Of course, there’s a lot of information out there that will prove wrong on election day. However, some of those reports which could very well prove to be utterly incorrect are interesting. This one for instance:

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.

Why is this interesting? Because our very own Jason told me a few days ago that he too believes that it could very well all boil down to Colorado.

Since his track record is considerably better than that of many pollsters, I’m starting to think that Colorado may indeed be the key battleground state this year.

That is, in McCain’s ultimate scenario, that is. As I see it, the polls etc. still clearly indicate that McCain is trailing significantly and that this election is Obama’s to lose.

One indicator aside from the polls is the Republican infighting: if Republicans truly thought the polls were way off, they would not have gone to war with each other already. Their civil war is a sign that they see a Democratic landslide coming. And if they see it coming, we probably should too.

But still, perhaps Colorado will be key this year.

It would be fun; landslides aren’t interesting to cover. Close races are.