Early Voting, McCain the Advantage?

October 30th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:

According to reports from Florida and Nevada, voters are using the opportunity to vote ‘early’ (before the elections) in record numbers this year. Especially Democrats have tried to encourage voters to cast their vote before November 4.

In Florida, for instance, many have already voted, with Democrats outweighing Republicans 54% against 30%. Interestingly enough, however, it is not clear whether this also means that most have voted for Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

According to at least one poll, conducted by the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, it is not Obama but John McCain, the Republican nominee, who is leading at this point in time. According to this poll, McCain has a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

Another poll, meanwhile, does show Obama in the lead in Florida with regards to early votes, albeit also by less than one might have expected.

Republicans also hold an advantage, this is clear, among the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned: 50% vs. 30%.

Meanwhile, the Review Journal confirms the LAT/Bloomberg poll mentioned earlier, albeit not about Florida but about Nevada. Here too, Democrats are using the opportunity to vote early in far bigger numbers than Republicans. Polls show, however, that this is not resulting in a lead for Barack Obama.

Through the end of voting Sunday, about 300,000 people had voted early statewide, a turnout of 24.9 percent of the state’s 1.2 million active voters. In Clark County, 211,000 had voted early, a turnout of 25.9 percent,’ the Review Journal reports.

In Clark and Washoe counties, Democrats have been voting at higher rates than Republicans since early voting began Oct. 18. However, Republicans have narrowed the margin somewhat.’

On the first day of early voting, 62 percent of Clark County voters were Democrats, while 23 percent were Republicans and the rest nonpartisans or members of minor parties. Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans,’ the report goes on to say. ‘In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans.’

Which should result in Obama having a firm lead? No?

Why no: ‘Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.’

If these numbers are all correct, we could see something very strange happening in at least Nevada, possibly in Florida as well. Lest we forget, RCP has Obama up by 7.4% right now. If the exit polls are correct, it seems quite possible suddenly that the race for some battleground states will be closer than many thought, and then the polls indicated. Nevada up for grabs, or will Obama destroy McCain on election day itself?

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