The New Russian Strategy
The Russian invasion of Georgia marked the start of a new Russian foreign policy; it is not a policy truly aimed at the small countries surrounding it. It is, essentially, aimed at the United States. In that regard, Putin and Medvedev simply decided to launch a new Cold War.
According to some experts, Russia New Cold War strategy aims at countering U.S. containment policies and, instead, aims at containment of the U.S.
One of the cornerstones of the likely future Russian strategy is keeping the U.S. busy… on its own continent. If the U.S. is secure it will actively contain Russia; if, on the other hand, the U.S. isn’t as secure as it wants to be, lawmakers and administration officials will be focused on their own problems at home.
An easy way for Russia to cause havoc is by ‘naval interdiction,’ as Peter Zeihan explained for STRATFOR. This policy means that Russia will try to actively influence countries around the Gulf of Mexico. ‘A hostile power in Cuba,’ for instance, ‘could fairly easily seal both the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, reducing the Gulf of Mexico to little more than a lake.’
Putin and Medvedev may also attempt to exercise influence on the Panama Canal. The U.S. is highly dependent on its various waterways. If they are closed down, or if it is made more difficult for U.S. ships to move through them, the U.S. is in trouble. So, Russia may do what the Soviet Union did as well; establish friendly relations with Nicaragua and Cuba.
Although Cuba is less friendly with Russia these days, we all know that Cuba’s support can be bought. If the Russians are willing to pay enough, Cuba is willing to become a puppet of the Kremlin once again.
Nicaragua, on the other hand, is still friendly with Russia. It is the only country that, aside from Russia, recognized the independence of both Georgian breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia for instance.
Naval interdiction, then, is a real possibility… and quite easy to accomplish for Russia.
Another important part of Russia’s New Cold War policy is, probably, drug facilitation. Drug facilitation means that Russia will assist drug groups in any way necessary; these groups do not need money, but they can use weapons and training in combat. Russia has the weapons, and combat veterans to teach others how to fight.
This policy could especially be useful for the Russians in Mexico. There is already a problem with drugs being smuggled across the Mexico - US border, but if Russia wants to create real trouble for America, this smuggling will significantly increase in the years ahead.
Drugs cause tremendous domestic problems, as is well know. The more drugs Russia and its allies get into the U.S., the more the U.S. as to focus on its own domestic problems.
Finally, there is the issue of American stability. If Russia wants to make life difficult for America, it should create political instability in Mexico… or help allied groups to take control of the government. Either way; bad news for the U.S. A Mexico in disarray, with no enforcement of laws, no security, no stability, would cause problems that spill over the border. To a very large degree Mexico’s problems are America’s problems.
‘In many regards, Mexico as a failed state would be a worse result for Washington than a hostile united Mexico. A hostile Mexico could be intimidated, sanctioned or even invaded, effectively browbeaten into submission. But a failed Mexico would not restrict the drug trade at all. The border would be chaos, and the implications of that go well beyond drugs. One of the United States’ largest trading partners could well devolve into a seething anarchy that could not help but leak into the U.S. proper,’ Zeihan explained.
This Russian policy - and it is likely that the above will indeed be Russia’s foreign policy towards the U.S. at least - will force the U.S. to come up with means to undo the damage. Coming up with plans to counter drug trade, plans that work that is, that would keep the waterways open, and that would guarantee the stability of, especially, Mexico is extremely difficult. The U.S. would look at its own problems, and have less time to make life difficult for the Russians.
Because that is the goal of Russia it seems; it could very well be that it is not to create a new empire, for the sake of empire. Instead it could be to create an empire so the heart of Russia remains within Russia’s hands, without problems caused by foreign governments.











is it really that wrong of Russia to desire not to have problems caused by foreign governments? I don’t quite see the point of this piece…