Latest Poll: McCain Surges, Obama Slips
The latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows that Sen. John McCain continues to close the gap with Sen. Barack Obama. According to the poll released Saturday, Obama now has a 5-point lead.
Important is that he polled below 50%, namely 49.1%. Most experts believe that Obama has to poll constantly above 50% if he wants to win by as much as some commentators expect. If not, said experts have said in recent weeks, it could be much closer on election day than the ‘mainstream media’ have told us.
The main reason for McCain’s modest surge is that he is doing increasingly better among Independent voters. Where Obama held a considerable 15% lead among Independent voters earlier this week, that number has now been reduced to 6%.
Among women too, McCain has improved his numbers, according to Zogby. Obama’s lead among women has decreased from 9 points to only four.
“There is no doubt that McCain made some gains,” said pollster John Zogby. “It is enough to raise the question, is McCain making a move?”
The McCain campaign, meanwhile, is becoming increasingly optimistic. Campaigning in Ohio with California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger McCain himself said: “I know a winning campaign when I see one. We’re a couple of points back. Arnold said it best. The Mac is back.”
I continue to believe that Obama will win the election, however. His poll numbers have consistently been better and McCain has not polled above 45% in too long a time. 45% seems to be his maximum, which is not enough to win.
On the other hand, Tuesday could prove to be relatively close, which would be important because it would keep Obama and his team on their toes. If Obama wins in a landslide, he and his followers will believe they can pursue the ‘radical changes’ Obama wants to pursue, and has pursued throughout his political career. If, however, the race is close, he will realize that he may lose reelection if he acts ‘too liberal.’
