Zogby Poll: Obama, McCain Gap Down to 4%
Today’s Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily presidential tracking poll shows that both Barack Obama and John McCain have lost some support in one day time, but Obama (far) more than McCain, making it “a four-point game.”
49% of voters say they intend to vote for Obama, against 44.7% who support McCain.
This means that Obama lost 0.9% since the last poll and McCain 0.4%. It is for the first time that McCain has come this close in weeks.
6.3% of voters said they were undecided yesterday, whereas only 4.9% said so the day before. According to most experts, 50% is the treshhold. If Obama wants to win (in a landslide), he has to poll above 50% almost constantly. If he does not, it is likely that many last-minute voters will vote for the man they know, McCain.
Some reports indicate that a black candidate has to be treated as an incumbent. This means that if a black candidate is polling under 50%, election day will be less good for him than expected, while the opponent will gain significantly.
Interesting about the latest Zogby poll is that McCain is finally doing better among Republicans than Obama among Democrats. 84% of registered Democrats said they support Obama, whereas 87% of Republicans said the same about McCain. Both receive 11% support from among the ranks of the opponent, meaning, in absolute terms, that McCain holds the upper-hand in crossover appeal (there are more registered Democrats than Republicans).
McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin. Among white voters, McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin. Among Hispanics, Obama leads, 66% to 28%, and among African Americans, Obama wins 88% to McCain’s 9%, Zogby found.
The race isn’t over yet, at least not percentage wise nationwide. Sadly for Republicans, elections are decided on a state-level, and it is here where McCain is truly in trouble. Increasingly more states have moved towards Obama in recent weeks, with only a few remaining true ‘battleground states.’ If McCain wants to win the election, he has to win every such state, which is not impossible, but most certainly extremely difficult.
