ElBaradei: Iran Can Have Nuclear Weapons Within 6 Monts – 1 Year
Jolly good. Via Holly comes this video at Memri of IAEA director-general Mohamed ElBaradei saying that Iran is able to produce nuclear weapons within six months to one year time. Most of you will remember that progressives often argue that Iran won’t be able to develop nuclear weapons any time soon. Well, ElBaradei -not exactly a hawk to put it mildly – disagrees. And quite strongly so.
Mohamed ElBaradei: “If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least… Considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has…”
Interviewer: “How much time would it need?”
ElBaradei: “It would need at least six months to one year. Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon.”
Interviewer: “Excuse me, I would like to clarify this for our viewers. If Iran decides today to expel the IAEA from the country, it will need six months…”
ElBaradei: “Or one year, at least…”
Interviewer: “… to produce [nuclear] weapons?”
ElBaradei: “It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly-enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon.” [...]
And what does the good man have to say about preventing Iran from developing them? Well, “In my view, a military strike would be the worst thing possible. It would turn the Middle East into a ball of fire.”
Now, what’s so fascinating about ElBaradei is that he seems to be more obsessed with politics than with doing his job. His job is to monitor the nuclear developments of countries, such as Iran, and to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons. That’s what he should be concerned about. Instead, he’s concerned with what countries may do when other countries ignore the UN and develop nuclear weapons regardless of world opinion.
He then said that if the West would attack Iran now, to destroy its nuclear facilities, he would resign because there’s “no need” to attack. No, such an attack would only be defensible at the very last moment meaning… when exactly? Military strikes have to be planned quite carefully. What’s more; it’s not exactly wise to take a lot of risks when it comes to nuclear weapons and extremists. Following ElBaradei’s plans will result in one simple thing: Iran, with nuclear weapons.
No, the time has seemingly come for the West to talk about how to resolve this issue. If we don’t act, Israel undoubtedly will. That will create an even bigger mess. If Iran wants, it can develop WMDs within six months time. Lets say we give them six months more; at that moment they may be able to develop weapons within three months time if they use the time to expand their nuclear facilities / produce more nuclear material in the meantime (instead of immediately producing such a weapon now). Then we have to plan an attack, find good targets, negotiate with the world, and especially with countries in the Middle East…
Shorter story: time is running out.
"Most of you will remember that progressives often argue that Iran won’t be able to develop nuclear weapons any time soon."
Just progressives? Come on, Michael. The U.S.’s own National Intelligence Estimate (produced by the Bush administration controlled Director of National Intelligence mind you) says that they won’t be able to have the material for a weapon until 2010, and at the latest, 2015.
So, is it sometime in 2010 or December 2008? Well, it wouldn’t be the first time that U.S. intelligence was wrong since Bush took office, so the IAEA might be right.
Just as a constructive criticism, I found your post alarmist in tone. Alarmist reports and suggestions about Iran’s nuclear ambitions are better left to the warmongers among the U.S. Republicans, not bright people like you.
I don’t doubt that Iran wants nuclear weapons, but we have two reports saying two different things. I think a better idea is needed before anybody gets too antsy, because we can’t afford not to be ready to stop them, but we also can’t afford to be too gung-ho to do so.
When it comes to Iran, I’m definitely a hawk Michael. And I believe we should ring the alarm bells.
Editor-in-chief,
When it comes to Iran, you are not the only one to be a hawk.
Iran is frequently portrayed as a backward and fanatically fundamentalist tyrannical outpost. As a result of constant repetition, most of us believe that we have a fairly accurate image of Iran. But, do we really?
Buried under a deluge of negative reports, there are some news articles in the mainstream media that contradict the common view of Iran. It is the aim of this weblog to highlight a collection of stories published in The Wall Street Journal, The Times of London, BBC, the New York Times, Reuters, etc. which tell a different story about this much maligned nation.
http://www.bibijon.org/iranimage/
Michael, if it definitely is the case they’ll have them in six months, I agree. But here are two conflicting reports about when they’re likely to have weapons grade uranium.
Who’s right and who’s wrong? That’s just what I want to know. Seems to me that if there was any time my would actually listen to the U.N., it’d be now.
My question about this comes from the idea that when it comes down to it, I know who’ll be expected to provide the most troops and money for any attack on Iran. Not on a high horse here, just that it’s the way things seem to go.
Why are we even gambling with Iran? The incentives to not enrich could easily exceed a TRILLION dollars for the Iranian economy over time.
Were Iran’s ambitions to achieve electricity only, that type of incentive would surely prevail. That is real money and acceptance into the world economy. The average Iranian lives on around $3600 p/yr. Its citizens would benefit enormously.
Simple deduction concludes that the theorcratic regime is operating from an idelogical perspective and a monetary one as well: The country could demand even more money once it is nuclear equipped. and meet its goal of strategic deterrence. Alas, military action is the only method to preclude Iran’s acquisition of nukes.
The world may as well prepare for the confrontation. Should the world not act, Israel will do so. A military conflict, and resulting fallout, is inevitable at this juncture.
Just so I understand:
What exactly is it that a 3000 year old surviving civilization is going to do with this "one" nuclear weapon?
You jump on any nonsensical hypothetical question that a news anchor poses to Hillary or ElBaradei and then you use the equally nonsensical answer as statements of facts to get worried about. Get real.
http://www.bibijon.org/iranimage/
Let Iran have nukes….so what!…… Israel has them!!! it’s called : BALANCE OF POWER!
Why are we even gambling with Iran? The incentives to not enrich could easily exceed a TRILLION dollars for the Iranian economy over time. Were Iran’s ambitions to achieve electricity only, that type of incentive would surely prevail. That is real money and acceptance into the world economy. The average Iranian lives on around $3600 p/yr. Its citizens would benefit enormously. Simple deduction concludes that the theorcratic regime is operating from an idelogical perspective and a monetary one as well: The country could demand even more money once it is nuclear equipped. and meet its goal of strategic deterrence. Alas, military action is the only method to preclude Iran’s acquisition of nukes. The world may as well prepare for the confrontation. Should the world not act, Israel will do so. A military conflict, and resulting fallout, is inevitable at this juncture.
As an Iranian who knows the west and her 500 years history too well, it is interesting to read your perspectives on a 70 millions Iranian human beings (idiots and savages in your eyes). When stupid Chinese (the old colony) were getting their new burn bomb so many Western thinkers(!) got on the same faked panic. The difference is that Iran doesn’t even have the bomb. Nothing happened to the old core when Almond eye Chinese got it, nor after dark Indians, Pakistanis, Koreans, or European settlers in Palestine go them. My dear fellow patriotic thinkers, please calm down. Best wishes for a better end for all of us. A
why is it that the u.s. ignore the fact that israel has nukes ? and wants to punish a country that doesn’t have one ? why do they want israel to have a monopoly on nukes in the middle east ?
as small as israel is, it shouldn’t want 1100 missiles raining down on it. ‘NOWHERE TO HIDE’ !!
To Iranina Enablers:
The profound difference between Iran and all other examples of countries achieving nuclear weapons is that the radical theocratic regime is apocalyptic. No other govt with nukes has ever held such views.
Ahamdinenutjob believes that the 12th Imam speaks to him literally and advises him on the engineering of his return. A holocaust would expedite Islam’s 2nd coming according to the Iranian clerics.
Furthermore, Iran’s geographical position enables it to threaten the Straight of Hormuz with nuclear weapons. It could effectively impact the world’s oil supply. It has previously attacked shipping in the Gulf.
Individual Human nature: Course # 101
We get in to a fight :
We use our Fist first, then You pick up a Stick then I pick one up! I pick up a rock and you pick one up! I get a Knife then you get one! I get a gun then you get one! I get and airplane then you get one! on and on till…………. YOU get a NUKE! …… then I get one! now we can DESTROY each other for good!!!!
I pick up the telephone and YOU answer! now we TALK and try to work things out…… Mexican stand off ….Balance of power
Any questions??????
To Joe Lennar:
The ‘Christians’ have the SAME thing a little different twist….. it’s called the ‘Pre tribulation Rapture’
They think, SMUGLY God is going to take them away in the clouds……. and the rest of us worthless ’sinners’ will SUFFER! (revelation)
You can hear this crap every Sunday in almost every chuirch in ameriKA!
Some ‘ Christian’ Leaders like John hegae in Texas are trying to EXPIDITE the ‘ tribulation’ …….. so GOD will come get them because they are ’special’ and the Jews and others that reject ‘Jesus’ will Glow & ROAST!
So much for Christian LOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Regards!!!
Actually, what ElBaradei said that IF Iran is attacked, Iran could decide to build nukes…but that there is no reason to attack Iran and Iran’s nuclear program poses no threat to justify such an attack.
But hey, why let nuance and accuracy get in the way of scaremongering?
2008 – 2012, Nostradamus, The Bible
*** Nostradamus:
http://www.nostradamusonline.com/
*** Google (http://www.ufodigest.com) :
1) The Bible and the Third World War – the 1000 Year Kingdom
2) The Bible and the Invisible UFOs
3) Messiah – His Spaceships
4) They Are Here
5) Astronauts of Antiquity, etc.
*** NASA AND PLANET X:
http://www.australia.to/story/0,25197,23040466-937,00,00.html
*** Details in the book "Planet Eris and the Global Warming" (can be found at Amazon).