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	<title>Comments on: Israel Attacks on Hamas: Useless or Effective?</title>
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	<link>http://www.poligazette.com/2008/12/28/israel-attacks-on-hamas-useless-or-effective/</link>
	<description>Because Common Sense Transcends Distance</description>
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		<title>By: yakirari</title>
		<link>http://www.poligazette.com/2008/12/28/israel-attacks-on-hamas-useless-or-effective/comment-page-1/#comment-81638</link>
		<dc:creator>yakirari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 11:41:04 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Well, if you check my first post, it&#039;s about 2-3 days before ground troops entered Gaza. 

Had some time to reflect.
First I&#039;d like to reply to &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-81339&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;@meitene&lt;/a&gt;.
The Gaza war (as stated by Israel) was never to finish off Hamas.
It can be argued if it was a goal in the Lebanon war (regarding the Hezbollah), however, if it was it was a really a stupid unachievable goal. I think different tones are being spoken in Israel.
The goals for this war (or operation) in Israeli POV was simply to stop the rocket coming from Gaza and deteriorate the Hamas willingness to restart firing them.

If you&#039;ll read between the line, Hamas is changing strategy.
At first they where not interested in any talking, they stopped the Thahadia (cease fire) and where doing everything they could to drive Israeli forces in (out of the belief, just as in the Lebanon last conflict, that Israel won&#039;t come). 
Now that Gaza is closing on them, and they are having hard time to show achievements, they are trying to resort into some sort of political process and world empathy, but if nothing changes soon, they will be in a worst positing in such a political process, then the position they where in before the 1st cease fire (that is both in the demagogic view and in actual resources lost).
Another thing that&#039;s making their effort difficult is that Israel is putting a media blank over Gaza, and not much publicity can move, nor in nor out beside the Israeli one.

The thing that can change, as pointed by &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-81339&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;@meitene&lt;/a&gt; is if the conflict can not be contained in the Gaza area alone.
As soon as the Lebanon / Egypt (unlikable, they have a border with Gaza) / Syria / Iran / Jordan (less likable) attitude actively changes, 
this can change all the Israeli plans. Of course, this can give leverage for Hamas.

I think this is a 50/50 chance. Israel is probably expecting teases from the Lebanon border, but this is not what I am talking about.

Of course there are civilian casualties, &lt;a href=&quot;#comment-81334&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;@Elif&lt;/a&gt;. This is an armed conflict. People are being killed. I don&#039;t think Israel is specifically aiming civilians, but if there is a Hamas team shooting at troops, from a room with civilians, my guess is that no distinction will be made. (That goes for &quot;in the same house&quot; and &quot;in the same street&quot; as well). 
I believe this is the reason why IDF is asking people to leave to the south of Gaza. The problem is that with no electricity, and scared, some don&#039;t, plus, Hamas is probably asking/forcing people to stay, knowing that fact exactly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, if you check my first post, it&#8217;s about 2-3 days before ground troops entered Gaza. </p>
<p>Had some time to reflect.<br />
First I&#8217;d like to reply to <a href="#comment-81339" rel="nofollow">@meitene</a>.<br />
The Gaza war (as stated by Israel) was never to finish off Hamas.<br />
It can be argued if it was a goal in the Lebanon war (regarding the Hezbollah), however, if it was it was a really a stupid unachievable goal. I think different tones are being spoken in Israel.<br />
The goals for this war (or operation) in Israeli POV was simply to stop the rocket coming from Gaza and deteriorate the Hamas willingness to restart firing them.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;ll read between the line, Hamas is changing strategy.<br />
At first they where not interested in any talking, they stopped the Thahadia (cease fire) and where doing everything they could to drive Israeli forces in (out of the belief, just as in the Lebanon last conflict, that Israel won&#8217;t come).<br />
Now that Gaza is closing on them, and they are having hard time to show achievements, they are trying to resort into some sort of political process and world empathy, but if nothing changes soon, they will be in a worst positing in such a political process, then the position they where in before the 1st cease fire (that is both in the demagogic view and in actual resources lost).<br />
Another thing that&#8217;s making their effort difficult is that Israel is putting a media blank over Gaza, and not much publicity can move, nor in nor out beside the Israeli one.</p>
<p>The thing that can change, as pointed by <a href="#comment-81339" rel="nofollow">@meitene</a> is if the conflict can not be contained in the Gaza area alone.<br />
As soon as the Lebanon / Egypt (unlikable, they have a border with Gaza) / Syria / Iran / Jordan (less likable) attitude actively changes,<br />
this can change all the Israeli plans. Of course, this can give leverage for Hamas.</p>
<p>I think this is a 50/50 chance. Israel is probably expecting teases from the Lebanon border, but this is not what I am talking about.</p>
<p>Of course there are civilian casualties, <a href="#comment-81334" rel="nofollow">@Elif</a>. This is an armed conflict. People are being killed. I don&#8217;t think Israel is specifically aiming civilians, but if there is a Hamas team shooting at troops, from a room with civilians, my guess is that no distinction will be made. (That goes for &#8220;in the same house&#8221; and &#8220;in the same street&#8221; as well).<br />
I believe this is the reason why IDF is asking people to leave to the south of Gaza. The problem is that with no electricity, and scared, some don&#8217;t, plus, Hamas is probably asking/forcing people to stay, knowing that fact exactly.</p>
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		<title>By: meitene</title>
		<link>http://www.poligazette.com/2008/12/28/israel-attacks-on-hamas-useless-or-effective/comment-page-1/#comment-81339</link>
		<dc:creator>meitene</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:40:59 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Frustration with negotiations is certainly justified.  Frustration with constant mortar attacks is certainly justified.  But justifies actions are not necessarity wise actions, This current war to finish off Hamas, as some in Israel are saying, appears to be a lot like the war in Lebanon to finish off Hezbollah, and the biggest loser in that war was Lebanon and the biggest gains were made by Hezbollah.  Additionally, this will have regional consequences; this conflict can not be contained in the Gaza area alone.
So far, there are 3 hundred dead in 3 days, with shortages of medical supplies for the wounded.  It&#039;s a nightmare of a PR situation, no matter what the mlitary gains might be. That means new recruits for AlQaeda and the like throughout the region, with the resultant increased danger from terrorism  throughout the western world, as well. 
It&#039;s much moe complicated and much more grave that just being justified.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Frustration with negotiations is certainly justified.  Frustration with constant mortar attacks is certainly justified.  But justifies actions are not necessarity wise actions, This current war to finish off Hamas, as some in Israel are saying, appears to be a lot like the war in Lebanon to finish off Hezbollah, and the biggest loser in that war was Lebanon and the biggest gains were made by Hezbollah.  Additionally, this will have regional consequences; this conflict can not be contained in the Gaza area alone.<br />
So far, there are 3 hundred dead in 3 days, with shortages of medical supplies for the wounded.  It&#8217;s a nightmare of a PR situation, no matter what the mlitary gains might be. That means new recruits for AlQaeda and the like throughout the region, with the resultant increased danger from terrorism  throughout the western world, as well.<br />
It&#8217;s much moe complicated and much more grave that just being justified.</p>
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		<title>By: Elif</title>
		<link>http://www.poligazette.com/2008/12/28/israel-attacks-on-hamas-useless-or-effective/comment-page-1/#comment-81334</link>
		<dc:creator>Elif</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 08:57:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Michael, are you sure the attacks are only military based? I have been hearing from some radio channels that there are civilian casualties.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael, are you sure the attacks are only military based? I have been hearing from some radio channels that there are civilian casualties.</p>
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		<title>By: yakirari</title>
		<link>http://www.poligazette.com/2008/12/28/israel-attacks-on-hamas-useless-or-effective/comment-page-1/#comment-81318</link>
		<dc:creator>yakirari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2008 08:22:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.poligazette.com/?p=9689#comment-81318</guid>
		<description>I thinks you are stating the obvious.

Any political agreement must be achieved through diplomacy, and will not be signed while under attack or by military force. I think Hamas held the opinion that Israel will never risk driving in ground forces, for many reasons, some you mentioned, others are that Israel has really nothing to do in Gaza, and has been trying to pass responsibility of those areas since the peace agreement with Egypt, until going out without any agreement whatsoever. Due to those opinions, rockets kept being launched while in the cease fire and after it, to better argue the next one. 

By that, Hamas has received this weekend a wake up call. 
The question is weather it wants to call face, and see how long will Israel makes war noises, or call a time off, to reorganize, just as the Hisbulla did at Lebanon.
I don&#039;t think there is much planning here, though I am sure Israel has an invasion plan, I am not sure this is what Israel plans to actually put to act. Driving ground forces will mean lots of casualties from both sides, and this is not a good political campaign. Hamas is currently politically out casted, after forcing it&#039;s way to the top, though it&#039;s widely supported by the people there, there is much inside criticism, if this continues, Hamas will have a real trouble. 
Israel can allow waiting and planning for the long run, thus such operations from the air can be fruitful, while the situation in Gaza is worst then ever, making the Hamas regime more fragile (or stronger, depending on your point of view).

All this boils down to the point where there aren&#039;t that many alternatives. Either the Kasam Rockets stop or Israel will be driven into the Gaza street. It&#039;s clear the air force strikes have a limited effect, and eventually this effect vanishes. Rockets can be launched from almost any location, and if the Hamas will want to keep them going, it&#039;s not that hard. Air strikes cannot physically stop that.
However, it&#039;s not a question of effectiveness, after 8 years, I don&#039;t see how can ground forces be waiting on the Gaza border, and then saying &quot;well, guys, on the other hand let&#039;s give the political process another go&quot;. This is really not a question of finding other solutions. 
Israeli citizens living in cities around Gaza left no other choice. 
They want their life back, and the Hamas, though convincing to people in Gaza has failed to convince them that a political process will gain them some peace.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thinks you are stating the obvious.</p>
<p>Any political agreement must be achieved through diplomacy, and will not be signed while under attack or by military force. I think Hamas held the opinion that Israel will never risk driving in ground forces, for many reasons, some you mentioned, others are that Israel has really nothing to do in Gaza, and has been trying to pass responsibility of those areas since the peace agreement with Egypt, until going out without any agreement whatsoever. Due to those opinions, rockets kept being launched while in the cease fire and after it, to better argue the next one. </p>
<p>By that, Hamas has received this weekend a wake up call.<br />
The question is weather it wants to call face, and see how long will Israel makes war noises, or call a time off, to reorganize, just as the Hisbulla did at Lebanon.<br />
I don&#8217;t think there is much planning here, though I am sure Israel has an invasion plan, I am not sure this is what Israel plans to actually put to act. Driving ground forces will mean lots of casualties from both sides, and this is not a good political campaign. Hamas is currently politically out casted, after forcing it&#8217;s way to the top, though it&#8217;s widely supported by the people there, there is much inside criticism, if this continues, Hamas will have a real trouble.<br />
Israel can allow waiting and planning for the long run, thus such operations from the air can be fruitful, while the situation in Gaza is worst then ever, making the Hamas regime more fragile (or stronger, depending on your point of view).</p>
<p>All this boils down to the point where there aren&#8217;t that many alternatives. Either the Kasam Rockets stop or Israel will be driven into the Gaza street. It&#8217;s clear the air force strikes have a limited effect, and eventually this effect vanishes. Rockets can be launched from almost any location, and if the Hamas will want to keep them going, it&#8217;s not that hard. Air strikes cannot physically stop that.<br />
However, it&#8217;s not a question of effectiveness, after 8 years, I don&#8217;t see how can ground forces be waiting on the Gaza border, and then saying &#8220;well, guys, on the other hand let&#8217;s give the political process another go&#8221;. This is really not a question of finding other solutions.<br />
Israeli citizens living in cities around Gaza left no other choice.<br />
They want their life back, and the Hamas, though convincing to people in Gaza has failed to convince them that a political process will gain them some peace.</p>
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