South Asia After the Pakistan-China Nuclear Deal

October 24th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:

“Could China’s plan to help Pakistan build nuclear power plants be the first of many pacts in the region?” wonders Howard Lafranchi for the Christian Science Monitor.

“China’s agreement to help Pakistan build two nuclear power plants is prompting warnings that the new US-India civilian nuclear deal is already pushing other countries to pursue their own nuclear relationships,” he goes on to write.

“The concern among South Asia experts and nonproliferation advocates is that the American deal allowing India to pursue an expanded civilian nuclear program with limited safeguards is prompting other countries in a volatile region to seek a similar deal – something the US had said would not happen.”

Michael Krepon, a South Asia nuclear proliferation expert at the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington told Lafranchi: “You can’t help but hear about China supplying Pakistan with nuclear power plants and see it as a reaction to the US-India deal. Pakistan is desperate for energy, as is India, but there are lower-cost and shorter-timeline options for producing it, so there is something else going on here and in the Middle East.”

When the United States announced it would work with China on nuclear energy, for the first time in history thereby recognizing and accepting India as a nuclear power, many Middle East and South Asia experts said the deal could very well trigger an angry response from Pakistan, which would look at America’s enemies in order to secure a similar deal. 

For Pakistan, its recent deal with China makes more than sense. It was the only logical policy for the Pakistanis to pursue. 

The bad news for the U.S. is, however, that other countries in the region are like to follow suit. When the U.S. does not allow you to produce nuclear energy, but another major power does, China, you turn to the Chinese for help. Especially if you know that the U.S. is unwilling to stop you when China is on your side and when you see that the U.S. is supporting and encouraging your enemies in the region. 

In the end, Pakistan and India remain archenemies. The U.S. should keep that in mind whenever it deals with either country.

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