Israel Attacks on Hamas: Useless or Effective?
Earlier today the Israeli airforce carried out the largest scale attacks against Palestinian targets in decades: according to most reports, approximately 200 Palestinians were killed today alone.
The attacks were aimed at Hamas targets. Early reports indicate that most strikes were clean meaning that they reached the military and political targets they were supposed to hit instead of innocent civilians.
Israel announced that the air raids came in response to the thousands of rockets that Hamas fired at Israeli targets in the last week. One such rocket fell short killing two Palestinian schoolchildren instead of the innocent Israeli civilians they were supposed to kill.
Shortly after the air attacks Israel said a rocket fired by Hamas did indeed kill an Israeli civilian.
The world responded immediately to Israel’s attacks which came in response to years of terrorism from Hamas and the Palestinians who support this extremist organization dedicated to destroying the Jewish nation-state. Europe warned Israel it should not kill ‘innocent civilians,’ Nicholas Sarkozy of France called Israel’s military strikes “disproportionate,” , and Arab countries unanimously condemned the recent violence. Only the U.S. stood by Israel unconditionally, arguing that not Israel but Hamas is to blame for today’s deaths.
The criticism is unfounded, silly even. Israel did not hit Palestinians but Hamas; a group internationally recognized as a terrorist organization. Hamas has one foot in politics, as a White House spokesman put it rather well today, but the other foot is solidly in terrorism, as it always has and always will considering the group’s goals.
Israel’s attacks are, therefore, justifiable. They are comparable to America’s attacks on Afghanistan and then especially Al Qaeda targets in that country after 9/11.
The above does not mean, however, that today’s attacks will prove useful. They are justifiable but will they accomplish anything positive?
One needs to start answering that question by noting that the attacks were successful in so far that they have resulted in the death of several key Hamas figures. That does not, however, mean that the attacks will prove useful in the middle, let alone in the long run.
These Hamas figures will easily be replaced by others. Thousands, tens of thousands even, other Palestinians are waiting to take over when a senior Hamas figure disappeares. This means that Israeli attacks against Hamas will only be as successful as the country’s leadership hopes when the attacks are on an unprecedented scale, resulting in Israel taking over the territories ruled by Hamas, stays there for years, decades even, rooting out all terrorists and bringing them to justice while rebuilding Gaza at the same time thereby offering Palestinians an alternative, and peaceful, future.
Today’s attacks may help Israelis relieve some of their anger and frustration with the rocket attacks they and their fellow citizens face day in, day out but they will do little against the actual problem. Hamas will never be destroyed by force alone, and especially not by nothing more than air attacks. It will be weakened temporarily, but in order to keep Hamas down Israel will have to launch massive attacks like today’s time and again, perhaps even on a monthly basis.
However, even such constant attacks could wind up strengthening Hamas rather than weakening it. These attacks make the organization more not less popular among Palestinians, even among those who oppose Hamas normally or are at least not very sympathetic to the group’s goals and policies.
A different solution has to be found for the problem. Some air attacks will not do the trick, neither will a massive invasion of Israeli landforces which will only give the average Palestinian the impression that he is an oppressed and conquered person which will result in more rather than less terrorism and support for Palestinian terrorist organizations. Creativity is required: a combination of force (military action), diplomacy and (economic) development programs has to be developed which has to be aimed at emancipating the Palestinian people and pulling them out of their current culture of death and destruction.
Only causing more death and destruction will most certainly not suffice.
I thinks you are stating the obvious.
Any political agreement must be achieved through diplomacy, and will not be signed while under attack or by military force. I think Hamas held the opinion that Israel will never risk driving in ground forces, for many reasons, some you mentioned, others are that Israel has really nothing to do in Gaza, and has been trying to pass responsibility of those areas since the peace agreement with Egypt, until going out without any agreement whatsoever. Due to those opinions, rockets kept being launched while in the cease fire and after it, to better argue the next one.
By that, Hamas has received this weekend a wake up call.
The question is weather it wants to call face, and see how long will Israel makes war noises, or call a time off, to reorganize, just as the Hisbulla did at Lebanon.
I don’t think there is much planning here, though I am sure Israel has an invasion plan, I am not sure this is what Israel plans to actually put to act. Driving ground forces will mean lots of casualties from both sides, and this is not a good political campaign. Hamas is currently politically out casted, after forcing it’s way to the top, though it’s widely supported by the people there, there is much inside criticism, if this continues, Hamas will have a real trouble.
Israel can allow waiting and planning for the long run, thus such operations from the air can be fruitful, while the situation in Gaza is worst then ever, making the Hamas regime more fragile (or stronger, depending on your point of view).
All this boils down to the point where there aren’t that many alternatives. Either the Kasam Rockets stop or Israel will be driven into the Gaza street. It’s clear the air force strikes have a limited effect, and eventually this effect vanishes. Rockets can be launched from almost any location, and if the Hamas will want to keep them going, it’s not that hard. Air strikes cannot physically stop that.
However, it’s not a question of effectiveness, after 8 years, I don’t see how can ground forces be waiting on the Gaza border, and then saying “well, guys, on the other hand let’s give the political process another go”. This is really not a question of finding other solutions.
Israeli citizens living in cities around Gaza left no other choice.
They want their life back, and the Hamas, though convincing to people in Gaza has failed to convince them that a political process will gain them some peace.
Michael, are you sure the attacks are only military based? I have been hearing from some radio channels that there are civilian casualties.
Frustration with negotiations is certainly justified. Frustration with constant mortar attacks is certainly justified. But justifies actions are not necessarity wise actions, This current war to finish off Hamas, as some in Israel are saying, appears to be a lot like the war in Lebanon to finish off Hezbollah, and the biggest loser in that war was Lebanon and the biggest gains were made by Hezbollah. Additionally, this will have regional consequences; this conflict can not be contained in the Gaza area alone.
So far, there are 3 hundred dead in 3 days, with shortages of medical supplies for the wounded. It’s a nightmare of a PR situation, no matter what the mlitary gains might be. That means new recruits for AlQaeda and the like throughout the region, with the resultant increased danger from terrorism throughout the western world, as well.
It’s much moe complicated and much more grave that just being justified.
Well, if you check my first post, it’s about 2-3 days before ground troops entered Gaza.
Had some time to reflect.
First I’d like to reply to @meitene.
The Gaza war (as stated by Israel) was never to finish off Hamas.
It can be argued if it was a goal in the Lebanon war (regarding the Hezbollah), however, if it was it was a really a stupid unachievable goal. I think different tones are being spoken in Israel.
The goals for this war (or operation) in Israeli POV was simply to stop the rocket coming from Gaza and deteriorate the Hamas willingness to restart firing them.
If you’ll read between the line, Hamas is changing strategy.
At first they where not interested in any talking, they stopped the Thahadia (cease fire) and where doing everything they could to drive Israeli forces in (out of the belief, just as in the Lebanon last conflict, that Israel won’t come).
Now that Gaza is closing on them, and they are having hard time to show achievements, they are trying to resort into some sort of political process and world empathy, but if nothing changes soon, they will be in a worst positing in such a political process, then the position they where in before the 1st cease fire (that is both in the demagogic view and in actual resources lost).
Another thing that’s making their effort difficult is that Israel is putting a media blank over Gaza, and not much publicity can move, nor in nor out beside the Israeli one.
The thing that can change, as pointed by @meitene is if the conflict can not be contained in the Gaza area alone.
As soon as the Lebanon / Egypt (unlikable, they have a border with Gaza) / Syria / Iran / Jordan (less likable) attitude actively changes,
this can change all the Israeli plans. Of course, this can give leverage for Hamas.
I think this is a 50/50 chance. Israel is probably expecting teases from the Lebanon border, but this is not what I am talking about.
Of course there are civilian casualties, @Elif. This is an armed conflict. People are being killed. I don’t think Israel is specifically aiming civilians, but if there is a Hamas team shooting at troops, from a room with civilians, my guess is that no distinction will be made. (That goes for “in the same house” and “in the same street” as well).
I believe this is the reason why IDF is asking people to leave to the south of Gaza. The problem is that with no electricity, and scared, some don’t, plus, Hamas is probably asking/forcing people to stay, knowing that fact exactly.