Turkey and Iran; It’s All About Energy
Meir Javedanfar hits the nail on the head when he writes that the real danger of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s trip to Turkey is that the Turks will import more energy from Iran. Why?
The Russian invasion of Georgia is having a dramatic effect on the region.
What should worry the Israeli and the US government is that the recent Russian assault on Georgia has made Iran even more attractive as a energy supplier, for 2 reasons:
1. BP has just shut down a oil and gas pipeline which runs through Georgia. That has damaged the credibility and stability of the Ceyhan-Baku- Tbilisi line, which avoided Russian territory.
2. With Moscow flexing its muscles in such a brutal manner, less countries will now be willing to become dependent on it for energy purposes. This is compounded by the fact that the Russians are not shy to shut gas or oil supplies to forces changes in foreign and domestic policy, as was the case with Ukraine and the Czech republic.
Now, what most Westerners don’t understand about this region is that if you don’t want to be dependent on Russia or are afraid of it, there’s only one other major country you can rely on for energy (and security at that); Iran. When you are here you understand rather quickly that these countries do not have good choices. They have bad choices, worse choices and worst choices. And the difference between the three kinds of choices is, from their perspective, neglible.
This leaves Iran as the other alternative. Iran has the gas resources (2nd largest in the world), and Turkey has the proximity and the required route to Europe, and wants to become a major energy transfer route as this brings more income from oil companies and adds to Turkey’s strategic importance. It also wants to move away from Russia as a energy supplier.
If you’re living in this region you’ve got to live with it. So, the Turks and others aren’t always thinking about ideals, etc. They’re thinking about surviving and modernizing their country.
This website uses IntenseDebate comments, but they are not currently loaded because either your browser doesn't support JavaScript, or they didn't load fast enough.
Comments are closed.
PoliGazette Comments Policy
PoliGazette encourages comments from all viewpoints, especially those that disagree.
Comments submitted must, however, adhere to the following standards. Comments that violate
these standards may be edited or deleted without notice at the sole discretion of the editors.
Commenters who repeatedly or egregiously violate these standards or who attempt to argue
publicly with editors regarding the comments policy may be banned from commenting further.
(1) Comments should address the substantive content of the post. Comments that repeatedly
or blatantly misrepresent the content of the post or of others' comments are not welcome. Comments that
respond to something other than which the contributor or commenter may have said are irrelevant and should
not be posted.
(2) Comments should avoid vulgarity as well as racial, ethnic, religious, or sexual bigotry.
(3) Comments should not personally attack the character, personal integrity, or professional
reputation of any PoliGazette contributor or of other commenters.
(4) Comments should reflect the contributions of the commenters themselves and should not
include extensive cut-and-paste reproductions of others' words except insofar as necessary to supplement
the commenter's own arguments. Link spam, trackback spam, and propaganda spam will be instantly deleted.
(5) Public figures are considered open to all substantive criticism of their policies and statements.
Comments that present objectively false factual information about public figures (i.e. "Obama is a Muslim") or
that attack public figures by attacking their families are not welcome. Comments that merely repeat
slogans for or against a candidate without engaging in substantive comment are not welcome.
Questions or challenges to these policies or their application should be directed to the editors
by email only.
It looks like the Turkish have used the opportunity to move away from Russia. According to presstv Turkey is to import more Iranian gas, as a result of this trip.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=66472§ionid=351020103
Michael, from your Turkish experience what is the general view of the PKK bomb attack which shut down the BTC oil pipeline a few days before this all began? Was the PKK attack co-ordinated with Russia? It seems an amazing coincidence that one of the 2 oil pipelines through Georgia gets cut off then a few days later Russia mounts an invasion of Georgia, closing the other oil pipeline at Gori in the process.
David, maybe YOU should become a commentator for Turkish TV on these affairs. I’ve been watching TV and reading the news and despite the wide coverage, no commentator that I’ve seen has thus far suggested that the two could be linked. That may be because PKK just attacks a lot of targets and kills Turkish military as well as civilians left and right so people in Turkey have not linked that attack to the Russians as far as I know.
They may indeed be independent events, but it’s smart to at least consider a possible linkage given the coincidence.
Selin, I’m just asking if there is a possibility. Coincidences do happen without there being a conspiracy…
David, I think that Selin is praising your rather astute observation that no commentator in Turkey has yet made.
As for potential conspiracy, it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility. ASALA and the PKK are alleged to be the brainchild of Soviet Armenian KGB officer Karen Brutents. Also, we know that Armenia, which has strengthened its relations with Russia since its last elections, offers refuge to PKK terrorists.
I don’t think it’s just a possibility, but more likely a probabiliy. I found it highly suspicious that oil only began being pumped through the Ceylan pipeline 2 1/2 months ago and now Russian para- and military forces are in Georgia.