http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

it turns out that about 44% of those participating in this AP poll identified themselves as Born Again or Evangelicals – a segment of the population that has consistently voted along conservative lines – and 44% is approximately twice the amount of the general voting population that those segments actually represent. However, many puplications picked up the poll and briefly reported it as a closening of the race, without further noting the nature of the actual poling sample used. I think that was misleading, at best, and clearly does not reflect approiate journalistic practices, nor do the poll results provide a valid basis for Republican optimism. 

You dont have a clue.
Perhaps you should consider that this poll that you trumpet, actually found a 5 pt. lead – until they ran their results thought their subjective “likely voter” model – one that explicitly overrides the stated intention of the person polled, as to whether they will vote, and excludes them from the result if they didnt vote on ‘04. Which, of course, arbitrarily excludes all people who may be brought back into the voting booth by excitement for Obama – a phenomenon that surely exists to some level.

The average of all the polls remains at around a 7 pt. lead for Obama. If you are going to guess, thats the safest bet.

I guess the “new” saying would be:
“There are lies, damnable lies and statistics….oh yeah and polls too!”