The Fat Lady Has Not Yet Sung
Sorry to use such a cliché, but it’s true. The race for the presidency has not been decided yet, Michael Merritt explains.
As I’ve traveled across the blogosphere, one theme I’ve noticed seems to be resignation to an impending Barack Obama presidency, even from some of those who don’t support him. Yet, people seem to be forgetting one thing: it’s August 3rd, not November 4th. I don’t think we’ll really know who’s going to win the presidency until that day. Any attempts to try and predict such a winner this early in the game are kind of like predicting a long-term weather forecast: you may have an idea based on current conditions, but those conditions may change as the day you’re forecasting approaches.
Via Joe Gandelman at TMV, a new Rasmussen poll is showing that many people are unhappy with Barack Obama’s response to McCain’s celebrity ad from last week. This is coiciding with both a Rasmussen and Gallup poll that shows the two candidates within one point of each other.
Needless to say that while Obama definitely looked good and got a good verbal response in Europe, the polling is saying otherwise since he’s gotten back. He may have gotten a slight bump from his trip, but any of that was erased when McCain’s campaign started the character attacks against him.
One reason I think his numbers have slumped is because McCain, who pretty much twiddled his thumbs until his recent campaign shake-up, finally found a niche and is running with it. I think it’s the wrong way to go about things, but it does seem to be working, which could spell trouble for the Obama campaign. If he doesn’t want to see more of these kind of poll numbers, he needs to stop acting so offended every time somebody runs an ad like this and instead respond with a reason why he thinks McCain is wrong.
So, I think basically preparing for “the inevitable” is a wrong attitude to take while the election is still three months away. The majority of voters are only just starting to pay attention, but will probably not start making decisions until after the Olympics are over.
Yet, I also think it’s premature to start saying “President McCain.” Anything can happen in the next three months, and I’d rather not see “the inevitable failure” of the McCain or Obama campaigns every time the polls change like we did midway through the primary season with Clinton and Obama.
Needless to say that while Obama definitely looked good and got a good verbal response in Europe, the polling is saying otherwise since he’s gotten back.
The Democrats have never really realized that America does not appreciate the meddling of Europe. Just as Europe does not appreciate the meddling of Europe in America. Whenever one of our politicians seems to get an endorsement from Europe it usually sends shivers up the spine of the heartland.
The reason he got no bounce is because he is already at maximum capacity. There simply is not going to be anymore people swayed to Barak Obama’s candidacy. The real numbers are those falling into line behind McCain. Will he get enough to make up the difference? Most likely not.
Even though the national poll is virtually tied, the electoral vote is not even close. The individual state races are whats most important and Obama is like at 284 with the potential to pick up nearly 100 more.
My prediction.
Obama 306.
McCain 232.
Indeed RRRocks, that in the end it will be electoral votes that decide that winner. Yet, I would not count McCain out just yet. This isn’t the time to call a winner. Americans tend to hate that, and they’ve showed it in some of the primaries earlier this year.
You are wrong on the Europe appreciation of Obama sir (ABOVE POSTER) I travel quite often, and this Obama reception that the Europeans and even some in the middle east gave him was exhilirating. Thw world is a global community. What the USA does, does effect others. and vice versa with other nations. I have been ashamed of Bush/ Cheney leadership for 8 years. APOLIGIZING to my international friends for the actions this corrupt administration took . Seeing Obama loved and Euros waving American flags made me PROUD to be an American.
Jeez, no need for the 3rd degree. I was only making the point that his trip didn’t give Obama the poll boost was he was probably hoping for.
And when US citizens go into the poll booths - just what percentage will use that as a deciding factor? 0.001%? how many will even think about it? 0.01%?
I think obama08 misses the bigger picture of American politics in general. That is that whenever a candidate in America gets a huge endorsement from Overseas countries that is really not a good thing.
If McCain was getting the endorsement of 100,000’s of Mexicans his own party would be lynching him right now. Americans might be egotisical, self centered and gravitate towards whats best for America but then what nation does not?
The lack of boost is to be expected from this. The only way Obama gets a boast in national polling numbers is if he selects Hillary. The only thing this tour did was to strengthen McCain’s backing as people realized that the rock star was on world tour and he was running for president of the world and seems to be more concerned with what the world wants then what Americans want.
Obama in my opinion is a dangerous man because he so wants to impress the world that he just might sacrifice America in the process.
I think what is truly dangerous is the attitude that whatever is good for the "rest of the world" must by definition be bad for America. Xenophobia is never a sound basis for policy.
Jason perhaps you should try reading someones opinion thats not thru the eyes of phobias. No one is saying that what is good for the rest of the world might not be good for America.
IM TALKING ABOUT ELECTIONS. Americans want other countries to piss off when it comes to our elections. Once the elections are over and AMERICANS have made their choice then I think most of us like to have good relations with our allies.
You seem to see every comment made on this site thru the eyes of a phobic prism and who assigns ulterior motives to every post if they do not meet some criteria that only you seem qualified to judge.
Americans want the world to butt out on their elections. If you do not believe that then I would like to consider your evidence to the contrary.
Should you talk about phobias seeing as you are ready to claim Obama will sell out his country in order to get foreign supporters?
Listen, it is perfectly reasonable to discuss the impact of Obama’s trip seeing as there are lame anti-European tendencies in some Americans, but you can’t create a psychological profile on the man just yet.
What if I said that McCain would sell out the world to impress Americans? It would look kind of empty and ungrounded, no?
Everything Obama does at any time can mean everything anyone wants it to mean. How about we look at what he has done and what he has said he wants to do? I’m tired of speculating about what some John Q will think about Obama having the temerity to say "Hi" to a bunch of Germans and even (gasp) have good speeches and a nice smile.
RRocks, you personal attack on me is out-of-bounds and irrelevant to the issue at hand. Perhaps you should get back on topic. The suggestion that other countries should "piss off" assumes an underlying conflict of interests that is intrinsic. Your allegation that Obama would sell out America just to please foreigners is xenophobia at its purest, since it assumes that anything desired by foreigners must automatically include "selling out America".
On the contrary, I think that many other countries, especially in Europe, have long shown that they really want American leadership, provided that it is temperate and responsible in its approach. They have a legitimate right to an opinion because what America does affects the rest of the world simply by virtue of American preponderance of power. Telling them to "butt out" is unjustified, especially in the absence of any evidence that they have conflicting interests in the first place. While there is certainly an element of knee-jerk anti-Americanism over there, those are not the people who are supporting Obama. I think you need a less reactionary view of the topic.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) — On editorial pages and in the streets, incensed Pakistanis accused an impatient America on Thursday of meddling in the country’s affairs even before it was done naming a new cabinet.
BEIRUT — Iran should stay out of Iraq’s elections, U.S. President George Bush said Wednesday on pan-Arab television.
Ronald Reagan was not the most interventionist American president of modern times. Dwight Eisenhower retains that honor, insofar as significant extralegal meddling in other countries’ politics is concerned. Reagan intervened in the face of political obstacles which would most likely have inhibited Eisenhower or any other president to a marked degree.After that he flew across the pond and met with the Club de Madrid, in Spain on November 19th and the 20th and then flew back across the Atlantic and wound up in California, where he bashed the border wall, endorsed Hillary (not for the first time) and expressed his disapproval of the U.S. immigration debate.
Mr. Google is full of meddling politicians. They are rejected and they are not welcome. America does not welcome meddling Europeans into their political affairs. You can make all the xenophobic cases against me you want but the simple fact is that no nation. Not just America but all nations resent any attempt to prevent this from happening.
You on the other hand who appears to be an Obama fan resort to labeling anyone who would reject Obama’s rock stardom as a xenophobe and I reject your labels as nothing more then an attack on me and a denial of basic facts.
Expressing an opinion is not "meddling".
Also, the most powerful nation in the world has a huge impact on everyone in the world. I fail to see how their having an opinion is unjustified.
I am an "Obama fan" but I am also a "McCain fan", so your attempt to evade the issue by personally attacking me fails again. And I could care less about "rock stardom". I care only about practical consequences and substantive issues and a modicum of fairness in political analysis. You should try it some time instead of lashing out like this.
What makes your comments xenophobic has nothing to do with disagreeing with Obama. It has to do with your penchant for insisting that anyone who even LISTENS to a foreigner is “selling out America”. That is the very definition of xenophobia and would be so regardless of the identity of any political candidates. What is NOT “xenophobia” is disagreeing with you. In fact, since I presume you and I are both Americans, I don’t think “xenophobia” can be applied for my rejection of your views in the same way it CAN be applied for your automatic rejection of anything and everything any “Europeans” might think. Perhaps you should spend some of that Google time looking for a dictionary.
The fact that you find any criticism of your views to be a personal attack on you is much more an indication of your own intolerant mindset than it is a response to anything I actually said.
I think your confusing two positions. I am talking about elections and electioneering. I am not talking about the president.
I think all Americans want their president to be respected and to bring respect upon this nation. We welcome the president going abroad and telling other nations what we want and like about them and welcome equal exchanges.
That is essentially his job.
However when those running for office suddenly find themselves the object of millions of adoring fans wearing Obama 08 or Hillary Now Shirts and screaming their names. Then it becomes a disquieting event in the nation for many reasons and it has nothing to do with xenophobia.
The fact that you find any criticism of your views to be a personal attack on you is much more an indication of your own intolerant mindset than it is a response to anything I actually said.
Criticism of my views are welcome. It is when I am labeled with nothing more then a few flimsy sentences of a post that I find objectionable. How you can infer that I am a Xenophobe by a few short sentences is beyond me but you must have your reasons.
There exists no European "meddling" in the election. Expressing an opinion is not "meddling". The fact that you object to the expression of an opinion merely because it an opinion made by foreigners can be fairly described as xenophobic. The fact that you asserted that anyone who listens to those opinions is "selling out America" is also pretty clear evidence of xenophobia. I didn’t just randomly choose that word and then randomly choose you to apply it to. You said things that provoked that description and I think you comments meet the objective definition of “xenophobic” by virtue of their visceral and automatic hatred towards anything said by “Europeans” about the American election.
If you don’t want to be perceived as being xenophobic, it is probably best to take a more responsible approach in your comments. If you are saying that I have not accurately perceived your views, you should correct the record instead of just whining about it and trying to go after me personally.
by virtue of their visceral and automatic hatred towards anything said by “Europeans” about the American election.
Lord have mercy. Now I hate Europeans for cheering Obama? It is amazing to me that you can find so much to dislike about me in a few short paragraphs.
My contention in your argument seems to be that Obama is selling out America. Okay. Lets go with that then since you want to prove your superior intellect today.
So prove to me that Barak Obama does not want to sell out America by accepting the adoration and praise of Europeans? Why should those in the heartland believe that Obama is not more interested in Americas problems then he is in Europeans perceptions of Him and America?
“The Post-American World” which Senator Barak Obama has been photographed carrying, with a bookmark.
Mr. Zakaria mostly fears fear. “We have managed to spook ourselves in a time of worldwide peace and prosperity,” he writes, noting the dread of “terrorists and rogue nations, Muslims and Mexicans, foreign companies and free trade, immigrants and international organizations.”
I seem to fit nicely in the category of your Xenophobe category. It has become fashionable for the pro Immigration crowd and subsequently for seeking the approval of foreign nations crowd to dispatch anyone who challenges this as Xenophobes.
Never mind. I choose to no longer carry on a conversation with someone who is Xenophobe hunting.
I’m unsure the dismissing of other countries’ opinions falls under that definition. It seems closer to ethnocentrism, but that definition doesn’t seem to quite fit either. For now, lets call it, "I don’t care what Europe thinks."
However, I have often heard the argument, "Why does Europe care about our election? Why don’t they just butt out?" The fact is that Europe has to care about our elections, because as the world’s sole superpower, the foreign policy decisions of our president have far-reaching effects. I don’t think an Obama or McCain presidency should be pandering to European interests, but they should be looking to make sure that America remains a world leader and can more easily wield some influence. You tend to get resistance to those goals when you go pissing everybody off.
Of course, if you don’t want Europeans caring who we elect, I assume you’re in support of us withdrawing every troop on every base we have outside this country and withdrawing from the world market? Then it won’t matter what they think because we’ll be able to keep to ourselves.
Michael
It is not about what I am in favor of or not in favor of. I am commenting on Barak Obama travelling overseas and why in my estimation he did not receive much of a bump in his poll numbers from it…………..I opined…………. it usually sends shivers up the spine of the heartland.
Perhaps times they are a changing, but they havent changed yet. My estimation of the heartland is the electoral map and the heartland which almost always represents a sea of red. Those same people who rejected the immigration reform act last year are the same ones in the heartland of America who will reject meddling influences on our election process. That is their nature. Are they Xenophobes.
Their opponents have become very good at coining words of late to label people. Heir, oberfuhrer, American Taliban, Shrub, King, Emperor, Xenophobe.
Its the politics of fear in reverse. Those who have accused the Bush Administration of such tactics practice it themselves in equal doses.
IF (and only if) they reject the expression of opinions by foreigners for no other reason that those opinions are expressed by foreigners, then YES, by definition, they are xenophobes.
You attempt to include this objection with a list of demonizing words like "Nazi" is extremely dishonest, especially since I have specifically defended conservative people from such demonizations in the past.
RRRocks goes much further than that. He goes beyond merely not caring to being actively hostile to whatever Europeans say, characterizing it as “meddling” if they DARE to express an opinion at all.
So now anyone who reads a book that you disagree with is a probable traitor? WOW. Just wow. If you want to see the only authoritarian in this conversation, look in a mirror.