Israel’s November 08 Intel Report and the Gaza Attack
In my search for research about the current crisis in the Middle East, I stumbled upon this post at a clearly pro-Palestinian blog. In the post, the author refers to an article at JTA news but neglects to link to it. A quick google search showed that the author did not invent the existence nor the content of the article.
The entire article can be read here, key excerpts follow. As readers will quickly understand, the article is of crucial importance if one wants to understand the Israeli invasion of Gaza today and the air strikes carried out against Hamas targets for eight days in a row:
One of the bleaker scenarios the NSC posits for 2009 is the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. Hamas is insisting on new elections for the Palestinian presidency and parliament in January; Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas wants to extend his term for another year without new elections.
The NSC fears that Abbas might retire from public life if he fails to get his way, possibly leading to the disintegration of the Palestinian Authority. Alternatively, Abbas could compete in the elections and lose to the fundamentalist Hamas.
Either way, chances for a negotiated two-state solution would evaporate if Abbas’ moderate-led Palestinian Authority were replaced with Hamas. Israel would be left in the West Bank without a partner to negotiate an end to the occupation.
To keep Abbas in power and the two-state solution alive, the NSC recommends that Israel prevent Palestinian elections, even at the cost of a showdown with the United States and the international community.
Whatever happens, the NSC says, Israel must continue to pressure and weaken Hamas. If the current Hamas-Israel truce in Gaza breaks down, the NSC recommends that Israel launch a wide-ranging operation to topple Hamas in Gaza. Whether that would mean reoccupying Gaza, and if so, for how long, the NSC does not say.
The NSC’s thinking is based on the assumption that Israel can do business with Abbas and moderate Palestinians, but not with Hamas.
To summarize:
1. Israel feared that Hamas may have won the upcoming elections in Palestine.
2. It also feared that Hamas could take over in the West Bank as it did in Gaza.
3. Thirdly, it believed that they can do business with Fatah but not with Hamas.
4. Therefore, elections should be postponed (an interesting position to take for a foreign power; neither Gaza nor the West Bank are officially part of Israel).
5. And Hamas should be weakened by a major Israeli offensive and replaced by Fatah, which is led by Mahmoud Abbas.
Hence the air strikes and the ground invasion today.
Meanwhile, and this is important to keep in mind: Hamas has started an offensive against Fatah supporters in Gaza. At least 75 Fatah supporters in Gaza were shot in their legs and / or their hands were broken in an attempt to keep them inside rather than outside on the street in order to take power when Hamas’ rule is broken. There is a major issue here: the internal struggle between Hamas and Fatah. It could very well become messy: if Fatah has any power and influence in Gaza it will try to take over ASAP. This will undoubtedly lead to one Palestinian faction killing another, and, therefore, even more suffering for the average Gazan.
It’s difficult for Hamas now, hopefully a more moderate government will take over and they will actually respect the cease fire this time.
Eventually the Palestinian people will have to realize that Hamas is the main problem. And that they will not be able to get rid of Israel without first ridding themselves of these violent gangs.
Want to point out that NSC is not that powerfull in Israel as it is in other countries. The Israeli Triumvirate* is making the decisions based on info and analysis from IDF intelligence, Mosad, Shabak etc…
However - the above analysis is quite accurate.
* Triumvirate: Ehad Ulmert (PM) Ehud Barak (Defence Minister) Zipi Livney (Foreign Minister)
Can I just say that regardless genocide is wrong, innocennt children being hurt, subjected to harms way, lied to having anything that is pure taken from them is wrong. Who is anyone to say that it is ok to wipe out an entire country withourt knowing all the facts. Instead of wiping out the fear of political and religious issues, why don’t we all re-build our allies with all nations under GOD sense that is what the arguments are all about and be true to yourself and your purpose. Fighting and living in constant fear is not an answer. Crossing over homeland security is scarey for everyone, I for one remember the girl in the picture, the PTSD many have suffered including myself, the constant stealing of things that are not ones to steal. I wish more than anything that we could all just live in peace with common and natural law. No Matter what country you are from we all oringinated from Pangia. We use to all be united as one nation under some understanding of beauty in the eyes of comfort knowing that there has to be something greater out there. You can feel it when looking at a sunset or sunrise, when you see your love, or even just a warm smile and a hello from a complete stranger who just so happens to deliver it to you right as you are ready to give up. I beg of everyone to please stop the daily constant search for more, and live in each and every moment that we are blessed with, because you never know when you may not be able to return the beautiful smile that YOU HAVE!!
It is worth noticing, that it was not Hamas that broke the cease-fire.
Israel never held it, by not opening the borders, and not fulfilling the demands made to them. Even so, Hamas kept the peace, though Islam Holy War(who were not a part of the cease fire) did fire a few rockets into Sderot, with limited effect.
The final breack was on November 4th - 6th, when IDF kidnapped and assasinated several Hamas officials.
Because of these thing, Hamas feel that their very serious attempts to be moderate towards Israel are being repayed with injustice.
As such they did not renew the cease-fire unless Israel could assure Palestinian safety from IDF official forces(Israeli militias were not included) and open aid corridors to Gaza.
It was after this Hamas unfortunately started fighting back, and attacking civillians, which is of course inexcusable, no matter how many or how few are killed, or for what reason.
I merely wish to point out that it was Israel, not Hamas that first breached the cease-fire, and Israel that are massacring civillians.