Although I have little doubt the state of Georgia will go to John McCain in the end, it has been interesting to see how the dynamics of this election have shaken things up across the country, and Georgia is just one of these places. The big polls of polls sites, Pollster and Real Clear Politics, both seem to agree the state is weakly in the McCain column. That position hasn’t changed in recent days; the poll number differences between McCain and Obama seem to be anywhere between six and eight percent.
RCP notes that George W. Bush won this state by more than 10 points both in both his elections (more than 15 in 2004), so what’s going on here?
Perhaps this closeness can be attributed to demographics? After all, the state of Georgia boasts an almost 30% African American population. That’s huge. The problem with that suggestion is that some of its surrounding states, such as South Carolina, also can claim nearly the same percentages of demographics, and McCain currently wins them in a big way.
How about the political make up of the state? Georgia state politics was dominated by the Republicans until 2003, until Republicans took control of the Senate and the state elected a Republican governor, and then the Republicans took the House in 2004. There are also centers of liberal activity, such as Atlanta and Decatur, but much of the state is politically conservative. I think if these cities were such a big factor, Bush might not have had such big wins in the last two elections.
Perhaps the answer lies in another demographic. While McCain is leading Obama comfortably with men, 55-39 according to one recent poll, the same poll has Georgia’s women as tied on Obama vs. McCain. Some previous polls have women had supporting Obama by several points. There may be other factors as well, such as a not-so-small Hispanic population.
Like I said, I think McCain will still win this state in the end. The more interesting question is: by how much?
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