Connecticut Rep. Shays in Tight Race

October 18th, 2008 By: Michael Merritt | Tags:
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I’ve admittedly been paying less attention to the races in my own state than I should be, so I’ll be paying some more attention in the coming weeks.  Technically, there are two races to look at, but officially there’s really only one that’s tight: that of long-time Republican Representative Christopher Shays versus Democratic opponent Jim Himes.

Shays is the last Republican Congressman in New England to cling on to his seat, and mostly because he repesents the somewhat conservative fourth district.  The fourth district is the one that borders New York, and so houses many wealthy CEOs and other high-level execs.

The problem for Shays is that he may be in trouble this year.  He hung on by the his teeth in 2006 as it is, winning by 6,645 votes.  As the Courant puts it:

In a poll conducted for Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, on Monday and Tuesday, SurveyUSA found Himes leading, 48 percent to 45 percent — and Barack Obama opening a 22-percentage point lead over John McCain in the Fairfield County district.

Kerry won the district in 2004 too, but weakly, by about 8 points.  Shays certainly can’t be happy that Obama is doing so well in his district right now.

In 2006, two other Republicans, Nancy Johnson of the 5th district, and Rob Simmons of the 2nd district, were voted out and replaced by Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney.  Courtney won against Simmons by only 94 votes, so it prompted a recount.  The trouble for Shays is that like Simmons, he’s rather moderate, even moreso than John McCain.  Simmons couldn’t make it in 2006, and if Shays is struggling in the polls now, he has reason to be worried.  Then again, some polls had his 2006 challenger Diane Farrell winning comfortably in the days leading up the election and Shays still won.

As for the newbie Congressmen, it seems that Joe Courtney is likely to keep his seat and Murphy probably will too.  The other two representatives, John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, are not going anywhere soon.  So, it’s only a matter of time before we see whether Shays will get lucky too.

In a year when Republicans all over are doing bad, even the most liberal of them are not safe.

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