AP Poll: McCain, Obama Statistically Tied
The latest Associated Press-GfK poll shows that the race for president of the United States is tightening rapidly. According to the poll, McCain gained significantly after the third and last debate among white voters and those earning less than $50,000.
So much even so, that Barack Obama lead has almost disappeared completely according to the poll: 44% say they support Obama, against 43% who support McCain.
The poll is once again a sign that most pollsters have no idea what they’re doing when it comes to this year’s elections. We now have some polls saying it’s extremely close, while others charge that Obama has a 10% lead. All polls are conducted by companies with a long history and great experience of polling.
The poll, the Associated Press explained in its report on it, ‘supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.’
As said earlier today, McCain had trouble, for weeks, to find a message that stuck after the economic crisis broke out. But Obama finally gave him something to work with when he talked to the now famous Joe “The Plumber” Wurzelbacher. Obama’s allies in the media focused on Joe, but forgot that the real potential problem was Obama’s answer, not Joe’s question. McCain did not forget that, and used it relentlessly in the last week or so.
Polls always show a tightening race in the last few weeks of the campaign, sometimes correctly sometimes not, but this time, I think it is likely that polls showing the race to be tightening to be reasonably correct; it just does not make much sense for Obama to lead by 10% nationwide.
Meanwhile, one thing has to be pointed out time and again; it’s not about the nationwide vote, it’s about individual states. And in that regard, McCain is still in serious, serious trouble.
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So is Obama up by 10 or in a dead heat?
I guess the “new” saying would be:
“There are lies, damnable lies and statistics….oh yeah and polls too!”
On what empirical basis do you claim that it does not make much sense for Obama to lead by 10%? Is that just your wild guess of what America thinks? Based on what?
You dont have a clue.
Perhaps you should consider that this poll that you trumpet, actually found a 5 pt. lead – until they ran their results thought their subjective “likely voter” model – one that explicitly overrides the stated intention of the person polled, as to whether they will vote, and excludes them from the result if they didnt vote on ‘04. Which, of course, arbitrarily excludes all people who may be brought back into the voting booth by excitement for Obama – a phenomenon that surely exists to some level.
The average of all the polls remains at around a 7 pt. lead for Obama. If you are going to guess, thats the safest bet.
After reviewing the documentation for the AP-GfK poll,
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf
it turns out that about 44% of those participating in this AP poll identified themselves as Born Again or Evangelicals – a segment of the population that has consistently voted along conservative lines – and 44% is approximately twice the amount of the general voting population that those segments actually represent. However, many puplications picked up the poll and briefly reported it as a closening of the race, without further noting the nature of the actual poling sample used. I think that was misleading, at best, and clearly does not reflect approiate journalistic practices, nor do the poll results provide a valid basis for Republican optimism.
corrected for clerical error …
After reviewing the documentation for the AP-GfK poll,
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf
it turns out that about 44% of those participating in this AP poll identified themselves as Born Again or Evangelicals – a segment of the population that has consistently voted along conservative lines – and 44% is approximately twice the amount of the general voting population that those segments actually represent. However, many publications picked up the poll and briefly reported it as a closening of the race, without further noting the nature of the actual poling sample used. I think that was misleading, at best, and clearly does not reflect appropriate journalistic practices, nor do the poll results provide a valid basis for Republican optimism.
AE