The Battle for the GOP Is On – Palin, Romney or Jindal
The latest polls of Republican and all voters indicate that the conservative Republican base favors candidates voters in general do not think too highly of.
For instance, 24.4% Republican voters want Governor Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for president in 2012. Only 13.4% of all voters agree.
At the same time, Governor Mitt Romney ranks second among all voters, six points behind Palin, but leads among all voters (be it barely).
Among conservatives, both represent an entirely different faction: Palin is the Christian conservative while Romney is the darling of (elite and well educated) fiscal conservatives. These two battled it out earlier this year with fiscal conservatives favoring Romney, Christian conservatives supporting Governor Mike Huckabee, and the party ending up with Senator John McCain as the compromise candidate.
A compromise figure not able to make life truly difficult for now president-elect Barack Obama.
Most remarkable about the figures, however, is that there is a third candidate who does relatively better (meaning: smaller gap) among all voters than among Republicans: Governor Bobby Jindal. Jindal has quite a low profile nationally, yet he already ranks third in both categories. When all voters are included, the gap between him and Romney is only 1.2%, which is remarkable.
Huckabee fares less well; he is fourth with only 9.7% among Republicans and 8.0% among all voters.
This while Huckabee was the favorite of the Christian conservative base.
So what happened to Huckabee? Palin. Although Huckabee could count on the support of Christian conservatives during the primaries, they all flocked to Palin during the general election campaign. Palin became their candidate, their darling even. The defeat made her more not less popular among this group of conservative voters for they consider her a martyr.
The above means that the Republican Party could very well nominate a person who is deemed anti-intellectual, simple, naive and overly socially conservative in 2012 or that the war between the fiscal conservative and social conservative base will continue with at least one side staying home on election day, thereby ensuring Obama a second term.
That is, unless Palin can improve her image, studies hard and convince libertarian and fiscal conservatives that she is more than just a socon (unlikely). Or if Romney will succeed in courting Evangelicals and convincing them that either his Mormon faith should not be a problem to them (unlikely) or that his faith and their faith teach the same basic principles and values (less unlikely, but not altogether likely).
Of course there is a third option, an option I consider most likely and, especially, most in the interest of the Republican Party: that conservative voters will agree on a compromise candidate who endorses conservative views in most ways. In other words, a person who is a convinced social conservative (yet not overly so, for it would make it easy to destroy a candidate who is as socially conservative and as vocal about it as Palin and Huckabee are), who also has a track record of fiscal conservatism and who sympathizes with many libertarian policies.
At this moment, it seems to me that neither Huckabee nor Palin nor Romney fit the bill (although Romney would certainly be a better choice than the other two). Jindal, however, does.
For Jindal, 2008 and especially 2009 offer a tremendous opportunity to raise his profile nationally, to court conservatives of all stripes and to implement policies rooted in conservatism. He will have to use his time in Louisiana in order to show voters that conservative policies work and improve their daily lives. He he has already done so to a tremendous degree, but the most difficult times are ahead of him. The recession is likely to worsen in the coming months with Americans in all states suffering financially. Jindal will have to control the damage and improve his state at the same time.
If he does, and if he reaches out to conservative aaries in 2012. ctivists, think tankers, academics and journalists, he could very well be the Republican to beat in late 2011, early 2012.










Huh? Your comment on Sarah Palin is completely ass-backwards. She comes from the libertarian wing of the GOP. She is a longtime libertarian Republican. She even had the enthusiastic backing of the Libertarian Party of Alaska in her 2006 Governor’s race.
Her challenge is to convince social conservatives to support her future efforts, not us libertarians. We’re already convinced. Hell, who do you think it was that started the Draft Sarah Palin for VP effort nearly 2 years ago? It was us Libertarian Republicans.
Get your facts straight next time.
It would be very strange for libertarians to support a social conservative who endorses the drug war and other government constraints on victimless personal behavior.
Get your facts straight next time, Eric Dondero.
Actually, the most likely scenario is that Obama wins a second term because the same divide present in 2008 among the factions that make up Republican voters will still be in place since Romney’s so much better than anything the social conservative crusaders could ever offer up, meaning they’re so jealous they’d prefer to lose again than let Romney’s talents speak for themselves.
2012 is a long way away. It is a bit pointless to start speculating about this now. Who would have predicted either Obama or McCain in 2004?
I’m with Eric—your article makes no sense. Do some research next time. Palin has ALWAYS been primarily a fiscal conservative; check her record carefully (balanced budgets, cutting taxes and wasteful spending). It was the McCain campaign who painted her as a social conservative because that’s what THEY needed. She has never governed as such, as mayor or governor.
Also, take another look at Jindal’s positions. He makes Palin look like a liberal on social issues.
Yeah I’m gonna have to agree that Eric’s either shamelessly going to bat for Palin or he doesn’t have his head in this game yet because all Palin is is a female Mike Huckabee–two people who are only conservative in cultural identity. They are, for lack of a better word, Culturalists. There’s no sensible reason to think that Palin or Huckabee could ever mount a serious bid for the nomination, much less challenge Obama in 4 years.
As far as the rest of the known field goes, well hell Romney would be ideal as the face of our party now, out of power, since his abilities to rebuild by building consensus throughout his accomplished record are by way of inclusion, of encouraging dissent, not by any exclusionary tendencies like we see from the culturalists. And what we need now is for the clashing factions of our party to unite.
In 4 years, yes, Jindal should be a bigger player, and I expect Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan to do well for themselves as well, if not better. But none of these three has the stature to orchestrate any party recovery currently, and they may not gravitate to the national level in 4 years either. So, my conclusion is that no recovery will be made anytime soon if Republicans are interested in elevating cultural rhetoric ahead of substance, and Obama will win more easily than he did over McCain this year. In other words, that segment of religious bigots will have to put aside their hatred of mormonism because Romney is our guy tasked to rebuild our party, and from there we’ll see, in about 2 years, how the rest of the field looks.
it’s 2012. Let’s let folks govern for a while.
I love all the commenters who say things like, “do your research next time” and then….present absolutely no “research” of their own to support their assertions.
Is this just a cut-and-paste jab that you guys use as filler when you have nothing actually substantive to say?
Fact is that Palin has a down-the-line conventional set of socially conservative positions on the drug war and abortion and gay marriage. It is true that she never made a priority of acting on those positions, but that doesn’t change the content of those positions. Trying to cast her as a libertarian is just factually wrong, not matter how much you try to change the subject.
Personally, I don’t have a problem with having social conservatives play a role in the party, but I think that as long as they continue to demand that they dominate the party absolutely and with no tolerance for any dissent, the Republican Party will continue to find it very difficult to build or sustain a viable electoral coalition. It is not social conservatism itself that is destructive, it is the intolerant purism of so many social conservatives that alienates and divides. In that way, they are similar to the intolerant haters of the left who are even as we type going ballistic in their frustration at Obama’s failure to be sufficiently “progressive” and virulently anti-Republican in his transition. For the purists from the extremes, deviations within their own party are considered worse than those on the other side.
I now leave the thread for the intolerant social conservatives to prove my point for me by posting more abusive comments towards anyone who has the temerity to, you know, disagree with them or anything.
For all of you who don’t know, Eric Dondero himself is a libertarian Republican and runs a blog called “Libertarian Republican.” He was one of the many bloggers pushing for Palin’s nomination before she became a big news item. And he’s right that the Libertarian Party of Alaska was enthusiastic about her, because she ran on libertarian policies–she didn’t run on her social conservatism.
Most of her social conservative positions are held by most people in the Republican party, as most Republicans are social conservatives to one degree or another. She doesn’t support gay marriage and doesn’t want to legalize drugs (although she’s tried pot). Most Republicans don’t. Some of her public statements are extreme though—like saying she wouldn’t support abortion in the case of rape. (That by itself, btw isnt un-libertarian, just an extreme position. Ron Paul is opposed to abortion. )
Eric Dondero has also in the past been a relentless troll who had to be banned for a time because of his insistence on being personally abusive towards those who disagreed with him even a tiny bit. So please don’t expect me to grant him deference or collegiality because of his blog.
Anyway, calling oneself a libertarian can’t counteract blatant contradictions of basic libertarian principles. If he rejects the basic libertarian principles against government constraints on victimless personal autonomy, I don’t see why his blog isn’t just called “Republican” since his Republican loyalties must therefore trump any vestiges of libertarianism.
The Libertarian Party seems to be highly inconsistent in its loyalty to its supposedly basic principles. The endorsements of Bob Barr and Ron Paul are hardly acts of fidelity to the principles of personal autonomy that supposedly lie at the core of libertarianism.
Of course, speaking as a member of a third party myself, I can state from first hand experience that many times third parties degenerate from their core principles to become mere collections of disparate marginal political characters rather than an intellectually coherent group. With their frequent embrace of bizarre theories (e.g. conspiracy theories and fringe causes like recycled 19th Century economics), the members of the Libertarian Party that I have encountered over the years certainly seem to fulfill this expectation. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the LP of Alaska embraced Palin any more than it surprises me that Libertarians embraced Barr or Paul at various times.
But you can’t convince me that those embraces are philosophically consistent with what are supposedly the core principles of libertarianism.
To play devil’s advocate Jason: Don’t you think you’re advocating the purism you hate so much by arguing against the inconsistency of the LP by nominating Barr or Paul?
I don’t think you can argue against the social conservatives demanding the Republicans being pure socialcons and then turn around and say it’s wrong for a libertarian to be anything other than a pure libertarian.
Good points on the conspiracy theory thing.
Purism objects to any deviation from orthodoxy, no matter how tangential or trivial. But any legitimate political party has a very few principles that are fundamental. For Republicans, it is fiscal conservatism (the social conservatism is an add-on from the 1980s and is definitely not intrinsic to the party’s broader intellectual history — no less a rock-ribbed Republican than Barry Goldwater outright rejected the social conservative grafting). For Democrats, it is maintaining a social safety net. And for Libertarians, it is maintaining personal autonomy (a.k.a. liberty). To the extent that Barr and Paul have been known to compromise or curtail their acceptance of personal liberty (with Barr, it is his social conservatism and with Paul it is that plus his periodic association with outright racism), I think they betray what libertarianism fundamentally stands for.
And when Palin embraces socially conservative orthodoxy alongside her fiscal conservatism, I think she retains a legitimate claim to be a core member of the Republican Party, but I don’t see how a non-hypocritical Libertarian can embrace or promote her except from an unprincipled “cult of the margins” perspective.
Getting back to the original issue…
would Jindal be a good choice for 2012?
Some say yes…he’s young, smart, has come up with a health care plan for Louisiana, and has risen fast in the ranks. Sounds a bit like Obama
Some say no…he opposes abortion in all cases, opposes stem-cell research, and is Catholic. The first two would be unpopular with independents and the third with the base; it’s said that being Catholic is what kept Sam Brownback, someone with strong conservative credentials, from doing better in the primaries.
Then there’s the exorcism that Jindal said he participated in back in the 90’s. Not only does that sound rather strange, but it’s at odds with Catholic teachings that only a priest can conduct an exorcism. The church probably wouldnt’ agree with Jindal’s advocacy of intelligent design either.
Overall, I’d have to say that Jindal, while probably being a better choice than Palin, would probably not be as good a pick as someone better known like Romney or maybe Huckabee.
This article has fallen into the trap that the liberal media is trying to set for Palin. They want her to be seen primarily as a social conservative, because they don’t want her to appeal to moderates and independents.
In Palin’s RNC speech, she never spoke about either abortion or gay marriage – her message was good government and less of it. She talked about how she had governed with an ear to her constituents and had fought special interests. She mentioned how she took on Alaska’s culture of corruption and started reining in earmarks.
Matt Lewis of Townhall has already put together a montage of quotes and actions regarding Palin’s fiscal record in Alaska before the campaign. Check it out here – http://townhall.com/blog/g/0dec7ac9-3af7-460c-9780-e70109ce9b42
Palin was also known for her bipartisan governance.
If Palin runs in 2012, it will be primarily on a diverse platform of fiscal conservatism, energy independence, and a record of achievement in bipartisan work. She won’t shy away from issues such as abortion or gay marriage either, but I’m sure the focus of her campaign would be on the economy, energy, and bipartisanship. Please don’t go along with the stereotype of her as Huckabee-like social conservative.
Jindal may be plausible in 4 years, but I don’t see him on the top of the ticket. I agree with others’ comments about unknowns or the younger generation Republicans, but truly cannot see Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty, or Cantor ascending to the top half of the ticket. Maybe Paul Ryan–he’s pretty impressive–but I really think, as others have said, that Romney will rise to the top in terms of the leading figure of the soon to be totally out-of-power Republican party. I think no one is a more articulate or appealing voice than Mitt, and he’ll serve as a good foil to Obama on TV. The others may advance nicely, but they really cannot speak with any authority on national matters simply because they haven’t got the stature.
Now, everyone talks about how great a campaign unknown Huckabee managed this year. And he did; no question. But Mitt Romney was also largely unknown as well. Not totally unknown as Huckabee was, but when the rest of the names were McCain, Rudy, and Fred Thompson, and Romney was a one term governor from Massachusetts, he had no comparable stage and spent most of his time introducing himself on the national level. What’s more is that the entire field formed a practical alliance against him. Not only did Mike Huckabee stay in the race just to dilute Romney, but Fred stayed in through Florida to also help out his ole buddy McCain. Both Mike and Fred flanked Romney from the social Right. Then on from the moderate flank, were McCain and Rudy. Notice how Rudy decided (stupidly or, more likely, loyally) to simply not campaign until Florida, then quickly getting out. This served only to aid John McCain as Rudy was McCain’s biggest threat to dilute all those moderate and liberal Republican votes, as well as the crossovers in states that have open primaries. Getting all the business types, the fiscal conservatives, Romney did well for himself among other moderate Republicans and even social conservatives, but with a much more well known field aligned against him, he clearly didn’t prevail. However he is the only real name from the 2008 guys who is thought to have a shot in 4 years. This speaks volumes. The reason for that is because he wasn’t really embraced until it was too late. It began after his Florida loss (where the shameless Gov. Crist had an 11th Hour endorsement of McCain (in hopes, surely, that it would land him the VP slot and hopefully bail him out of his mess in Florida) and McCain wove that terrible lie about Romney secretly supporting timetables for withdrawal in Iraq (a now-moot point since we have a time “horizon” for getting the troops out now)), then after Super Tuesday, into his exit speech at CPAC. Simply, Republicans historically have that annoying tendency to make someone lose a primary before letting them win it next time. We want to know our guy before we marry him, in other words. Not enough knew Romney this time, but as the clock struck midnight, enough of us realized we had the wrong guy and so instead of going home with him we left him at the alter, which is the only way he got fewer votes in 2008 than John Kerry did in 2004–Republicans stayed home.
In any event, the aftermath for the GOP of President Bush and the 2006 and 2008 elections is painfully clear. The status quo will not do. Bush ran as a uniter, then tried to unite by way of appeasing far too much of the democrat domestic agenda while attempting to placate conservatives with his tax cuts and his own cultural ID as being one of them social conservatives, all the while going back on his campaign promise to get America out of the nation-building business that Camp Clinton had gotten us into when he decided to parlay the successful war in Afghanistan to going into Iraq. Noble cause, strategic long term goal, and validity of invasion issues notwithstanding, it has all taken a heavy toll on the party that is supposed to stand for personal responsibility, smaller yet more efficient government, maintaining peace through strength (strongest military yet adhering to a non-interventionalist foreign policy), striving for peace by way of promoting free trade. Bush presided over the largest expanse of government, ever. He tried to be all things and only upset pretty much everyone. Obama convinced more voters that he would cut more taxes than John McCain. The appeal and currency of smaller government hasn’t expired, we just didn’t get a guy who was suitable for the cause, and our current party leader failed.
I don’t see Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin as capable individuals who can recover the fumbled baton. Palin was unfairly trashed in the general election, but some things about her were legitimately indefensible (not knowing the role of the VP in relation to the Senate, and failing to name even one reform her runningmate McCain had ever fought for) and she has a huge project ahead of her in fixing her own image. Mike Huckabee, well even though he did do so well, he truly only ever was a regional success, then a hatchetman for McCain out of his own unchristian disdain for mormonism and Mitt Romney. No matter, even if he did have a chance, Palin easily is the dominant player in that sector, and even if she falters, Huckabee’s been only angering every Republican on the planet surface with his new book that is basically him taking the low road on everyone who didn’t support him in 2008, lol.
Perhaps Jindal can, perhaps Pawlenty can, maybe Ryan, maybe Cantor, but there is Mitt Romney, whose entire life has been about turning around broken and failed things. As he did get more actual Republican votes than anyone else in the primary up till the point at which he suspended his campaign, and as he did find himself between the cultural conservatives on the right and the moderates on the left, he does stand the best chance to unite a party at-odds in the wilderness over the next couple of years.
Alas, none of this might not make a tangible difference since it seems like the same nation that was hungry for ‘an historic’ election would be less likely to deny Obama a second term than they would’ve been to grant him a first term to begin with. Especially since all signs point to him running a Clintonian centrist government. However, if he does submit a poor first term, then there is no way a Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin will defeat him, but Mitt Romney could. Bobby Jindal remains questionable for reasons others have mentioned already, but I would conclude that he’d do better than Palin or the Huck as well. But I really cannot project any of these young guns as top of the ticket material 4 years from now.
My pipedream is for the ticket to be, in either order, Romney/Petraeus or Petraeus/Romney.
Thank you for all the supportive comments her of my original comment, and for all you all backing me up on the facts against the Editor, who seems rather clueless on the issue of Sarah Palin’s libertarian background.
But hey, don’t take my word for it. Just Google: “Sarah Palin libertarian.” You might find the big article from mid-October by the Boston Globe that had sent an investigative reporter up to Alaska to dig into her background. The title of the article was “Sarah Palin an extremist libertarian who wants to privatize government services, whose anti-zoning, and against eminent domain.” Yeah, that’s right, the Globe thought by slamming her for being Pro-Property Rights, that that would be a negative to her.
I go back to 2006. And I should remind the editor here, that I WAS IN ALASKA IN 2006. I remember Palin being attacked by her opponents for being a “libertarian.” First, it came in the GOP primaries by Frank Murkowski and some social conservatives who started a whisper campaign, “Sarah is not really a Republican you know… she’s actually a Libertarian.” All because she had attended a few Libertarian Party meetings that year. But that didn’t stop them. They even started saying that “Sarah is a supporter of drug legalization…” All because she once made a positive comment about marijuana, and had admitted to smoking it herself in her Youth. It didn’t stop there. In the general election, the Democrats used the ‘L’ word against Sarah Palin too. They tried to say she was a “government slashing libertarian,” who didn’t care for the people. And the ultra-liberal Anchorage media backed them up on this.
Now we’ve got people like Jason, two and a half years later, trying to slam her for being exactly the opposite? Trying to claim she’s some sort of Mike Huckabee snake-handling religious conservative.
My gosh. Can the woman ever get a break? First she’s attacked for being “too libertarian,” and then she’s attacked for not being “libertarian enough.”
I guess it shows how truly powerful she is, and how much of an impact she has on people, that those from all sides, feel the need to trash her.
How about none of the above? Very few people in 2004 had ever heard of Barack Obama.
I say we support Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina. He has the fiscal credentials of Mitt Romney, the conservative views of Palin- and most importantly, he has executive experience.
http://www.draftsanford2012.com
Sanford’s another prospective player, of course. Alongside Mike Pence, Sanford is sort of in that next-gen GOP class but sort of not. Both names surfaced as veep options in 2008 as well. They lacked the luster that catapulted Huckabee, Palin and Jindal into the spotlight however. Nonetheless Sanford and Pence are names that belong alongside Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor, who by most measures are reasonable, sane, pragmatic people, not culture warfare crusaders. Sanford and Pense will have to become undull somehow.
However, I beg to differ about Obama being a no-name in 2004. I think pretty much any politicalwatcher was well, well aware of him before that. When he gave his speech in 2004 at the DNC convention, everyone knew his name, and there was ample speculation then on out that he would run for the Presidency because he was one dynamic, promising guy. So, I don’t think it’s wrong to be speculating today on who from our flat landscape of republicans might rise up and build something meaningful. It’s not being disrespectful to the President-Elect and his incoming administration. I don’t think people, Republicans, considering who is in our ranks that could become a leading voice and potential nominee are in the wrong for cleaning our own house. We’re not being Rush Limbaugh and just bashing the next President before he even takes office, lol. We’re tending to our own affairs, as we should be.
Dondero,
First, there is nothing about physical presence within a state that makes one infallible in stating what that state’s politicians believe. Your claim to authority is bizarre in substance, but your attempt to invoke it is indicative of ill intentions.
Second, your lack of direct evidence is telling. All you have is the fact that some people criticized her for being too libertarian. You use those criticisms to respond to criticisms by others that she is a social conservative. In short, you are inconsistent in how you interpret criticisms, accepting those that support your view of Palin as beyond question while rejecting those that dissent from your view out-of-hand. What is completely missing is reference to her actual statements. I suspect this is because you know that her actual statements reflect a thoroughly conventional social conservatism, including support for the drug war and other government restrictions on personal autonomy that are fundamentally at odds with the core precepts of libertarianism.
Now, if all you have to offer is such indirect evidence, your case is weak indeed. I am speaking here as someone who has defended Palin in the past against unfair criticisms, not as someone hell-bent on casting her as a “snake-handling religious conservative” (your dishonesty in attributing to me something that I did not in fact say is noted as behavior typical of a troll, not an honest discussant). I frankly think that Palin got a completely bum rap from the national media (especially the legions of reporters deployed to Wasilla to dig up dirt, treatment not accorded to any other candidate), but I also think based on her OWN statements that she IS a conventional social conservative who is thus a poor leader for a future broadened Republican electoral coalition.
You have a choice now. You can engage that concern on the substance, or you can continue to tell lies about what I do or do not say and throw dirt in the air and hope enough other Kool-Aid-drinkers will show up to provide backup for the scripted talking points. Furthermore, you can continue to rely on second-class indirect evidence in the form of quoting Palin’s critics, or you can switch to the best evidence from Palin herself.
Of course, the latter may require that you depart from your slavish narrative of admiration-without-question. Can’t have that, can you?
Jason,
Being socially conservative is certainly not what we think of when we think of a libertarian, but Ron Paul by all means is definitely a libertarian–he’s not what you’d call a ‘conventional’ social conservative.
He also fits in with the people in the Constitution Party, which, by many measures are a libertarian party, except that they disagree with other libertarians on social issues. He parts with them in some ways–the Constitution Party is friendlier to policies like tariffs, while Paul, though opposing NAFTA, also supports free trade.
I don’t care whether Palin is really a libertarian or not, I just think its an error to put her in a box. She has some libertarian views and some views that run counter to libertarianism –her politics are a little idiosyncratic because Alaskan politics is idiosyncratic, and when she ran for governor she ran on the libertarian issues and not on the social conservative issues. If she chose how her Vice Presidential candidacy was covered this year, I’m also pretty sure she would have wanted emphasis on her libertarian views and not her social conservative views.
I don’t think she wants to be seen as the “social conservative candidate.” And by that means, she isn’t a ‘conventional’ social conservative, either.
The problem is putting everyone in little boxes.
the issue at this point is that there is a lot to do in the next three years before anyone would have a decent case of running against the liberal illuminati who did so well in this race.
If Sarah Palin really wants to put her money where her mouth is, she’d say “thanks but no thanks” to the Juneau Road to Nowhere and the Knik Arm Bridge to Nowhere! Alaska received money for these projects in the same federal spending spree that gave them the other Bridge to Nowhere. The total cost of both of these projects is well over $1 billion, and the decision is hers to cancel them or allow them to go forward. That will be the true test of what’s behind her fiscal conservative tough talk. Check out http://www.akbridgesandroadstonowhere.org for the details and this video about the crazy dangerous Juneau Road to Nowhere… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fai9UT8ZRrk
redfish,
I would concede that Paul is pretty close to a libertarian on many issues (though he is a social conservative on two major issues — abortion and immigration), though I would also highlight him as an example of the “cult of the margins” pathology that frequently undermines libertarianism. His bizarre embrace of unmodified 19th century economic theories, conspiracy theorists, and periodically even racists serves to make him a very poor exemplar of any political philosophy that seeks to be taken seriously either intellectually or morally. Even on the one issue you talk about (free trade) Ron Paul’s proclamations are often philosophically inconsistent and/or grounded on serious factual misrepresentations (especially about what is and is not in the Constitution) and/or fundamentally non-responsive to basic facts about the modern world.
As for Palin, if she wants to be seen a a libertarian and to distance herself from social conservatism, she has every opportunity to do so herself rather than rely on indirect reading of tea-leaves as Dondero wants us to do. Her choice not to do so indicates a conscious refusal, in my eyes. I’m generally sympathetic to Palin, however, so I would be very happy if she changed course to distance herself from social conservatives. If she thus proves me wrong, I’d be inclined to be much less critical of her potential to be a leader in a renewed Republican Party.
I don’t like rigid pigeonholes either, but I think that some things are fundamental and not just tangential. And I really like the core principle of libertarianism — personal autonomy — so I get disappointed when I see it corrupted and undermined by things like Palin’s adherence to a contradictory social conservatism or Ron Paul’s embrace of bizarre and irresponsible crank theories at the direct expense of responsible advocacy.
1.) Palin’s a darling of the social conservatives because of her identity, therefore unlibertarian by default.
2.) Ron Paul has many oddities about many of his supporters, and himself as well, but he is to be commended for not straying from the Republican Party and becoming one of these Third Party clowns. Third Parties are stupid and dilutive. The essence of virtually any debate, problem or issue naturally breaks down into two pretty distinct philosophies. This is why we have two major parties, and why preferably they disagree rather than work together in the spirit of bipartisanship to get things done. Using European multi-party systems to serve as an example of a government model where third parties are successful is a poor effort given that the United States remains the youngest nation yet has the longest standing government, and democracy. For all the whining and moaning about our government, no matter our President or Supreme Court, when the dust settles we remain way ahead of everyone else. So Libertarians, Constitutionalists, or Conservative Party types, please, please, please, don’t undermine your own cause by falling for some third party bozo; stay here and make your case within the Republican Party. Your odds of success are far greater that way anyway.
As I said, I am not a fan of most third parties precisely because they tend to devolve into “cults of the margins” dominated by crackpots and cranks, but the above premise is just flatly false. Look at Israel, for example. Do you really think that Shas has the same perspective as Likud or Labor?
Also, it is noteworthy that the fact that third (and fourth and even fifth) parties are electorally competitive in other countries is precisely what makes them less prone to being taken over by crackpots and cranks. The fact that they have a hope of gaining representation in government is what makes them act more responsible and reject the weirdos. I would strongly recommend that you actually learn something about comparative government systems before you make sweeping nationalist assertions of superiority on a blog that is hosted and run in Europe.
So, Jason, you will agree, mostly, with me about the cannibalistic nature of third parties, but will remain truer still to academe’s moot study of comparative government systems just to advize me to educate myself further? That’s contradictorily inconsistent.
I’m not being jingoistic or ethnocentric in pointing out that the American model is unique in how long it has lasted, and served as a force for democratization elsewhere. Those are merely facts. Clearly parties have come and gone throughout American history too, but in these instances is was a party rising to replace one that had become or was becoming defunct for whatever reason. Now, I’m not claiming there could never be a viable third party in modern American politics (which is a topic of discussion in Comments, irrespective of whichever nation’s outlet the host server may be plugged into), only reiterating that they are far more dilutive than instrumental. (Ron Paul did far better both for himself and influencing opinion by using the party platform rather than running as some third party fringe character like Bob Barr.)
As well as taking to task my knowledge of political science, you are also questioning my aptitude in logic and philosophy. I’ll grant you that in the confines of the sentence you isolated–separate from the elective political context within which it was written–yes, I’m wrong and there is no absolute that debates over any given issue will break down into two disntinct philosophies. For concern of practical matters though, meaning American elections and party politics, it is true. Many disenfranchised conservatives or spirited libertarians may desire coalescing around non-Republican voices or figures, and so say they do so. For a time that may serve a purpose to redirect or refocus the course of the GOP, but it will do little to establish a new party because the core tenets they hold are shared in the Republican party. In other words, the wayward Republicans ‘forced’ into a third party will find they can’t win on their narrow platform and will have to return to the party they left, or will have to expand their new party to be more inclusive. The result will be that either that third party eats the party it split from, or it is just another third party group of malcontents that gets piled on the ash heap of third parties. America is too big, and increasingly collegial for a third party to gain a foothold as you think it capable.
Citing Israel as an example is illogical and irrelevant since the nature of your example is one predicated on age old ethnic and religious squabbles–things that don’t exist in America unless your name is Mike Huckabee. As equally unrelated is the theory that competitive third parties in such lands is what prevents crackpots or despots from gravitating to power. Perhaps that is the case in some places, but the checks and balances of the 3 branches of the American system, and term limits, are what prevent that from being the case in America.
IN any event, if some are feeling fed up with their party, maybe it’s best they pursue the path of changing it from the inside rather than trying to set up shop in some single-issue third party. Hey, look at this year as all the evidence you need. The establishments of both the Democrat and Republican parties had their preferred candidates lose. It wasn’t the Clinton democrats, or the DLC, who advocated for Obama; he had the old liberal guard push him to the front. It wasn’t the GOP who supported McCain; he’s loathed by many Republicans in fact, yet he benefitted from the fractured field and fragile state of the party at the time. So what is patently false is to give up as if the two-party system is rigged and no one can get around the party bosses if they want to get nominated.
Palin may be the darling of the social conservatives, but she hasn’t ever been a vocal social conservatine as you say. In fact Jindal has been a lot more vocal – maybe as a function of running in a southern state vs. Alaska.
I really don’t believe that there is much of a divide between economic conservatives and social conservatives, however. Most self-described conservatives are in both camps. As for the few who aren’t, the right candidate can easily appeal to both, but to stand a chance against Obama will need to energize social conservatives especially. It’s much more likely that social conservatives will sit out the election than that economic conservatives will.
The real divide is between economic moderates and social conservatives. The republican party tried to appeal to the moderates in 2008 by deemphasizing social issues and got trounced. It needs to find a candidate who can get the social conservatives and a good portion of economic moderates. Palin stands a much better chance at doing this that any of the others mentioned since she can run on a relatively moderate platform and still keep the conservative base energized.
“I don’t care whether Palin is really a libertarian or not, I just think its an error to put her in a box.”
I agree with you Redfish.. but don’t you know that is the name of the game?
Putting a politician in a box is the easy way out, that way you can assign all the negatives of that groups box to that person you are trying to box. I think Palin has A LONG LONG way to go to gain any sort of foothold as a serious contender going forward, but I do support her “un-boxiness” if that is a real phrase. If she can keep that up, I think that will only help her with the undecideds and maybe pull in a some disenfranchised middle-lefties and middle-righties.
Your charge that Palin doesn’t have appeal to “middle-righties,” is just plain wrong. What about Joe the Plumber? He was the ultimate “middle-righty.” Middle-righties are essentially Ross Perotistas. That’s precisely what Palin is. She’s a libertarian Ross Perot type, like her political mentor former Gov. Wally Hickle of the Alaska Independence Party.
Jason says:
As for Palin, if she wants to be seen a a libertarian and to distance herself from social conservatism, she has every opportunity to do so herself rather than rely on indirect reading of tea-leaves as Dondero wants us to do. Her choice not to do so indicates a conscious refusal, in my eyes. I’m generally sympathetic to Palin, however, so I would be very happy if she changed course to distance herself from social conservatives. If she thus proves me wrong, I’d be inclined to be much less critical of her potential to be a leader in a renewed Republican Party.
Eric responds:
Jason buddy. I was there on Election Night Nov. 8, 2006 at the downtown Egan Center in Anchorage. I saw Sarah Palin with my own two eyes publicly thank the Libertarian Party for their support for her campaign. In fact, she thanked them nearly first, after her family, and assembled VIPs. This was in front of over 1,000 Alaska politicos.
Believe me, she does not shy away from the libertarian label at all. Now, she won’t call herself a “Libertarian Party member,” but she will say that she’s a small ‘l’ libertarian, or “libertarian-conservative.” She’s been asked about that numerous times by the Anchorage media, and in debates, and she’s never backed down.
“indirect evidence” of Palin’s libertarian affiliations?
I’ve asked you to Google “libertarian Sarah Palin” like 3 times now.
I’ve pointed you to two articles: one in mid-October by the Boston Globe slamming her for being a “libertarian,” and another much more recently, two weeks ago in the World Net Daily, “Palin is much more of a Libertarian, than a Republican.”
Hardly what I would call 2nd hand evidence as you suggest.
Eric, I can call myself and athlete, but that wouldn’t make it so. It also wouldn’t make me an athlete if I thanked or expressed my admiration for athletes in front of a crowd of 1,000 sports fans. And why do you keep trying to claim some kind of infallible personal authority based solely on your physical presence in Alaska?
Palin can only legitimately be called libertarian to the extent that she supports and upholds libertarian principles. The most fundamental of these is personal autonomy. It is intrinsically in conflict with social conservatism in a variety of areas, including the drug war and (to a more controversial degree) abortion. In her actual policy positions (you still can’t seem to bring yourself to use direct evidence), she consistently embraces socially conservative restrictions on personal autonomy. This indicates that her social conservatism trumps any vestigial fondness for libertarian principles. Bottom line: Whenever social conservatism is in conflict with libertarianism, Palin chooses social conservatism.
Can you respond substantively to this argument? Or do you only have another “I was in Alaska” anecdote to offer???
P.S. Counting Google hits or quoting the possibly misguided statements of critics is NOT direct evidence. Direct evidence of a politician’s commitments comes from their official policy statements and official actions. Critiques by others or unofficial statements in the form of thank-yous at a political rally are by definition INdirect evidence (and very poor quality indirect evidence, at that). Also, comments by others ABOUT Palin are BY DEFINITION “2nd hand”. Are you seriously claiming to be a credible political commentator while being ignorant of basic differentiations between types of evidence?
Please provide direct evidence of Palin taking SUBSTANTIVE libertarian positions in conflict with social conservative alternatives or else consider yourself defeated in this debate and buzz off.
“Your charge that Palin doesn’t have appeal to “middle-righties,” is just plain wrong.”
Read it again Eric, I didn’t say that…
“If she can keep that up, I think that will only help her with the undecideds and maybe pull in a some disenfranchised middle-lefties and middle-righties.
(as in being disinfranchised with standing with their far left and far right cohorts)
Umm Sorry Jason, but you are wrong. Issues are not the only thing that makes one a “libertarian.” Take it from a 25 hardcore Libertarian political activist, sometimes called the Number One Libertarian Political Activist in the country. And I’ve got the bonafides to prove it:
You’re looking at the guy who got Ron Paul elected in Congress first time in 1996.
You’re looking at the guy who single-handidly founded the Republican Liberty Caucus.
You’re looking at the guy who for years has fought to move the Libertarian Party to political mainstream, ever since my first stint on the Libertarian National Committee in 1986.
You’re looking at the guy who worked in 7 states this year to get Libertarian Bob Barr on ballot: Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn. and Rhode Island. I collected more signatures than anyone else, and have been called by LP Political Director Sean Haugh, the Nation’s “Number One Libertarian Petitioner.”
There are two other things that matter when judging whether someone is a libertarian or not, and all three are of equal importance:
Associations and affiliations.
How much one contributes to the libertarian movement monetarily or through hard work.
Sarah Palin is libertarian on about 80 to 90% of the issues. She qualifies way more than is required by the libertarian label. Anyone who scores above 65/65 on the Nolan Chart test is a “libertarian.” Her score is about 85/85.
Sarah Palin qualifies on the associations and affiliations leg of the libertarian stool. She has attended a number of Libertarian Party meetings in Alaska. Her husband was a dues-paying member for many years of the Alaska Independence Party, which was founded by Libertarian Party members in the 1980s. She publicly embraced the Libertarian Party in the final days of her election for Governor in 2006.
Finally, Sarah Palin has greatly assisted the entire libertarian movement by popularizing the libertarian term nationwide and in the media. We libertarians are extremely proud to have our label associated with such an attractive and prominent spokesperson as Sarah Palin.
So, in sum she gets a:
B+
A-
B+
on the libertarian scale. She’d get a straight A on the 2nd one if she herself was a dues-paying member of the LP, but there’s no evidence that she ever joined the Party with a $25.00 contribution unfortunately.
She is not a Purist fanatical libertarian, for sure. But she’s WELL WITHIN, the spectrum of moderate to conservative libertarian. Much like Tom McClintock of California, Butch Otter of Idaho, and Jeff Flake of Arizona.
…And where will Miss Palin’s Libertarian marks and her cultural appeal get her? Look, it’s insane to think Sarah Palin will be a leader of some movement whether from within or from outside the Republican party.
The reason for her success is that she is female, and a good looking, pretty face reinforcing opinions people already have. Assign her record and attributes and rhetoric and 9 week national performance to a male candidate, and how excited would you be?
In that case, your guy Ron Paul has a lot to answer for for his periodic associations with and acceptance of endorsements and funding from Stormfront and other racists over the last two decades.
Once again, you claim special personal authority as the only basis for your assertions, but you fail to provide any specific evidence to prove your assertions true. I call BS on your claim that Palin’s positions are 80-90% libertarian until you can specify the EXACT policy statements from Palin that prove that true.
Her husband’s association with a secessionist party is hardly in your favor. First, it proves nothing about HER beliefs, it only provides a tentative and ultimately inconclusive indication of HIS beliefs. Unless you believe husbands control their wives’ political beliefs, your evidence regarding Todd Palin is simply irrelevant and is yet again an attempt to provide poor quality indirect evidence to cover up your complete lack of direct evidence in the form of Palin’s OWN statements. Second, association with a secessionist party is not what I think is going to provide a good foundation for appeal as a leader of a Republican revival. Perhaps you have forgotten that this is the PARTY OF LINCOLN we are talking about. Secessionist associations is a very poor fit.
Keep trying, though. You are providing an excellent demonstration of the continuing weakness of your position. If your claims were true, it would be easy for you to provide quotations from Sarah Palin herself as evidence. Your failure to do so after repeated requests and your persistence in trying to assert bizarre claims of personal authority (i.e. your “I was actually in Alaska…” claim to authority unwittingly imitates Tina Fey’s satirical “I can see Russia from my house!”) and citation of increasingly remote and irrelevant forms of indirect evidence is strong proof that you just don’t have the evidence you need to prove your claims to be true.
Sarah Palin may be a charismatic and relatively non-aggressive representation of social conservatism, but I don’t think anyone is going to be fooled into seeing her as a champion of basic libertarian principles of personal autonomy as long as she continues to support government infringements on personal autonomy in the form of a continuing drug war and use of government power to implement some various religious principles with regards to abortion, gay marriage, etc. And I do like her approach to fiscal issues.
So, I am willing to be convinced that I am wrong IF you can provide actual quotes FROM HER that indicate that she does not prioritize social conservatism over principles personal autonomy. But given your testimony of your longstanding association and involvement with libertarianism, I think that if you are unable to provide those direct quotations FROM HER, that is conclusive proof that no such evidence exists and that you are just spinning.
I personally think that pole is way off. More people want Sarah Palin to run than 24%….So many people try to tear her down, but you are really only building her up for a victory!! Sarah Palin you have my vote!!
YOU ROCK SARAH PALIN!!