Gallup Poll: Race Tightens
The latest Gallup poll confirms what the latest Zogby poll published earlier today said: the race between John McCain and Barack Obama is tightening, on a national level at least.
Using the traditional polling method (voter turnout model), Obama holds a 2% lead, Gallup reported Tuesday. Using the expanded model, however, Obama’s lead is still very significant: 7%.
The old model says that Obama is likely to receive 49% of the vote at this point in time, against 47% for McCain. The new model, which has never been tried before, has Obama at 51% and McCain at 44%.
50% is an incredibly important figure for Obama. Research has shown that black candidates need to poll above 50% constantly. If they do not, election day will be considerably less good for them than they expected. The same goes for incumbents: when an incumbent is not polling above 50% constantly, he will often have a harder time getting reelected, and most last-minute deciders will turn to the challenger. As I understand it, the rate is 4-1 for the challenger in such circumstances, as it is for black candidates who poll below 50%.
Interesting about this is that one could very well argue that Obama is a bit of the incumbent. He has been leading in the polls for weeks, if one ignores the two weeks or so that McCain made a significant comeback, months. He has been declared the winner already by many, including yours truly. This election is his to lose, just like the average election for an incumbent.
But, still, I’m calling it for Obama, quite possibly by quite a wide margin (although not the ridiculous 13% margin as predicted by ‘objective’ outlets such as MSNBC and Newsweek). I am especially confident about this considering the state in many individual states, and then especially in key battleground states. Increasingly more have shifted to Obama in the last couple of weeks. This election is his to lose.
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I have to disagree with your “call” on this election. If Obama wins he will not win by a large margin. You seem to be basing you prediction on the polls of the individual states. Though this a far better indicator since essentially the election of a president is 50 different elections it is a well known fact in politics that the state polls are always behind the national poll when it comes to trends. The fact is the race has tighten because it is trending towards McCain.
I’m going to give a few reasons why Senator Obama is going to not win.
1. Even though democrats have for as long as I can remember outnumbered republicans in total voters they don’t come out and vote like republicans do. The percentage of democrats is always lower than republicans.
2. More democrats cross party lines and vote republican than republicans voting democrat. It has traditionally been about 11% of demcrats vote republican compared to 8%.
3. The PUMA factor. The most recent poll showed that 12% of them are still going to support Senator McCain. Solidly This is above the magic 11% that traditionally cross over so this further eats into his support. Even more troubling 23% either aren’t voting or having decided what to do. Just imagine how that might trickle into the general election. Just that 12% translates into about 5.4 million voters.
4. The Bradley Effect. It has traditionally been 2-3%. I personally don’t see it being as high as 3% with this candidate but the fact that it is even in play hurts his chances. Even half of a percent would be a loss of 6.5 million votes
5. Say what you will about Gov. Palin but the sexist attacks on her his going to hurt him at the polls. If a Democrat loyalist like Wendy Buttons is troubled by how Sara Palin has been treated imagine what those women whose livelihood isn’t tied to the Democrat Party are thinking.
Basically I think he loses and I think the democrats are going to be screaming conspiracy even though there are some very troubling trends in the polls.
I am one of the 12% of PUMAs who are voting for McCain/Palin (in fact, I’ve already cast my vote by mail-in ballot). I am incensed by the Obamabots’ virulent and unwarranted attacks on Sarah Palin, including a Californian’s hanging her in effigy. The furor if someone had dared to hang Obama in effigy is unimaginable, yet Plain twists in the wind with hardly of murmur of complaint from the mainstream media. Added to that are many other reasons why a Jewish American Democrat like me has jumped ship: Obama’s ultra liberal tax and spend policies that are anathema in hard economic times; his pro-Palestinian inclinations; his unsavory ties with such hate-mongers and terrorists as Jeremiah Wright, Ayers,and Khalidi; his support of voter fraud specialists like ACORN; his lack of transparency concerning his contributors; and his protean shifting of positions in a say-anything-to-get-elected manner. I think Sarah Palin will draw a lot of “values voters” out of the woodwork on election day and will cause the biggest upset of the century with McCain’s election (probably the reason she’s been hung in effigy).