Putin Keeps Everyone Guessing

November 29th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags:

Former President now Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin keeps both his allies and enemies guessing about his political future. The Washington Post has a good write up about the situation in the Kremlin, explaining very well that although many believe Putin may be staging a return to the presidency in 2009, he may also do something else entirely; like becoming chairman of Russia’s parliament.

Then there is the option that he will remain prime minister until 2012 when the next presidential elections will be held.

Whatever the case, it is clear that Putin is still the man in charge of Russia, regardless of his resignation as president earlier this year.

As president Putin said several times that he did not favor an amendment to the constitution to extend the four-year term of the presidency. Months after he stepped down, however, his successor did exactly that and Russia’s legislative bodies are poised to approve it.

This leads many to believe that Putin may force Medvedev to step down in 2009, after which early elections are called, which Putin will win. This makes sense to most considering the fact that Putin is still the most powerful man in Russia – if he would be the country’s official number two for too long, he could lose some of his authority. Additionally, insiders say Putin fears that Russia’s economy will continue to deteriorate in the coming months and years, which would make it difficult if not impossible for him to win elections in 2012. If he would win them in 2009, however, and if the term would be extended to six years for the president, Putin would have all the time he needs to revive his country’s economy.

On the other hand, there are also those who believe that Putin wants to stay prime minister or become the leader of parliament. The amendment to the constitution does not merely extend the presidential term, but also that for members of the Duma (from four to five years). This would enable him to pretend that he had nothing to do with the economic recession, after which he could make a grand comeback in 2012.

Whatever the case, it is clear that Putin is doing what he has always done best: keeping everyone guessing. His rivals, his friends, his enemies; no one knows what his next step will be. As the WaPo describes his management style: ‘Putin often prepares several options and makes a decision at the last minute.’

It has brought him tremendous success in the past, and will likely serve him well in future years. Meanwhile, he gives all of us something to talk and think about.

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