Poll: Obama and McCain Virtually Tied
It seems that Obama’s recent flip-flopping has cost him quite some support; the latest Newsweek poll has him virtually tied with John McCain. If elections were held today, 44% of the American voters say they would vote for the Democratic nominee, against 41% who say they support the Republican one. That difference is within the margin of error.
What’s most interesting about this recent Newsweek poll is that the same pollers concluded one month ago that Obama had a 15-point lead. That means that Obama isn’t just suffering a bit nowadays, it means that he has suffered a lot. As Ed Morrissey writes, ‘there is a definite momentum away from Obama, especially within the independents. June’s poll, taken only three weeks ago, had Obama ahead by 12 points, 48-36. Obama has lost a whopping 14 points among independents and now trails McCain, 34-41. “Undecided/Other” rose among independents from 16% in June to 25% in July, which likely shows flirtation with third-party candidates such as Ralph Nader and Bob Barr — but some went to McCain as well.’
Of course one has to keep in mind that elections are most certainly not held today, but four months later. In politics, four months is eternity. There’s a lot that can and will happen. A lot will change.
For now, however, McCain has reason to be more confident, while Obama should start to worry a bit. He’s losing ground, and quickly so.
That being said, I believe that there’s no reason for Obama to panic. Not just yet anyway. He’s still in the lead and I think that his campaign has to keep in mind that flip-flopping – or ‘readjusting’ – always costs support in the short term. The long term may be an entirely different story altogether, however. Two months from now, people will have forgotten that Obama ‘readjusted’ constantly after he secured the Democratic nomination.
McCain should be encouraged by the new poll; Obama is more charismatic but it does not have to be a walk over. McCain could, in theory, win this thing. If he wants to win it, however, he will have to run a better campaign than he has done so far. He will need to choose a great running mate, and he will have to let the RNC do a lot of work for him. He needs to get both the base and independents who support him to campaign for him out there on the streets. The main difference between the two men right now is that Obama has a movement going, while McCain does not. If he wants to win, he will have to start a similar movement; this means that he will have to come up with a clear message, and communicate it constantly, time and again. The old Bush approach, you could say.
More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics.
I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one seeing this. Like I said flip flopping is and of itself not bad until it denigrates the very principals upon which you stand and run for office.
Barak Obama is pandering to money. Pandering for votes and he is doing the very thing he promised not to do. That is why his flip flops are hurting him but again it will be the energy crisis and his wedding to a democratic party that has no solutions that will most likely do him in in November.
He should be ahead by 20 points and its nearly a tie.
Umm, it should be pointed out that a USA Today poll published around the same time had Obama up 48/42; a Pew poll from around the same time had Obama up 48/40. So Obama seems to be, on average, leading McCain by about the same amount as he has the last few months.
I certainly don’t like the idea of an Obama presidency, but I wouldn’t try to give myself false hope by focusing on what seems to be an outlier poll. There’s a reason that the betting folks are giving Obama odds of 3 to 1….
I guess it depends on which polls you look at. Every poll that I’ve seen, for the last two months, has Obama ahead 0-4 percent. Always ahead or even, never behind. But not by much. Still, given the margin of error in these things, I doubt that anything less than a 4$ deficit would be worth regarding as news. Unless, of course, it’s a slow news day….
One poll equals what you want it to be. Desperation… Delicious desperation.
Obama’s numbers have been falling steadily since Feburary. Obama did well in the primaries where Democrats usuallyw ith the general election, Hillary did well in states that Democrats want to take.
I see Obama beating McCain in Arizona in polls today. Nothing points one way right now. What really interests me is immigration. If McCain is troubled on that issue it could be over quite quickly, methinks.
I see Obama flip-flopping on several issues, but the one that disturbs me the most is on campaign funding. This sounds like an individual who will compromise his principles for political gain. I have on the other hand seen McCain compromise political gain to follow principles that drive him. The choice is becoming quite clear.