Electoral Map: McCain 216, Obama 202

September 21st, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:
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Although it is often interesting to talk about national polls, this year’s elections will not be decided by the majority vote of the American people. Well, not necessarily. What truly matters are individual states. The one who wins most electoral votes from the different states will be the next president.

So, instead of focusing on the national polls, lets have a look at the map as it is right now:

RealClearPolitics shows that, with toss-up states existing, John McCain and Sarah Palin have 216 electoral votes, against 202 for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. This means that Obama may have made a comeback in the national polls, but that McCain has not only closed the gap on an individual state level, but even opened a small lead.

With no toss-up states involved, it is Obama leading; sadly for the Democratic ticket, however, toss up states do exist and to pretend they do not is ludicrous.

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  1. C Stanley
    September 21st, 2008 at 15:20
    Reply | Quote | #1

    Actually that’s been updated since you posted, Michael- RCP has now moved FL out of McCain’s column and listed it as a toss up state based on the latest polls, so they now have it at Obama 202, McCain 189.
    It’s definitely a horse race unless or until something shakes it up- either a stumble by one of the candidates or a definitive win in the debates. Of course, for McCain to even be running neck in neck with Obama is a considerable feat since Obama started with something like a 15 point advantage on the generic ballot polling (Dem vs. GOP.)

  2. Rudi666
    September 21st, 2008 at 17:38
    Reply | Quote | #2

    LOL – MVDG isn’t wildly off base on this one, except for a couple of points. Pollster comes out with similar numbers: 208(R) 202(D) and Tossup 128.

    This poll has Florida leaning to McCain, but it’s also trending back to a toss up.

    The poll/site has almost all of the Rustbelt as a toss up. If the Northern Rustbelt remains a tossup, Obama’s toast, the D’s have won the Northern Rustbelt since Reagan. Bush lost Michigan in both 2000 and 2004.

  3. Rudi666
    September 21st, 2008 at 17:44
    Reply | Quote | #3

    In a related article from the St. Pete Times, seems Palin is hurting McCain with a focus group tracked by the paper.
    http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article818181.ece

    ST. PETERSBURG — Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin."The one thing that frightens me more than anything else are the ideologues. We’ve seen too many," said 80-year-old Air Force veteran Donn Spegal, a lifelong Republican from St. Petersburg, who sees McCain’s new running mate as the kind of "wedge issue" social conservative that has made him disenchanted with his party.

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