I published a post yesterday arguing that the Israeli air strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza were timed in accordance with the elections in Israel: a few weeks from now, Israelis will go to the voting booth in order to vote for Parliament. The right-wing Likud party is currently leading the polls, some 4 to 6 seats ahead of the ruling Kadima party. 

There is another element of timing to the offensive, however: the upcoming inauguration of now president-elect Barack Obama.

Obama will be sworn in January 20th. He is considered to be more moderate, less hawkish, and more pro-Palestine than President George W. Bush is. Bush is siding with Israel in the conflict, demanding an unconditional surrender from Hamas. 

His elected successor, however, has different views. It could very well be that if Israel would have launched the attack after Obama’s inauguration it would find itself reasonably isolated, with the U.S. voting for sanctions against the Jewish nation-state in the UN and pushing Israel by other means. 

It is an interesting question: did Israel attack Hamas at the end of 2008 and the start of 2009 out of fear that it would not be able to do so (with American support) after January 20th?

Meanwhile, Obama wisely refrains from commenting on the situation. He and his senior advisers have made clear that Bush is still president of the United States, not Obama. This means that Bush has to be the one to defend America’s interests. If Obama says something about the crisis now, he will end up confusing everyone involved and he will weaken his own country’s position.

Responding to the crisis could also weaken Obama’s position once in office and his ability to negotiate a possible peaceful solution for the Israel-Palestine conflict. If he says something now that Israel considers insulting or pro-Palestine, it will distance itself immediate from the U.S. after Obama’s inauguration. If, however, Obama supports Israel as Bush does he will automatically be dismissed by Palestinians, meaning that he will be seen as ‘yet another’ American leader who stands by Israel no matter what.

Since both options will hurt Obama, and since no position except for “I’m not the president” will do any good, Obama is wise to keep silent about the matter and to wait until it is resolved or until he takes office.