Almost a month ago, I wrote an article about where I thought the McCain campaign had failed during this election cycle.  I more or less still stand by what I said then.  I won’t repeat myself much here, so be sure to read that article first.

Though some conservatives think McCain should have pressed on Bill Ayers, et. al even more and introduced Jeremiah Wright into the mix, I think it’s important to note that McCain started narrowing Barack Obama’s lead when he switched back to talking about the economy again.  Alas, it was too late.

It’s Not Pennsylvania, Stupid

First and foremost in my mind was McCain attempt to go after Pennsylvania.  Though some commentators thought this was unwise, some polls in the run-up to the election showed him gaining there.  However, I think Pennsylvania was always a pipe dream.  Maybe if McCain had gone there earlier, he could have flipped it, but we now know it would have been an uphill battle, seeing as how Obama won by 10 points there.

I think McCain would have been wiser to focus more strongly on more reliable swing states, such as Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, etc.  Obama won all these states, but by small amounts.  Indiana was particularly surprising to me, as McCain was supposed to win there (at least, so said all the narratives up to Election Day).  Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina (which is still uncalled, but looks to be going for Obama).  These still wouldn’t have won McCain the election, but he could have narrowed the gap considerably with them.  Wiped some of the glee off the faces of the Democrats.

The Palin Factor

In the first article, I wrote that a combination of too strict handling and little to no outlook on national issues defined the selection of Sarah Palin.  The idea after the interview with Katie Couric is that the McCain campaign staff simply didn’t let Palin be Palin.  She had to cram a lot of information in a short time; a tall order in any situation.

Now reports are starting to come out that the opposite may have happened, that Palin refused preparation for that interview, and that she was utterly unaware of many world issues, including the make-up of NAFTA and the fact that Africa is a continent and not a country:

I don’t know if this is all sensationalism on Fox’s part, but if Palin didn’t accept preparation, in that interview, Palin effectively was Palin.  Yet, the buck still goes to John McCain for this one.  Palin wasn’t well vetted, and it may have in part cost him the election.

Where He Went Right

Can a candidate who lost have done things right?  Sure.  He still got 163 electoral votes (current number) somehow.  I think if there’s something McCain did do right, it was wake people up to the idea of unified government for at least the next two years.  Now, the Democrats won’t get 60 votes in the Senate.  But they’ll have a formidable number of Democrats on hand, though I think some of the more progressive Democratic agenda can be limited if the more conservative wing will stand up to them.

Yet, one of McCain biggest messages in the final days, besides taxes, was that of unified government and the excesses that go along with it.  And I think that a lot of voters will remember that message and be looking for a reason to take away unified government in 2010.  I also think his message on taxes will be important, and if Obama really does start targeting lower and lower tax brackets, people will see that and not be happy.

Conclusion

Not campaigning where he was more likely to win and the selection of Sarah Palin (though not necessarily Palin herself) is probably brought down McCain’s chances to be elected.  Yet, he may have lost anyway.  This was a bad year for Republicans all across the board.  Three or four Senate races still have to yet to be called, and a handful of House races as well.  The last New England Republican Congessman Chris Shays, a moderate, was thrown out of office by a large margin.

So McCain made mistakes.  Yet, he also invariably left voters with a message warning about too much progressive taxation and the problem of unified government.  It’s a message voters are likely to remember, and if the Democrats screw up by 2010, a Republican return to power in one or more Congressional chambers may be McCain’s legacy in this election.

I’ll be back tomorrow with an analysis on Barack Obama’s strategy.