ahead Clinton 49.4%–42.7% Obama. Also, one new poll from Texas:
Rasmussen: Obama 48%–47% Clinton
Here’s another Texas poll, which has… Clinton in the lead:
Hillary Clinton has jumped out to a six point lead in Texas, according to the newest survey by Public Policy Polling. In a poll taken last week the two candidates were tied. Clinton now leads Barack Obama 50-44. The difference maker in Texas is the Hispanic vote. Clinton is dominating that demographic (67-30), nearly as much as Obama is winning the African American vote (78-13).
This basically means that Barack Obama seems to be incapable of closing the gap in Ohio. He has made the gap smaller, but he doesn’t seem able to close it. Instead, these latest polls show a different trend: not only is Obama not coming closer, Hillary Clinton seems to be expanding her lead.
With regards to Texas, Chris Bowers explains the trend quite well: “The new average in Texas shows Obama 46.6%–45.7% Clinton. There has been favorable movement for Clinton in a few recent polls there, giving her a chance to win the primary portion of the vote.”
In short: tomorrow is going to be an exciting day. Clinton’s the favorite in Ohio, Texas seems to go either way (with Obama being the – slight? – favorite). If Obama wants to push Clinton out, he has to win at least Texas.* If he loses in both Texas and Ohio he has a problem.
* It has to be said that Clinton could decide to go on even if she loses in Texas (by a small margin). In the end, Obama has to win. Winners have to be able to close the deal. If a candidate can’t, he or she isn’t a winner. Or, at least, so could one argue.
This is the first article i’ve seen out of nearly 100 to put Clinton ahead of Obama in Texas. I can only conclude that this research was not very thorough.
Clinton is leading in Ohio, but by most accounts her lead is within the margin of error, and Obama leads by a smaller margin in Texas.
The kicker is that the margin of error favors Obama as his momentum has steadily closed the once double-digit gap in both states.
Its important to note that there is no way Clinton can win the nomination given her 130 pledged delegate deficit. Her only hope is to drag this out to the convention but she is too far behind to close the gap. Obama can wrap this up with a win…Hillary can make this a long and nasty fight that favors the Republicans. Those are our two options.
Go, Hillary! noone asked Obama to give up when he had a 100 or so point lead. And everyone keeps trumping, "he won 11 states". But democrats don’t "win" states. They win delegates proportioned according to votes. If he is 107 delegates ahead of Hillary, he is only ahead by 7.7%. Hmmmm. Sounds like Obama fans are big on enthusiasm but not math.
why people makes difficult 4 nothing, everyone knows obama is best man who can bring ameca back, but because some people dont believe change , still think about clinton, i’m from rwanda, in 94 america was powerfully country, could stop that genocide who was peresident that time? everybody knows, clinton is not hero , that’s why his wife must stop now to let obama to change .
Nice cherrypicking from the new polls, especially in texas. But I’ve looked at the polls too, so I know you’re fudging a bit here in your spin for Hillary’s sake. I basically agree with you about Ohio. Obama has closed the gap SUBSTANTIALLY in Ohio since super tuesday, but does not seem to be able to get over the hump. I’ve been saying for 2 weeks that it looks like Hillary will most likely hold on in Ohio. If the polls are right. Not a new development. What the Texas polls show is that Obama swept past Hillary in the past few weeks, and that he has been holding a small lead in almost all of these polls. He has consistently had this SMALL lead in most Texas polls every since he passed her a couple weeks ago. I think your inversion of the situation by declaration (Obama has to win?yeah, right) is kind of funny. Hillary was way ahead in both Texas and Ohio as of super tuesday. Obama has since then piled up wins in a bunch more states, many by big margins, and closed the gap in two big stalwart Hillary states. She’s the one under the sword. If Obama wins it’s over, if Hillary wins she stays alive.
Go Barack !
I think Hillary is going to take Ohio. She has been on message there and the campaign has been run tightly the last week or so. Throw in what seems to be a blunder by the Obama camp on the Canadian communication regardig NAFTA and I think she is going to a lot of undecideds. I see her taking that state 55-45.
Texas things are a lot closer. Obama seemed to be pulling away, but given the huge latino vote, the red phone ad & again the NAFTA issue and it is not unimaginable to see a Clinton win. If the Hispanics show up for her, and I think they will, the state she’ll squeak it. If not, Obama will squeak it. Either way, they fight on.
I feel that she seems to have turned the tide just in the dying moments so this latest Texas poll could be accurate.
I don’t think there is going to be any clear winner from tomorrow’s outcome but it seems the tide may just be turning in Hillary’s favour. However, there is 6 weeks until Pen State votes and we have all seen what Obama is capable of doing to a Clinton lead if he has the time.
It is VERY exciting & I’m not even American!
I predict Hillary to win tomorrow. Republicans are more aghast at the thought of Barrak Obama being President than they are of Hillary Clinton, and since the Republican primary is basically over, why not pick the Democratic nominee one could best live with. Plus, Texans don’t fear strong women leaders. We have a long history with them. Ann Richards and Kay Bailey Hutchison, for example.
wow, you gotta love american voters, not that long ago, they decided to elect a retarded, drunk, deserter, warmonger over an intellectual war hero (Kerry), and over a Nobel prize winner( Al Gore). Now, with the opportunity of bringing back the prosperity of the Clinton years, they lean towards an empty suit, with cute words who in the last 3 years nobody can name a single thing he has done for his constituents in Illinois. It’s not time to change the president, it’s time to change the voters.
Billary can win Ohio, but not here in Texas….
who will really take the phone at 3:00 in the morning? Bill or Hill
Obama can
[admin] This is the second time you put inappropriate commentary on the blog, the exact same comment at that. Third time will be a charm and you will be banned.