Latest Polls – More

November 5th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:
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Where we ran a report earlier that said that the exit polls in Pennsylvania have Democrat Barack Obama by 15% or so, Gawker gives completely different numbers, not just on Pennsylvania but on other key battleground states as well.

The exit polls as reported by Gawker (and they are all closer than the regular polls predicted):

1. Pennsylvania: Obama up by 4%. This is a nice lead for Obama considering that Pennsylvania is a traditionally blue state. If John McCain wins Pennsylvania, he is suddenly very much in the race for the White House. Although 4% is nice for Obama, it is doable for McCain to close the gap and to come out on top, especially when one realizes that McCain voters are far less likely to answer exit pollsters than Obama’s.

2. Virginia: Obama up by 2%. What was said for Pennsylvania can be said for Virginia as well, in so far that 2% is not bad for McCain, while reasonably comforting to Obama, who turned traditionally red Virginia into a true key battleground state. McCain has to perform well here.

3. North Carolina: McCain, 2%. Another important state, and another exit poll showing the race to be far closer than expected. The regular polls had Obama and McCain tied (Obama with a very small lead of 0.4%).

4. Florida: Obama, 1%. Again a must win for both candidates, although especially for McCain. He has done his best to keep Florida in the Republican column. Winning Florida is key to a McCain path to victory. Obama, meanwhile, can afford to lose Florida, but would rather not considering the close gap in all the other states.

5. Ohio, Obama, 1%. This election could become a major landslide for Obama, if he pulls in these key battleground states by 1% or 2%, but one gets the impression – if Gawker’s numbers are reasonably correct – that it could also go the entirely different way.

Lastly, via Hot Air comes the news that McCain is leading decisively among last-minute deciders in Virginia (by 11%) and among white men in Ohio (19%). These numbers once again indicate that this could be a much closer race than expected.

Then again, if Drudge’s numbers, as reported earlier, are correct, we could see the landslide many pundits expected as well.

Meanwhile, the first counted votes will come in soon. Stand by for more.

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