My, my. Today is going to be a very exciting day. Either today will be the end of Hillary Clinton’s campaign or today will mark her comeback. O, and then there’s also a third option: today won’t decide much. As it is, the latest, the truly latest, poll suggests that it may very well be the second option given. According to Zogby Clinton has created some serious momentum and is now, on the day of the elections, ahead of Barack Obama in Texas.

The telephone surveys show Clinton had a second consecutive good day, and now leads Obama 47% to 44% in Texas.

Quite some people criticize Zogby (mostly because he, umh, is seldom right), but so be it. We’ve got to work with what we have. What doesn’t give Zogby a whole lot of credit is that, according to him, Clinton and Obama are tied in Ohio. This while most other pollsters have Clinton in the lead in that state.

That doesn’t mean that he’s wrong about both polls, of course. Perhaps he’s even right about both. Or he’s right about one, but wrong about the other. Which one then?

In any case, Zogby does notice a trend, one we have all noted. In both states Clinton has the momentum going. In both states Obama is, according to Zogby, down some 3%. Josh Marshall, rightfully, comments:

Bear in mind that Zogby is actually an outlier in having it even close in Ohio and there now seems little doubt that, if the polls are to be credited, the late movement is all in Clinton’s direction.

Aside from the Zogby poll, another Texas poll has been released today: and the result, with regards to Texas, is basically the same. Insider Advantage has Clinton leading in Texas as well, by five points.

Clinton: 49%
Obama: 44%
Undecided: 7%

Assuming that late breakers tend to vote for Clinton in Texas today, she may have a better chance of winning (the popular vote at least) in Texas than many people thought.

Then again, polls will be polls.

The pollster himself concludes: “It is entirely possible that we have missed the mark here, given that so many pollsters have shown Sen. Obama with a growing lead. But I would note that the most recent surveys all indicate a tightening of the race; and also that the breakdown by demographics in our survey is amazingly similar to the PPP numbers. If nothing else, it appears that Texas truly is up for grabs.”

We’ll see in a couple of hours.

Jonathan Singer, meanwhile, breaks down the potential consequences:

 In this situation, it still seems very possible that Clinton will win the popular vote in the primary tomorrow, which seems to be a benchmark her campaign is shooting for so as not to drop out. In such a case, it would be quite possible, if not likely, that she would gain fewer delegates out of the state than Obama — and even fewer delegates in the primary (not just in the caucuses that follow the primary) due to the breakdown of delegates among state Senate districts…

At the same time, it’s very possible that the popular vote total will turn out the other way and Obama will score his upset victory in Texas. In such a case, Obama would likely get a momentum boost — or at least stop the possibility that Clinton will get a significant momentum boost — while also helping pad his overall delegate lead. What’s more, with an Obama popular vote win and delegate win in Texas, there would be a great deal of pressure on Clinton to drop out (Bill Richardson laid out the argument yesterday) given the near impossibility at that point that Clinton would be able to regain a pledged delegate lead before the convention. Whether she would drop out in such a situation I don’t know (and I even think she doesn’t know at this time).