Sarah Palin, Political Force

October 31st, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:
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Reuters published an ‘analysis‘ (which normally means a column – the term ‘analysis’ enables the editors to pass it off as news rather than opinion) in which Ed Stoddard argues that no matter the outcome of the elections, Governor Sarah Palin will be a political force of immense significance.

Matthew Wilson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas told Stoddard: “If they do in fact lose on Tuesday she becomes one of the central figures for 2012. Clearly, Palin is a star with the social conservatives but many of the country-club Republicans just find her completely unpalatable.”

Of course Palin is social conservative Republicans’ dream politician: she is beautiful, intelligent, a good and popular governor, Evangelical, socially conservative, opposed to gay marriage and abortion. Additionally, she is a mother of five who decided to give birth to a baby diagnosed with Down’s Syndrom, she is a populist and she enjoys hunting.

What is there not to like for the average Republican from ‘the heartland’?

Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, which is a lobby group with Evangelical ties, said: “I think that she will be a major contender … and she will certainly be in the running.”

Although the base loves her, however, the rest of the population does not. She has far lower favorability numbers than the Democratic candidate for vice president Sen. Joe Biden, for instance. This while a majority of the American electorate thinks little of him.

It seems very possible that Palin will be the darling of the social conservative base of the Republican Party, while fiscal conservatives, libertarian conservatives, and moderate conservatives will oppose her with the same passion they opposed Governor Mike Huckabee during the Republican primaries for the election this year. Then too, the party was divided between different conservative sub-groups with all of them declaring war on each other and with their own ‘leader.’

Palin turning into the main representative of the social conservative base may very well result in an even more divided Republican Party than currently exists.

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