Rasmussen, the poll with quite some credibility, has released its latest poll; and it can be safely said that this poll will encourage John McCain and Republicans in general, while Democrats and Barack Obama are worried by it. The poll has the two men tied. This while Obama had a lead for weeks, months even.

It becomes even worse for Obama when ‘leaners’ are included. Leaners are voters who have not made up their mind yet, but who are ‘forced’ to choose a candidate for the poll. When these leaners are included, McCain leads Obama by 1%; 47% against 46%.

This is for the first time since Obama effectively clinched the Democratic nomination that McCain holds ‘a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort’ and is, therefore, important. It seems that Obama’s trip to Europe may not have given him the bounce he hoped; not only has it not given him a bounce, instead it seems to have given the McCain campaign the opportunity to attack him on his weaknesses.

As if the above is not enough, Obama now also trails McCain when it comes to favorability ratings; 51% of voters have a favorable opinion about Obama, against 55% who think rather positively about the Republican leader McCain. This number is the ‘lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination.’

When it comes to these ratings it is important to look at what certain voting blocs (Democrats, Independents and Republicans) think. This too spells trouble for the Democratic nominee: ‘Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.’

Obama has lost ground on several issues, most important perhaps energy. ‘Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue.’

One of the main problems for Obama is how people think about him: ‘Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that’ US society is ‘generally fair and decent.’ Although Republicans like to give voters the impression that Obama thinks quite negatively about the US, he makes it rather easy for them to do so by his own actions, words and affiliations. This could constitute one of the main problems for the Democratic leader.

For now it seems that the Republicans’ approach to Obama is working. The GOP seems to succeed in depicting Obama as an arrogant man who dislikes the US and who sees racism everywhere (even where there is clearly none). Additionally, according to this poll increasingly less voters consider Obama an authority on any issue other than ‘change.’

Of course it should be remembered that we are only in August now. Things can change rather rapidly, and my guess is they will in the coming weeks and months. Obama may not win the elections - this is not what I am saying. Rather I am saying that it is likely that a couple of weeks from now Obama will once again lead McCain, perhaps even quite comfortably, and that a few weeks after that, the two could very well be tied once again. And in between, and perhaps after, McCain will undoubtedly hold a lead.

Lastly it has to be pointed out that the trend is in McCain’s favor; he has closed the gap for weeks, and has now overtaken Obama. Other polls too indicate that support for McCain is rising, while Obama’s support is dropping (or at least not rising). Trends are important.

Other bloggers:

John Sudbay for AMERICAblog:

I’ve had a bad feeling about the direction of the campaign for the past couple weeks. We’ve been saying for months that McCain and the GOP would go negative, very negative. No surprise. That is what’s happening. Karl Rove and his crew are at their best destroying people and they’re running the show now. The latest tracking polls seem to indicate that McCain’s negative attacks are having an impact. The corollary is that Obama’s response hasn’t been working, or at least it hasn’t been enough. That needs to change, fast.

Matt Lewis for TownHall:

I’m of the opinion that the more people learn about Barack Obama, the worse it is for him. Obama is charismatic and highly likable, so his first impression is very positive. But the more people learn about his positions and background, the harder it will be for him to be “all things to all people”…

McCain’s campaign has finally started creating that perfect storm. I think you’ve got to give Steve Schmidt some credit for that. McCain won the week last week, because for the first time this cycle, the McCain campaign had a consistent message and was able to begin crafting a negative narrative to define Obama as out-of-touch. Schmidt has been at the helm for less than a month, but he was able to turn Obama’s trip into a positive for McCain (or, at least, make it a wash). Not bad at all…

the main point is that Obama is not running away with this race. And I think that once voters realize there is a real chance of one-party control by the Democrats, the better McCain will look …

Joe Gandelman:

We’ve repeatedly said here that a single poll is not as significant as a trend. Between this and the Gallup Daily tracking poll which basically puts the race as a dead heat, we are seeing a trend. The McCain campaign is now on the ascent; the Obama campaign is on the descent. Will this apparent trend continue?

Taylor Marsh:

The inevitability campaign the Obama team is running is failing.

John McCain’s negative attacks bent on defining Obama are working.

That’s because McCain did what Republicans always do to dismantle Democrats. They turn into our candidate’s perceived strengths. They did that with John Kerry, attacking his war record. They’re doing it to Barack Obama by attacking his very persona and the reason almost 18 million people voted for him in the primaries: his optimism and large scale appeal among voters who believe he stands for something greater than politics.

Mark Kilmer for Red State:

If Obama has substance beyond his celebrity, the best way to fight back against the ad would be for him to display this seriousness and depth, this fitness and preparedness. We don’t need Clair McCaskill and Tom Daschle promising us that Obama is this, that, and the other; we need something beyond a substanceless speech to 200,000 Berliners and a cheap pickup line about Hopechangehope.

Matt Stoller for Open Left:

I don’t have any conclusions with this post, as I’m not going to pretend like I know how to run a Presidential race. I don’t, and most of us don’t understand the remarkable pressures involved in being an incredibly famous icon who can’t make a mistake, or even worse, can’t allow others to even frame anything you do as a mistake while building a policy apparatus to run the United States Government at the same time as you build a $800 million operation to persuade 60 million Americans to go out one day and pull a lever exactly the way you want them to. Still, I have thought for years that this election should be an easy win for Democrats, and there’s no reason to change my mind because of a few polls in July. The terrain heavily favors the Democrats, despite handwringing all over the place from anti-Obama Democrats and hosana’s from pro-Obama Democrats who think that only he can possibly eke out a narrow victory in an environment where Bush is in the high 20s.

But certainly, people in the campaign and savvy insiders are worried.

Conclusion: Democrats are worried, Republicans hopeful.