Poll: Obama Slips, 3% Lead

October 20th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:

The latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby International poll shows that Barack Obama’s lead in the polls continues to decrease. Where he had a lead of more than 6% only a week ago or so according to this pollster, Obama now leads McCain by less than 3%, which is within the margin of error.

Remarkably, McCain was still trailing about 4% 24 hours earlier in the Zogby poll, implying that he surged suddenly, and in quite a short amount of time.

It was the fifth consecutive day in which Obama’s poll number slipped, and the third consecutive day in which McCain’s numbers increased, Zogby reported.

Significantly, McCain finally rose above the 45% threshold for the first time in two weeks. At the same time, Obama’s numbers fell below another important roof, 48%. 

47.8% of voters told Zogby they supported Obama, against 45.1% who favored McCain. The latter made “a big move “Saturday among independent voters, cutting’s Obama lead from 16 points to just 8 points. Now, Obama leads by a 46% to 38% margin,” the pollster said.

“McCain’s strong performance at the Alfred E. Smith charity dinner in New York City Thursday, combined with his appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman Thursday night, may have had a positive effect,” Zogby explained.

If Sarah Palin’s performance at “Saturday Night Live” has the same effect, we could very well see the gap decreasing even further in the coming days.

Then again, today was a big day for Obama: the news that Colin Powell endorsed him will undoubtedly dominate the news for at least a day, perhaps a few more. This while Powell’s endorsement could not come as a surprise to anyone. At the same time, the Obama campaign reported it had raised a record breaking $150 million in the month of September, this too should help Obama stop sliding in the polls.

Although it seems unlikely that McCain will win considering all the polls in recent weeks, McCain’s many public stumbles and mistakes, and lastly the fact that the ‘elite media’ have clearly sided with Obama and against McCain, it seems that the Obama campaign’s concern that his supporters should not become complacent is justified.

Expect Obama’s lead to rise again in the coming days, in response to Powell’s endorsement and the $150 million record breaking fundraising totals in September. After, say, Thursday, the McCain campaign could very well once again make a slight comeback, if it is able to produce something news worthy, which has to be either positive for and about McCain, or highly negative for and about Obama.

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  1. Mael
    October 20th, 2008 at 05:34
    Reply | Quote | #1

    McCain is going to win this election. New polls show both Ohio and Florida moving back to his column. Obama’s lead appears to be fading across the board. The threat of Obama is being driven home by his reckless comments revealing his wanting to spread the wealth around. Who is he to determine who should or should not receive money. We need businesses creating jobs not Government work programs. Obama’s socialism is the wrong direction for this country.

  2. Michael Merritt
    October 20th, 2008 at 05:55
    Reply | Quote | #2

    Mael, I’ll believe a McCain win is in the writing when the electoral votes start moving his way in a significant way.  Thus far, they’ve barely moved.  At this point in 2004, they were a rollercoaster ride from day to day.

    Not to say that couldn’t happen in the next 15 days, but it just hasn’t yet.

  3. Amanda Dubnovic
    October 20th, 2008 at 07:17
    Reply | Quote | #3

    There is a ground-swell of votes slowly but surely emerging for McCain in the race for the presidency.  As he rises in the national polls, inevitable he will also rise in the electoral count in the individual states.  Just wait and see, the Maverick will still pull it off.  It may not be a landslide, but it will be a significant victory.  Just like Truman and Dewey in 1948.  I sense it it my bones, and I am usually not wrong. 

  4. Interested
    October 20th, 2008 at 07:21
    Reply | Quote | #4

    for the next three weeks McCain just needs to run ad’s with Obama saying he’ll Tax, Tax, Tax
    Spread the wealth around.

    In this state I’ve seen approx 25 advertisements by obama, all negative save for 1. 
    Ya got to go for it McCain if you want the win.  and he’d do well to show that under the Democrats handling of Congress – the economic situation plummeted.

  5. Susan
    October 20th, 2008 at 15:56
    Reply | Quote | #5

    I am very bothered at the prospect that Obama will be President. I hope the intelligent voting public will overtake the kool aide drinking public and will show up at the polls on election day and vote for John McCain. John is a decent and moral man and the way he has been treated is extremly disturbing to me. It is really hard to understand WHY people in this country would even consider voting Obama into office. I do not know what is going on in this country. Could it be that people actually want socialism ? Are they that sorry that they want work and make their own way in life ? What is going on ? I just don’t get it ?
    McCain/Palin 08
    God help America !

  6. Dana
    October 20th, 2008 at 20:00
    Reply | Quote | #6

    John McCain has run the most despicable campaign I’ve seen in my 42 years of voting.  He is relying on hate, bigotry, and fear tactics to obscure the fact that his support of Bush’s policies and his years of voting for deregulation helped put the country into the financial crisis it’s in and necessitated the socialistic bailout of private corporations…and that he doesn’t have a workable plan to get the country back on the right track.  The Kool-Aid drinkers are the ones who have been so brainwashed by Republican tactics over the past eight years that they either can’t or won’t look at the hard facts and admit that McCain has voted with Bush over 90% of the time…and he’ll perpetuate the policies that got the country into this mess in the first place.

  7. Ron
    October 21st, 2008 at 02:46
    Reply | Quote | #7

    RealClearPolitics.com.  Most polls in battleground states go to Obama. I don’t see how Americans can vote for McCain / Palin with the poor performance on running their campaign. This directly reflects how their term would function.

  8. Susan
    October 26th, 2008 at 05:10
    Reply | Quote | #8

    Dana, You are a complete idiot. Don’t you know how to read and look up the facts, I think not. Your brain is sloshing around with all that Kool aid.
    How can anyone vote for a man that associated with crooks and terrorists ? How ? YOU ARE A REAL NUTCASE. God Help America. NOT….NO NO NO GOD D*** America. See a Dr. soon and take your prozac.
    Ron, what kind of campaign were they suppose to run ? Obama the new Messiah, smooth talker, slick one fooled you idiots. He avoids answers to the question about his friends when asked and acts as though it is nothing that he sat in a hate filled church for 20 years and listened to hate about the white race and has associated with nothing but a bunch of thugs all his lame life.
    The only thing he learned is how to speak and he does it so smoothly people are just in a trance when they see him. You would think they he is the second coming of Christ Jesus. He does not have me fooled. You worshipers of him and truley brain washed idiots.
    You will get what you asked for and you will reap what you sow.
    Things is the USA will never be the same again and it damn sure want be for the better either. Just watch if this slick willy gets elected.

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