Why Republicans Were Destined To Lose. One Word
Bush.
U.S. President George W. Bush’s approval ratings are below those of Richard M. Nixon after the Watergate scandal which resulted in Nixon having to resign. He was succeeded by his vice president Gerald Ford.
Although a criminal investigation was launched against Nixon, Ford pardoned him, arguing that the country needed time to heal, to unite, not divide among pro-Nixonites and anti-Nixonites.
No such luck for Bush. There was no vice president to help him out; in fact, his vice president contributed significantly to his unpopularity.
Bush’s story is a remarkable one. His first year in office was not exactly a success. His popularity numbers tumbled. Then came 9/11/2001, and he evolved into a national hero; the true president of all Americans. His tough words and reaction to the terrorist attacks carried out by Al Qaeda resulted in the highest popularity ratings ever measured.
The lead up to his second war, against Iraq, was one of unity as well: the entire country united around him and his administration, believing that Saddam Hussein had to be removed from power.
The first weeks of the war went great. Bush’s popularity numbers remained remarkably high. The country believed it was on the right track, and that the war in Iraq was both necessary and winnable.
Years later, however, after taking thousands of losses in Iraq, with the economy collapsing completely, with Republican conservatives, moderates, and everyone else believing the country is at the wrong track, Bush has become the most unpopular president in history.
He went from the most popular president to the least popular one in a few years time.
It remains to be seen what his successor, Barack Obama, will do. At this moment, his favorability ratings are high, 68%. But, as Bush knows all too well, that can change rather rapidly.
Agreed.
There are lot of people arguing about why McCain lost, and whether some other candidate would have fared better. I believe the Republican party nominated the only person who stood a chance to beat Obama, but even that was always a long-shot (even when the polls were tied, I always thought it was an uphill battle for McCain). McCain didn’t run a perfect campaign, but even if he had I don’t know that it would have been enough to overcome Bush. So all this talk of “What if he hadn’t picked Palin?” or “What if we had nominated Romney?” is pointless, in my opinion.
It is not a coincidence that the Democratic party nominated perhaps their most left candidate, and the Republican party nominated perhaps its most moderate candidate. That is a testament to the feelings of the electorate during this cycle (mostly because of Bush), which the Democrats sought to capitalize on (push their luck) and the Republicans sought to mitigate. That is the only reason the election was even somewhat close.