The terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, have caused the tensions between longtime rivals India and Pakistan to rise significantly.

India believes that the terrorists were trained in Pakistan and part of a Pakistani anti-India group. Pakistan responded that there was no definite proof of a Pakistan connection and security officials informed reporters that Islamabad may pull back some troops from the Pakistan-Afghan border and deploy them to the border with India instead “if tensions continue to escalate.”

Although tensions are increasing signficantly between the two nuclear countries, analysts say it is unlikely that we will see “a flash point” any time soon. Both sides will probably refrain from causing a war, or even minor battles along the two borders, knowing full well that if the other wants it can destroy entire cities by dropping just one bomb. Such a war would cause chaos and instability on an unprecedented scale and both governments know it.

The United States, meanwhile, will be sucked in – is already sucked in the controversy – but it will have to make sure that neither its relationship with Pakistan nor that with India will truly be hurt by the attacks. This may be difficult for President Bush to do, considering his infamous Bush Doctrine, but Obama will succeed him one month from now. Obama can break with the Bush Doctrine if he wants. And he will want to, because the Bush doctrine cannot possibly be implemented in this particular case.

As said, the U.S. is involved already. The threats to remove troops from the Afghan-Pakistan border and to deploy them to the border with India instead is a clear sign that Pakistan thinks it can get the U.S. involved in one way or another. At the same time there is of course India who understand that Bush followed a particular foreign policy aimed at terrorists and ‘those who provide shelter to them.’ New Delhi will likely put similar pressure on the Bush administration as Pakistan.

“It’s part of the usual blackmail of the United States that Pakistan does to take more interest in India-Pakistan issues,” said B. Raman, a former head of Indian intelligence agency RAW.

“They think this kind of argument will make the United States sit up and take notice of their sensitivities and do something about it,” he added.

The worst thing for both sides to do right now is to let the tensions escalate. If they do, the terrorists will have accomplished what they wanted. Their goal was to disrupt Indian (political) life, and, of course, to increase support for the Islamist cause in the region, particularly in Pakistan. If tensions between India and Pakistan would increase even further, support for extremists would likely follow the same path.

Luckily India’s leaders have proved to be incredibly talented and competent in the last few years, decades even. They made some mistakes, sure, but one can generally say that they are pragmatists not idealogues, moderates not extremists. They walked down the middle road for many years, these terrorist attacks are unlikely to make them change course.

Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan’s president, will have to pull off a major balancing act as well. He will have to find a way to decrease tensions with India without appearing weak. At the same time, he will have to deal with extremists in his own country, without alienating the majority of Muslims.

Thus far, Zardari has proved to be quite a skillful leader. We will see in the coming days and weeks whether he is talented as he has to be in order to safe his country from ruin.