Good News From Iraq: The Mahdi Army Is Back
Well, good news. Depends on one’s definition of good. If one believes that good means that Iraq is even more chaotic than usual, it’s good. If one believes that success equals good well, it’s not such good news after all. So what’s going on? Well, it seems that the Mahdi army is back.
7 months ago, the Mahdi army agreed to a cease fire. Since then, its fighters laid low. However, suddenly they started fighting again:
Rockets fired from the capital’s Shiite district of Sadr City slammed into the Green Zone Tuesday, the second time in three days, and firefights erupted around Baghdad pitting government and US forces against the militia allied to the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
At the same time, the oil-export city of Basra became a battleground Tuesday as Iraqi forces, backed by US air power, launched a major crackdown on the Mahdi Army elements. British and US forces were guarding the border with Iran to intercept incoming weapons or fighters, according to a senior security official in Basra.
The US blames the latest attacks on rogue Mahdi Army elements tied to Iran, but analysts say the spike in fighting with Shiite militants potentially opens a second front in the war when the American military is still doing battle with the Sunni extremists of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
“The cease-fire is over; we have been told to fight the Americans,” said one Mahdi Army militiaman, who was reached by telephone in Sadr City. This same man, when interviewed in January, had stated that he was abiding by the cease-fire and that he was keeping busy running his cellular phone store.
The fact of the matter is that the US and its allies, and the Iraqi government obviously, need Shiites to stop fighting for a while. The US et al. first have to put down Sunni led violence, after that – if necessary – they can do something about Shiite militias.
But now, they’re forced to fight a battle on two-fronts. As most will know, military leaders always try to prevent such a battle; it’s difficult if not impossible to win it.
If this development continues, expect to hear more bad news coming out of Iraq in the coming weeks and months. If Shiites start fighting on a grand scale again, the surge will have been useless.
The surge will have been useless? That’s a big statment.
MIchael, there are a couple angles that article doesn’t cover at all.
First, the reason the Mahdi Army is kicking up its heels is because the Iraqi government has been conducting a series of raids on members of the group. In Basra, especially, the Iraqi Army is fighting to take control back from the city.
Second, the Mahdi Army and Moqtada al-Sadr are right now not acting necessarily as a "sectarian" group. They are, and always have been, a tool of the Iranian government. Sadr was trained there, he’s visitied there several times for advice and funding, and his army uses Iranian equipment. When General Petraeus said a few days ago that Iranian munitions were attacking the Green Zone, he was referring to those very close ties between Iran and Sadr.
Third, and I haven’t seen thing reported anywhere (though I think I saw a comment somewhere from Michael Yon who knows about the dynamics there better than just about any journalist in the world right now), the Iraqi government is a majority Shia government. The Mahdi Army is the largest Shia militia in Iraq. The Shia government is taking on the biggest Shia militia and is winning. That’s a very big deal. I do not believe that fact will be lost on the Sunni, though it seems to be in the MSM.